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Deviations from common expected CC impacts The Oder/Odra estuary case study

Deviations from common expected CC impacts The Oder/Odra estuary case study. ASTRA Conference, 26-28 October 2006 Gdansk Holger Janssen, Gerald Schernewski, Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde & EUCC – The Coastal Union Germany In co-operation with: ARCADIS Rostock

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Deviations from common expected CC impacts The Oder/Odra estuary case study

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  1. Deviations from common expected CC impactsThe Oder/Odra estuary case study ASTRA Conference, 26-28 October 2006 Gdansk Holger Janssen, Gerald Schernewski, Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde & EUCC – The Coastal Union Germany In co-operation with: ARCADIS Rostock Staatliches Amt für Umwelt und Natur Rostock

  2. The Oder estuary and river basin

  3. Characteristics • Economy • Traditional branches like agriculture and fisheries in decline • Little industry • Maritime transit traffic (Harbour of Szczecin, Oder/Odra river) • Tourism most important economic sector • Gradients • Between east and west (German/Polish border) • Between coast and hinterland • Nature • Rich and diverse heritage • Eutrophication and water quality

  4. Characteristics • Coastal protection/Flooding • Sinking coast and sea level rise • Increasing likelihood of extreme floods • Integrated Coastal Zone Management • One of two national German ICZM case studies of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research • Case Study of UNEP-ICARM, LOICZ, UNESCO-IOC and EUCC – The Coastal Union

  5. River Coast Interactions • River and estuary contain many important and mostly protected ecosystems • The river is the central axis for migration and spread of species Natura 2000 areas Oder/Odra estuary region official named River Oder/Odra official named Poland Germany . Ríver/Channel/Estuary Shoreline National border after Röttger (2006)

  6. River Coast Interactions • The River Oder/Odra is an important traffic axis • The coastal zone is the gate for commerce, transport and tourism both with Poland and city of Berlin . Poland Germany . . Shoreline Border River transport Ríver/Channel after Röttger (2006)

  7. River Coast Interactions Pomeranian Bay N-load • The River Oder/Odra is one of the most important rivers of the Baltic Sea Region • Length: 854 km • Catchment area of 118.000 km² (with more than 15 million inhabitants, intensive agriculture and a variety of industries which cause high nutrient loads in the river) • These loads dominate coastal waters and cause eutrophication Run off Germany Poland . after Röttger (2006)

  8. Step 1: Survey • Expected Climate Change impacts for regions like the Oder estuary region (southern Baltic Sea coast), based on former research results and literature (e.g. IPCC reports, vulnerability studies, etc.) • Rising temperature • Change in precipitation • Rising sea level • Impacts on vegetation, biodiversity, agriculture, health etc.

  9. Step 2: Selection of sectors • Selection of regionally important and climate sensitive sectors (ecological and economical)

  10. Step 3: Regional climate • Regional climate projections, A1B (2071-2100 / 1961-1990) • e.g. REMO (by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology / Federal Environmental Agency) • e.g. WETTREG (by CEC GmbH) • Temperature • Summer: Rising temperature about 3°C, slightly higher on the Baltic Sea • Winter: Rising temperature about 3,5-3.8°C, nearly no days with average temperatures under 0°C • Change of precipitation: • average/year still 550mm • Summer: - 10-30%, nearly stable conditions on the coastline • Winter: + 10-20% both in the estuary region and the catchment area

  11. Step 4: Reg. impact assessment • Step 4: Regional impact assessment for selected sectors, partly based on ecosystem models like • for agriculture: ROTHC (Coleman et al., 1997) and IMAGE (biofuel demand) (IMAGE team, 2001) • for forestry: GOTILWA+ (Sabaté et al., 2002) and EFISCEN (Karjalainen et al., 2003) • for carbon storage: LPJ (Sitch et al., 2003; Thonicke et al., 2001; Venevsky et al., 2002) • for water (hydrological): Mac-pdm (Arnell, 1999; Arnell, 2003) • for conservation: BIOMOD (Thuiller, 2003; Thuiller, 2004) • Involvement of stakeholders to identify relevant indicators

