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The Hubble Constant Current and Future Challenges

Roger Blandford KIPAC. The Hubble Constant Current and Future Challenges. Topics. Why do we care? How are we doing? How many (Hubble) flowers? Physics vs magic? Validation? What next?. Why do we care?. Serious questions require independent Ho Is the world flat?

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The Hubble Constant Current and Future Challenges

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  1. Roger Blandford KIPAC The Hubble Constant Current and Future Challenges KIPAC

  2. Topics • Why do we care? • How are we doing? • How many (Hubble) flowers? • Physics vs magic? • Validation? • What next? KIPAC

  3. Why do we care? • Serious questions require independent Ho • Is the world flat? • Neutrinos, neutralinos, neutonian gravity • Major discoveries still possible • New components of universe? KIPAC

  4. How are we doing? • Amazingly well! • Hard work • Convergence real? • We could all be measuring the same thing accurately!! KIPAC

  5. How many (Hubble) flowers? • Continue all approaches as of now • Surprising conclusion • Expect some efforts to cease to be viable • TACs, students, postdocs… will cease to be interested • Future Observations • Eg Planck, weak lensing, BAO, SN… • Future Experiments • Eg LHC neutrinos direct. Indirect dark matter detection • Future Telescopes • EgBigBoss… KIPAC

  6. Physics vs magic • CMB, SZ, BAO, reconstruction… • Well understood • SNIa, Masers… • Poorly understood • Lenses, TRGB, Populations, Cepheids… • Intermediate • Astrophysics • Galaxy structure, gas dynamics • Understanding physics • Enhances credibility • better control of systematics KIPAC

  7. Validation? • Scientific integrity • High moral character of astronomers! • Errors in answers to important questions quickly exposed • Choose between being castigated as a foolora knave • Need a protocal for deciding when to announce/publish • Analog of “five sigma” • Blind leading the blind? • Open boxes , distance challenges • Particle physicists vs astronomers • galaxies are like fundamental particles • Frequentist statistics • galaxies are like people (though not as easily classified!) • Bayesians – priors and evidence • Quality vs quantity • e.g. clusters/lenses vsSNIa/Cepheids • Picking cherries or making do with lemons? KIPAC

  8. What next? • Communique • Red(shift) brigade? • Second meeting? • 2-3 yr? • Thanks • Sherry, Stefan, Martha… KIPAC

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