1 / 12

Roadmap for SPECA Ministerial Meeting, Baku 1-2 December 2010: Social and Economic Challenges in SPECA Countries

This paper discusses the social and economic challenges faced by the SPECA countries in Central Asia. It explores the impact of the global economic crisis on human development indicators and highlights the potential for sustainable development through regional cooperation. The paper also emphasizes the role of trade in promoting economic growth and human development.

bremner
Download Presentation

Roadmap for SPECA Ministerial Meeting, Baku 1-2 December 2010: Social and Economic Challenges in SPECA Countries

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. AfT Roadmap for SPECA Ministerial Meeting, Baku 1-2 December, 2010 Social and Economic Challenges in SPECA Countries Balázs Horváth, Practice Leader, UNDP, Europe and the CIS Bratislava Regional Centre Bratislava, 20 May 2010

  2. Central Asia: Key region in Eurasia

  3. While there is common inheritance… Soviet legacy left many difficult challenges Geography: all Central Asian countries are landlocked Russia only large market with transport access China, India: farther, transport routes inadequate To the closest EU countries is about 3,000 km There are significant national differences Size (area, population, GDP) Resource endowment Income level Market reforms Economic and political stability Central Asia is not a homogenous region

  4. The effect of the global economic crisis ranges from large to none… Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2010

  5. But the broader impact on HD may be substantial, lasting, hitting mostly the poor • Paper by 3 authors in BRC—on ECIS region as a whole • Panel estimate: income elasticities of 12 HD indicators 29 ECIS countries, 1989-2008 • poverty rates, • unemployment, • incidence of diseases, • under-five mortality, • life expectancy, • crime rates. • Then: projecting HD indicators using GDP forecasts

  6. Potential Impact of the Crisis Male life expectancy at birth, years

  7. Potential Impact of the Crisis Poverty $5 at 2005 prices

  8. The region has huge opportunities… Huge natural resource endowments * oil, gas production already considerable * large reserves remaining * other mineral wealth * massive hydropower , solar & wind potential Young population, generally good education levels  Potential for: * dynamic labour force * competitive economy * demographic dividends, rather than time-bomb In past decade: expanding fast Growth economies now closer: China, India, Turkey, each other…

  9. …but in some SPECA countries, per capita GDP remains very low Per-capita GDP, in US$, PPP terms, 2008 Source: World Development Indicators

  10. To fulfil potential and to reach sustainable development: regional cooperation needed • To promote trade and investment: • Harmonized, predictable regulatory and legal framework • stable economic growth for all people & all territories • new, well-paying and sustainable jobs • poverty reduction, social inclusion • To promote joint interests, better manage/handle • shared water, energy and environmental resources (e.g. Aral Sea) • common infrastructure • common challenges:environment, health, disaster preparedness • labour migration • illicit drug trafficking; crime and terrorism.

  11. In focus at this Conference: Trade and Human Development • Trade can be a powerful source of economic growth & HD • It can bolster broadly based growth & progress toward MDGs; • Better resource allocation (efficiency, job gains) can raise growth and lead to poverty reduction & HD. • Final note: growth necessary but not sufficient for HD (GHDR).

  12. Thank you for your attention… Balazs.Horvath@undp.org • United Nations Development Programme, • Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, • Bratislava Regional Centre • http://europeandcis.undp.org

More Related