  12. Step 4: Reg. impact assessment • Agriculture • Under the condition of dryness compensated by irrigation or the cultivation of adapted breeds agriculture could have stable or increasing crops yield instead of expected lessened crops because of dryness. • Production costs might rise because of irrigation which could shatter these advantages depending on global market developments. • Broad extension of vegetation period (approx. 2-4 days per decade). • Lessened crops on sandy soils possible (drought). • Loss of soil. • Increased photosynthesis of C3 plants increases crops if dryness is not limiting growth. • Decline of fungi and other humidity dependent pathogens. • Variation of climate from year to year makes adaptation of breeds difficult. • …

  13. Step 4: Reg. impact assessment • Fishing industry • Impacts of Climate Change differ from species to species. Fishes like cod with spawn in oxygen-deficient water layers are more affected than species with spawn in surface waters. • A second deviation is the migration of alien species which will not be started by Climate Change but is already an ongoing process that could be pushed by raising temperatures. • Decline of fish and mussel population because of decreasing oxygen concentration (freshwater as well as Baltic Sea). Not all species are affected comparably by oxygen decrease which could cause regime shifts. • Due to a rising water temperature single species will have a reduced reproduction. • Migration of sensitive sea species to north into cooler and deeper waters. • Warmer waters will enhance the migration process of alien fish and mussel species. • …

  14. Step 4: Reg. impact assessment • Forestry • Drought as an impact of Climate Change has no general influence on trees (groundwater level). • In the Oder/Odra estuary region spruce is affected by Climate Change while there is little impact on other trees. • Also an increasing risk of forest fires is not anticipated. • Furthermore higher CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will increase photosynthesis but an influence on tree growth is doubtful. • Extension of vegetation period (approx. 2-4 days per decade). • Replacement of spruce by pine or broad-leafed trees. • In principal rising danger of forest fires, no significant impact expected. • Increasing attacks by pests (e.g. bark-beetles). At dry areas spruce forest dieback threatens. • …

  15. Step 4: Reg. impact assessment • Tourism • As the Oder/Odra estuary is actually part of moderate climate zone positive impacts on tourism have been expected. • In addition the risk of flooding in the southern Baltic Sea because of a sea level rise seems to be controllable and land loss a minor problem. • Water quality for bathing will be no problem concerning coliform bacteria, algae bloom as an effect of eutrophication could cause a negative aspect for tourism. • Extended bathing season due to warmer waters in late summer and early autumn (temperature inertia of water). • Private investments in additional tourist infrastructure and attractions can be expected. • Changes in landscape and coastal zone are probable. E.g. due to sea level rise and pursuant coastal defence measures. • Public and private investments in adaptation of tourist infrastructure could become necessary at the shoreline (as a result of coastal defence). • Increased risk of algae bloom during tourism season. • …

  16. Step 4: Reg. impact assessment • Sea level and coastline • Sea level rise and erosion are not the only impacts on the coastline. • Estuary regions like the Oder/Odra estuary region where the river basin underlies the Climate Change impact of precipitation shift could get under pressure by Coastal Squeeze, river floods from one side and sea level rise from another side.

  17. Step 4: Reg. impact assessment • Coastal Squeeze Higher precipitation during wintertime in the river basin area raises the risk of floods by the River Oder. Together with a raised sea level and an increasing risk of storm tides the islands Usedom and Wolin get under pressure from two sides, the estuary and the sea side. River floods transport freshwater and loads of nutrient and harmful substances into the lagoon and the bay. Impacts on water quality, eutrophication, species and algae bloom.

