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2. Reversing the Democratic Deficit Richard Jenkins Vice President, Corporate Director of Public Opinion Research Name of presenter(s) or subtitle

3. Methodology • Nationally representative survey of 1018 Canadian adults, aged 18 and over. • Conducted by telephone between May 31 and June 6, 2004 (early campaign). • Poll results accurate to within 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. • All numbers rounded.

4. Turnout in Federal Elections: 1962 to 2005 • Idiosyncratic fluctuations before 1993 have given way to deep decline in voter turnout. Source: Elections Canada

5. Why do people vote? And why might voters have turned away after 1988? • Theories of voter turnout seem inadequate. • Electoral system • Rational actors • Postmodernism/cultural change • Education, more educated • Idiosyncratic factors • “Liberal” Effect • Challenge: • At individual level voting is a choice that some people make when faced with competing demands on their time.

6. Eroding “Commitment” to Voting • A psychological segmentation based on three dimensions How do people rate the alternatives? In other words, satisfaction. needs fit Involvement in the category How important is this choice… how much does it matter? How certain are people – are there many, or few reasons to change? ambivalence

7. Strength of commitment to voting n:1018 % Shallow Convertible Entrenched Average What the segments mean AT RISK Uncommitted, should be considered at risk NON VOTERS Highly uncommitted COMMITTED Strongly committed to voting, unlikely not to vote LIKELY Committed, but not as strongly Read: 4.7% of all respondents are entrenched to voting Note 7% were not classified (not included in base)

8. Self-Reported Vote Intention vs. Commitment • Self-reports identify the completely disengaged

9. Who is Committed? • Demographics • Age: 39% of those 18-24 are non-voters vs. 9% of seniors • Education • Why are so many at risk of not voting? • Disengagement from politics • A rejection of the parties/leadership • Problems with the electoral system

10. Tuning out…is politics less interesting today? • Interest in the federal election average 5.7 on a 0-10 point scale. • One in four Canadians are engaged in the election. • Linear relationship between commitment and interest. • One in four “often” discussed federal election in the past week. • Half (49%) think that politics and government is too complicated and this is related to commitment.

11. Interest in Federal Election

12. It’s the fault of political parties… • No surprise, parties and politicians generate negative evaluations. • Parties not seen as good at presenting clear choices, finding solutions, or expressing concerns of ordinary people. • Parties don’t keep their promises. • Sense that government doesn’t care is key for understanding non-voters and at risk.

13. Rating Politicians in Canada Extremely positive Extremely negative Q: When you take into account everything that you expect from politicians and political parties, how do you rate the politicians of Canada as a whole, on a scale from one to seven where one is extremely negative and seven is extremely positive?

14. Political Party Performance How good a job do political parties in general do of…. % quite or very good job

15. Responsiveness of Parties and Elected Officials Political parties keep their promises All parties are the same % most/some of the time % agree

16. Responsiveness of Parties and Elected Officials Elected soon lose touch Government does not care % agree % agree

17. Is turnout a good measure of democratic health? • Satisfaction with democracy is not eroding like turnout • At risk voters are, however, much less satisfied. • Does low turnout even matter? • Non-voters have different views and economic interests. • Non-voters, if they voted, could impact on party that wins. • But, there is disjunction between elections and government.

18. Satisfaction with Democracy in Canada Trend since 1997 By Commitment % very/fairly Note: 1997 and 2000 from Canadian Election Studies (campaign surveys)

19. Vote Intention by Commitment

20. Commitment to Vote and Expressed Party Preference • Among those who express party preference (including leaners), Liberals have slightly more committed base. Minor parties clearly suffer from irrelevance

21. Diluted or wasted votes…are elections irrelevant? • Only 30% of Canadians say that their vote hardly counts for anything. • Believed particularly by non-voters but not a key driver. • Voting does matter to some; 69% say that you forfeit your right to criticize if you don’t vote. • Even non-voters agree.

22. Reversing the trend… Solutions? • Commitment to do something different amongst politicians. • What will motivate change? • Better governance will reinvigorate democracy. • Electoral system reform • Can changing the rules of the game for parties/media & voters infuse public discourse? • Can elections be made relevant to postmodern citizenry?

23. Likely About 1 in 4 fit into this group of skeptical participants Committed Small segment that represents the “political class” Realistic Non-voters One in four are so cynical that it would create dissonance to vote. “At Risk” Lacking interest and disengaged from their government and parties, but seeing some value in their vote