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These Views Are Not Necessarily

These Views Are Not Necessarily. Those of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (or of any individual commissioner) 本文仅代表作者个人观点 不代表联邦贸易委员会或任何委员的观点. A Critical Look. At Critical Loss 对临界损失分析的一个审视. Three Goals of this Talk 本次讨论的三个目标. CLA Defined. How it is Used (and at times misused)

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These Views Are Not Necessarily

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  1. These Views Are Not Necessarily Those of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (or of any individual commissioner) 本文仅代表作者个人观点 不代表联邦贸易委员会或任何委员的观点

  2. A Critical Look At Critical Loss 对临界损失分析的一个审视

  3. Three Goals of this Talk本次讨论的三个目标 • CLA Defined. How it is Used (and at times misused) • 定义临界损失分析：如何使用（有时误用） • CLA: Special Cases • 临界损失分析：特殊情况 • CLA and Competitive Effects • 临界损失分析和竞争效应

  4. What Critical Loss Is临界损失分析是什么？ It is an effort to answer the following question: “Would a price increase of X percent be profitable?” 临界损失分析试图回答以下问题：“将价格提高X%是否有利可图？”

  5. The Pain vs. The Gain 提价的得与失 Price, Cost 价格，成本 Added  增加的利润 Lost  损失的利润 P1 P0 MC Quantity 产量

  6. Two Effects from Raising Price提价带来的两种效应 • a. Lower  from losing sales • a. 由于销量损失而失去的利润 • b. Greater on sales at higher prices • b. 由于提价而增加的利润 Enter CLA 进入临界损失分析 • If losses are < than some “Critical” amount, the X% price increase raises profits • 如果损失的销量小于某一“临界”数量，则X%的提价能够增加利润。

  7. Some Economics of Profit Maximization一些关于利润最大化的经济学 • Firms maximize profit by setting MR =MC • 企业通过设定边际收益 =边际成本取得最大利润 • This generates the following relationship: • (P-Marginal Cost)/P = 1 / (the firm’s demand elasticity) • 据此可得出以下关系： • Lesson: In general, when a firm’s price-cost margin is high, it doesn’t lose many sales from raising price a little. And, it doesn’t gain many sales when it lowers price a little • 经验：一般而言，当企业的价格成本利润率很高时，小幅提价不会损失很多销售量，小幅降价也不会增加很多销售量。 .

  8. Pretty Lady is Merging with Beautiful Fragrance漂亮女士与美丽香水的合并 • Profit-maximizing P, Pre-merger, is $100 for Both • 合并前双方的利润最大化价格都是$100 • Per unit Marginal Cost for Both is Constant at $75 • 双方每单位的边际成本恒为$ 75 • Price Elasticity of Demand Facing Pretty Lady is -4 • 漂亮女士所面临的需求价格弹性为-4 • One-quarter of Lost Pretty Lady Sales Go to Beautiful Fragrance • 漂亮女士所损失的销售量有四分之一被美丽香水收入囊中 • Critical Loss Unilateral Effects Question: • 临界损失单边效应问题： • Will the merged firm profit from a 5% increase in the price of Pretty Lady? • 将漂亮女士的价格提高5%，合并后的企业是否将会获利？

  9. Did you notice…你是否注意到… • That we just analyzed a merger’s competitive effect without first defining a market? • 我们刚才分析了一起合并的竞争效应，却没有先界定一个市场?

  10. Caveats & Non-Standard Applications注意事项和非标准应用 CLA: Price Increases > a SSNIP 临界损失分析：提价幅度>一个SSNIP CLA: Price Discrimination is Feasible 临界损失分析：价格歧视是可行的 CLA: Demand or MC Change Greatly as Output Changes 临界损失分析：需求或者边际成本随着产出的变动而大幅变动

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