  18. Step 4: Reg. impact assessment • Vegetation, biodiversity • Drought as an typical impact of Climate Change has only limited influence (high ground water level). • If irrigation is affordable the vegetation will benefit from extended vegetation periods and rising photosynthesis. • Internal eutrophication in the Szczecin Lagoon has serious effects on algae bloom in coastal waters with influence on beach tourism. • Impacts on biodiversity in the Oder/Odra estuary region are limited. All ecosystems are already subject of strong anthropogenic influence. Instead of loss of biodiversity a further increased migration of alien species will be an impact of Climate Change.

  19. Step 4: Reg. impact assessment • Water quality

  20. Possible impact of Climate Change in the Oder/Odra estuary:Internal eutrophication 1.1 1.3 1.8 2 Median concentration of phosphate [µmol PO4-P/l] in August (period 1980-91) 9.3 9.4 11 8 5.8 7.9 Data: Gerrman/Polish measurement programme by LUNG and WIOSZ 7.1 6.5 6.8 8.6 7.7 2 3 1 25 25 3 m 7.4 20 20 / P 15 15 l o m 10 10 m Depth (m) 5 5 0 0 90 90 90 91 91 91 90 90 90 90 91 91 91 91 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 90 90 90 91 91 91 89 89 89 0 1 2 3 4 25 3 m 20 5 / P 15 l o 6 m 10 10 m 7 5 5 8 0 0 6 90 91 90 91 89 89 90 91 89 9 5 6 4 1 3 2 4 5 Step 4: Reg. impact assessment Relase of phosphorus up to 400 t Phosphor from sediment during warm summer periods phosphorus release from sediment under anoxic conditions.

  21. Data: LUNG (D) und WIOSZ (PL) 0.39 Plume of the River Oder/Odrain the Pomeranian Bay 0.48 0.42 0.47 2.2 2.6 2.2 3 3.2 3.4 3.4 4 4.6 3.3 5.2 Median concentrations of PO4-P (µmol /l) in June (period 1980-91) 5.2 Siegel et al. 2000

  22. 15894 15427 Pt [t/a] 16000 Pdiffus [t/a] 13243 12502 12000 10336 8612 8537 ? 7306 8000 6049 4000 384 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 backgr. 116322 Nt [t/a] 113006 120000 106880 101693 Ndiffus [t/a] ? 94071 90501 90000 75274 66200 60000 50211 30000 3884 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 backgr. Loads of the River Oder/Odra • Decline of intensive algae blooming during summer was observed in the last decade • How will the future be (R&D)?

  23. Step 4: Reg. impact assessment • Water quality • Changed or increased eutrophication processes are a serious impact of Climate Change on water quality in the Oder estuary region. • Eutrophication due to increased run-off and swirled up sediments has nearly no effect in this region (Eisenreich (2005)). • Internal eutrophication and changes in the regulatory chain of river-lagoon-bay might have considerable impacts on the Baltic Sea and especially on bathing in coastal and lagoon waters. • Impacts on algae blooming during tourism season, impacts on fish reproduction.

  24. Summary & Conclusions • Regional climate projections contain uncertainties, • these uncertainties are also part of vulnerability assessments. • Migration of alien species already today is a continuous process and could increase further while the loss of biodiversity should be limited as the water supply is secured due to high ground water. • Reduced nutrient loads of the River Oder/Odra during summer (decreased precipitation) should increase the water quality in the Szczecin Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bay.

  25. Summary & Conclusions • But the effect of internal eutrophication counteracts this reduction of nutrient loads. • Impacts of Climate Change (as they can be anticipated so far) differ from region to region – e.g. differences between coast and hinterland. • More research is needed. • Assessment to • activate stakeholders • clarify main fields of regional Climate Change impacts and interactions

  26. Thank you! Holger Janssen, Gerald Schernewski Seestrasse 15 18119 Rostock Germany Fon: ++49 (0)381 5197-207 Fax: ++49 (0)381 5197-440 holger.janssen@io-warnemuende.de gerald.schernewski@io-warnemuende.de http://www.ikzm-oder.de

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