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What Is the Current State of Air Pollution?. Roy L. Smith, Ph.D. US Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Research Triangle Park, NC smith.roy@epa.gov. Introduction. About me Topics covered by this presentation:
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What Is the Current Stateof Air Pollution? Roy L. Smith, Ph.D. US Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Research Triangle Park, NC smith.roy@epa.gov
Introduction • About me • Topics covered by this presentation: • Fragmentation of air pollution programs and its influence on how much we know (or don’t know) • Criteria air pollutants (“principal pollutants”) • Sources of data • Trends • Projections • Hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, or “air toxics”) • As above, but contrasted • The aging of America • Demographic shifts • Migration • Mobility • As related to health risks associated with air pollution
Clear Skies: Risk Projections • Reductions in fine particles and ozone1 under Clear Skies would improve public health. By 2020, Americans would annually experience approximately: • 14,100 fewer premature deaths; (An alternative estimate projects 8,400 fewer premature deaths) • 8,800 fewer cases of chronic bronchitis; • 23,000 fewer non-fatal heart attacks; • 30,000 fewer hospitalizations/emergency room visits for cardiovascular and respiratory symptoms; • Included in this total are 15,000 fewer hospital and emergency room visits for asthma. • Included in this total are hundreds of thousands fewer respiratory symptoms and illnesses for asthmatics, including approximately 180,000 fewer asthma attacks. • 12.5 million fewer days with respiratory illnesses and symptoms, including work loss days, restricted activity days, and school absences.
1999 1990 2010 2020 HAP Contributions to Tox-Weighted Emissions for Cancer 1990 1996 2020 2010
HAP Contributions to Tox-Weighted Emissions for Noncancer Effects
Components of the NATANational-Scale Assessment Dose- Response Assessment Emission Air Inhalation Risk Inventory Emission Dispersion Exposure Assessment/ Development Processing Modeling Modeling Characterization (EMS-HAP) (ASPEN) (HAPEM) Comparison with Ambient Concentration Monitoring
What We Know: Demographics of Aging, and How They Influence Exposure to Air Pollution
Summary • State-of-the-art • Air pollution programs fragmented by law and institutional history • Criteria pollutants separated from toxic pollutants • Level of knowledge varies widely: • Criteria > HAPs • Cancer > noncancer • Health > eco • Analyses and projections tend to be specific to decisions rather than general to the entire program
Summary • Criteria Pollutants • O3 and PM present most of the health risk • Emissions and ambient levels: • Have improved substantially over the last 10-20 years… • …despite huge growth in population, GNP, and energy use • Information quality • Vast monitoring network, > 1000 stations for most important • Annual emission inventories • Regular analyses of past AQ trends • Sporadic projection analyses that generally show substantial further improvements are attainable
Summary • Hazardous Air Pollutants • MACT program has decreased emissions… • ca. 3-fold by mass • ca. 2-fold by toxicity-adjusted mass • Made most gains in major and mobile sources • Emission projections show gains starting to erode by 2010 • NATA • First analysis of entire air toxics universe • Identified most important HAPs nationally (benzene, acrolein, POM, butadiene, Cr, naphthalene, chlorine, etc.) • NATA too new to determine trends • NATA not yet used for projections • First use due soon, however • Unlikely to overestimate actual exposures
Summary • Interaction of air pollution with aging population • More people >65 than ever before; trend continuing • Exposure to air pollution may differ because: • Different behaviors • Relocation pattern & representation in population • Tendency to live in areas of moderate air pollution • Less likely to relocate • Longer exposure durations • Less likely to leave the house • Exposure moderated less by daily activity patterns • Different gender makeup • Potentially more susceptible to health effects