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The IPCC 4 th assessment: Influence of Future Changes in Emissions

The IPCC 4 th assessment: Influence of Future Changes in Emissions on Atmospheric Chemistry by 2030. Jérôme Drevet - Isabelle Bey Frank Dentener - David Stevenson – Twan Van Noije And all modelers:.

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The IPCC 4 th assessment: Influence of Future Changes in Emissions

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  1. The IPCC 4th assessment: Influence of Future Changes in Emissions on Atmospheric Chemistry by 2030. Jérôme Drevet - Isabelle Bey Frank Dentener - David Stevenson – Twan Van Noije And all modelers: J.F. Müller, Arlene Fiore, Tim Butler, Michael Gauss, Didier Hauglustaine, Kengo Sudo, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Oliver Wild, Veronica Montanaro, Jose M. Rodriguez, Martin G. Schultz, Jean-François Lamarque GEOS-CHEM meeting 04-05-2004

  2. IPCC – AR 4 • The IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) will be completed in 2006. Chapter 7 will focus on Coupling between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. • 2 experiments are performed: • Experiment I (delta O3 - RF): Examines past changes in ozone (1850-2000) and for the future (by 2100) • Experiment II (AQ - climate): Examines changes in atmospheric composition by 2030 using a variety of models (CTMs and CCMs). • - tropospheric ozone • - N-deposition • - NO2 columns

  3. 24 Models MOCAGE FRSGC_UCI ULAQ GMIDAO GMICCM MOZECH LLNL MOZART4 STOCED UM_CAM CHASER CTM CHASER GCM IASB KNMI TM4 TM5 MATCH-MPIC-NCEP MATCH-MPIC-ECNWF UIO2 LMDz STOCHEM-HadGEM STOCHEM-HadAM3 GEOS-CHEM GISS GEOS v7.01.02 GEOS3 - 30 vertical levels 4°x5° horizontal grid resolution

  4. IPCC4 Scenarios

  5. Anthropogenic Emissions CLE-2000 CLE-2030MFR-2030A2-2030

  6. O3 annual zonal mean (CLE-2000) Annual Zonal Mean O3 S1 Mask O3>150ppbv Courtesy: David Stevenson

  7. O3 Budget (CLE-2000) Values in Tg O3

  8. Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S2-S1) -10 -5 0 5 10 ppbv Courtesy: David Stevenson

  9. Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S3-S1) -10 -5 0 5 10 ppbv Courtesy: David Stevenson

  10. Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S4-S1) -20 -10 0 10 20 ppbv Courtesy: David Stevenson

  11. Annual NOy Deposition (Tg N) Courtesy: Frank Dentener

  12. NOy Deposition (CLE-2000) GEOS-CHEM CHASER (FRCGC) MOZART4 (NCAR) TM4 (JRC) mg N/m2/year Courtesy: Frank Dentener

  13. NOy Deposition (S1) – zoom over Europe GEOS-CHEM CHASER (FRCGC) MOZART4 (NCAR) TM4 (JRC) mg N/m2/year Courtesy: Frank Dentener

  14. Wet Deposition / Total deposition Courtesy: Frank Dentener

  15. NOy Wet deposition Evaluation GEOS-CHEM Courtesy: Frank Dentener CHASER (FRCGC) R=0.78 M o d e l M o d e l R=0.81 0 100 200 300 400 500 ( mgN / m2 / year) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Observations - EMEF Observations - EMEF MOZART4 (NCAR) TM4 (JRC) R=0.70 M o d e l M o d e l R=0.84 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 ( mgN / m2 / year) Observations - EMEF Observations - EMEF

  16. Annual NHx Deposition (Tg N) Courtesy: Frank Dentener

  17. NHx Deposition (S1) GEOS-CHEM CHASER (FRCGC) MOZART4 (NCAR) TM4 (JRC) mg N/m2/year Courtesy: Frank Dentener

  18. Wet deposition/Total Deposition Courtesy: Frank Dentener

  19. N-Deposition in GEOS-CHEM: Comparisons between different runs

  20. NO2 column Courtesy: Twan Van Noije

  21. Conclusion O3 simulation : - GEOS-CHEM is in the middle range in general - Production and loss rates in the low range - Decrease in concentration for the MFR-2030 scenario in the very high range. Problem ? - In general it seems that the differences between all models are smaller than for the previous IPCC. Deposition : - NOy and NHX Global values and patterns in the middle range - Ratio wet deposition/total deposition in the low range. - Ratio wet deposition/total deposition varies a lot with the version of GEOS meteorological fields. - Sulfur deposition in the middle range

  22. The End

  23. Ozone Surface Concentrations S1-Sref S2-S1 S3-S1 S4-S1 ppb -20 -10 -5 -2 0 2 5 10 20

  24. Ozone Column S1-Sref S2-S1 S3-S1 S4-S1 DU -15 -7 4 2 0 2 4 7 15

  25. N Emissions IIASA-CLE-2000 NOx NH3 gN/year 0 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5

  26. NOx emissions S1-Sref S2-S1 S3-S1 S4-S1 gN/m2/year -5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5

  27. NOy deposition S1-Sref S2-S1 S3-S1 S4-S1 gN/m2/year -5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5

  28. NH3 emissions S1-Sref S2-S1 S3-S1 S4-S1 gN/m2/year -5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5

  29. NHx deposition S1-Sref S2-S1 S3-S1 S4-S1 gN/m2/year -5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5

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