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The Challenge of Climate Change

Department of Meteorology. The Challenge of Climate Change. Director Grantham Institute for Climate Change. Royal Society Research Professor & Professor of Meteorology University of Reading. Brian Hoskins. Measurements of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide since 1957.

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The Challenge of Climate Change

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  1. Department of Meteorology The Challenge of Climate Change Director Grantham Institute for Climate Change Royal Society Research Professor & Professor of Meteorology University of Reading Brian Hoskins

  2. Measurements of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide since 1957

  3. Global & annual mean Temperature

  4. Global mean Sea Level

  5. Arctic Sea Ice Sea ice minimum area

  6. 20th Century Continental Temperatures: Observed & Modelled with&withoutanthropogenic forcings IPCC 2007

  7. Projections of globally averaged surface warming Different scenarios IPCC 2007

  8. Surface Temperature & Precipitation Projections Dec-Feb : 2090s relative to 1980-99

  9. “Irreversible” impact of 21st century emissions Temp rise Atmospheric CO2 Sea level rise Solomon et al., PNAS, 2009

  10. Impacts of global warming in different sectors • Water: increases & decreases; more exposed to water shortage • Ecosystems: species shifts & extinctions • Food: changes in possible crops; more reductions than increase in production • Coasts: increases in coastal erosion & flooding • Health: increases in malnutrition & infectious diseases; changes in e.g. malaria; increases in deaths from heat, floods & droughts, but decreases in deaths from cold • Increasing atmospheric CO2 also inevitably leads to increasing acidification of the ocean

  11. Tackling the anthropogenic climate change problem By emitting greenhouse gases to the atmosphere it is very likely we are perturbing the climate system in a dangerous way. What can we do? • Adapt to whatever happens: adaptation • Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases: mitigation • Do something else to compensate: geo-engineering

  12. Geo-engineering suggestions • Remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere • fertilise the ocean • artificial trees, land surface treatment 2. Reduce amount of sun’s energy absorbed Actual climate impact; other impacts; feasibility?

  13. UK Climate Change Bill (Nov 2008) • Commitment to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 • Established system of legally binding “carbon budgets” • Established the Climate Change Committee (CCC) as an independent body to provide expert advice on budget levels and the policies to reach them Dec 2008: CCC First Report Building a Low-Carbon Economy – The UK's Contribution to Tackling Climate Change www.theccc.org.uk

  14. GHG Emission scenarios & targets proposed by the UK Climate Change Committee, Dec 2008 Global emissions should peak before 2020 & drop rapidly after that. 0.8Tt Ce 1990-2010 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita in 2050 For the UK this target implies an 80% cut from 1990 levels: agreed by Parliament & now in UK law Supported by the G8 meeting in Italy Copenhagen in December????

  15. 695 Mt CO2e International aviation & shipping* UK non-CO2 GHGs Other CO2 Industry (heat & industrial processes) Residential & Commercial heat Domestic transport Electricity Generation * bunker fuels basis Appropriate UK contribution: the scale of the challenge CCC 2008 77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990) 159 Mt CO2e 2050 objective 2006 emissions

  16. UK CO2e emission targets Including aviation and shipping 42% below 1990 in 2020 (31% below 2005) 34% below 1990 in 2020 (21% below 2005) Interim Interim budgets accepted by UK Government & Parliament Intended if Copenhagen “sucessful”

  17. UK sectoral CO2 emissions path for 80% reduction at 2050? CCC 2008

  18. Feasible emissions reductions in UK Power Sector CCC 2008 • Renewable and nuclear • Preparation for CCS • Required policies • EU ETS development • CCS demonstration • Price/non-price policies to drive renewables

  19. European Institute of Innovation & Technology (EIT) 2-3 Knowledge and Innovation Communities (KICs) in ICT, Energy, Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Aim: step change in innovation capacity in Europe €270 M available over 4 years, with leverage of at least 3:1 Expected life-time 7-15 years AO April; 20 bids received by closing date (end of August) Top 9 invited for interview in Budapest 16 December Successful bids informed by end of December Announcement early January

  20. KICs will generate technologies and ideas to meet challenges of climate change: build innovative ‘webs of excellence’ create new business educate and develop entrepreneurial people have societal impact Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC) 20

  21. Temperature and greenhouse gases in past 650,000 y nitrous oxide carbon dioxide methane proxy for temp today time IPCC 2007

  22. Preferred trajectories: emissions target for 2050 CCC 2008 Broadly in line with the G8 commitment to halve emissions by 2050. Cumulative emissions perspective YearsGt CO2eTt Ce 1990-2008 800 0.22 1990-2050 2420-2540 0.66-0.69 1990-2100 3000-3200 0.82-0.87 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita in 2050

  23. 2. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere “Greenhouse” gases transparent to solar radiation opaque to thermal radiation determine height of layer from which heat escapes to space More greenhouse gases: higher level colder temperature less heat lost → global warming (water vapour), carbon dioxide, methane,… Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861)

  24. Break-up of Antarctic Ice Shelves Wilkins 2008 Larsen B 2002

  25. Some CCC emission scenarios peaking at 2016 and projections of CO2e and T for one case

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