The End of History?

1. The End of History? Democracy and Democratization

2. I. The Fukuyama Thesis • "What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.“ – Francis Fukuyama, 1989 • Is democracy in the process of becoming universal?

3. II. What is democracy? • Elements of standard definitions • Process – Elections • Behavior – Peaceful transitions, Voting • Institutions – Formal limits to executive power • Conditions – Rights, Rule of Law • Values – Tolerance, Majoritarianism Note that some of these contradict each other (Majoritarianism vs. Minority Rights)  Must pick and choose what really matters…

4. B. Quantitative measures • Institutions: The Polity project Note the 5 dimensions

5. Polity’s Take on the USA

6. The World According to Polity

7. 2. Rights: Freedom House • Uses definitions of rights taken from Universal Declaration of Human Rights • Focuses on two types of freedom: • Political Freedom: the right to vote, compete for public office, and elect representatives who have a decisive impact on public policies • Civil Liberties: freedoms of expression and belief, associational and organizational rights, rule of law, and personal autonomy

8. The Map of Freedom, 2009

9. 3. Process and Behavior: The Index of Democratization a. Competition: 100 - % of votes for largest party • Variable will be low in single-party regimes • Variable will be high in genuine multiparty regimes • Maximum score allowed is 70 (largest party received 30% of votes) b. Participation: % total population that votes

10. 4. High Correlation Between Measures of Democracy 100 = perfect direct relationship

11. a. Consensus: Democracy on the Rise

12. b. Rules and Exceptions • Rule: Process, Conditions, Institutions, and Behavior are related  few countries have one aspect of democracy without the others • Exceptions: Which countries manage high grades on one index but low ones on another?

14. C. Characteristics • Persistence: Democracies tend to endure longer than other government types Graphical proof: Historical probabilities that a perfect 10 on the Polity democracy scale remains a 10 the next year, ten years, etc.

18. 2. Better Public Policy • Democratic peace: Democracies don’t fight other democracies, are less prone to civil war, are less prone to democide (government killing its own citizens), and may be less likely to go to war. • Social welfare: Democracies spend more on health and education, reduce infant mortality more quickly • Economic growth: Democracies practice free trade, probably grow more quickly

19. 3. Tolerance a. Findings: Longevity of democracy increases tolerance, even after controlling for • Pre-existing support for democratic ideals • Political participation • Interest in politics • Gender • Age • Education

20. b. Evidence: Intolerance of Disliked GroupsThe most disliked groups are…

21. Allow non-criminal disliked group to…

22. 4. Human Rights

23. a. Autocratic Transitions: Terror Peaks and Declines

24. b. Democracy Falters: Terror Peaks and Declines

25. c. Democratization: Terror Declines -- No Wave of Terror

26. III. What causes democratization? • Creation of new states (rarely): 42 new states created from 1957-1972, but only 8 are democratic in 1972 • Transformation of existing regimes (usual route). What triggers regime change in autocracies?

27. 1. Economic Growth. Disagreement over why… • Inequality hypothesis – Economic growth reduces inequality, which makes democracy less threatening to wealthy elites

28. b. Asset mobility hypothesis: Where elites shift from immobile assets (estates, oil wells, mines) to mobile assets (manufacturing, services), democracy is less threatening

29. c. Middle class hypothesis • Growth forms middle class, which then seeks limited democratic reform. As wealth spreads to poor, system becomes more democratic • Elites fear revolution, so prefer to make concessions as opponents grow stronger (i.e. have higher incomes)

30. d. Trend is long-term: Don’t expect miracles from prosperity

31. 2. Elite Factionalism Hypothesis • When elites in nondemocratic systems divide into factions, one faction may have an incentive to broaden participation in order to overcome its rival

32. 3. Social Changes • Reduction of “categorical” inequality – Not just economic, but other types of inequality based on categories like caste, race, tribe, etc. • Development of social trust – people willing to accept state power as protection (rather than clan, tribe, or patron-client relationships) • What might produce such changes in nondemocracies? Possible mechanism…

33. 4. Violence • Civil War – Has the potential to undermine existing networks of trust and promote dependency on the state • External threat – Has the potential to create incentives for removal of categorical distinctions • Problem: Violence tends to beget violence, which undermines democracy

34. 5. Nonviolent protests • Surprisingly effective, especially against anocracies • Problem: We’ll never know where protests might have been effective if tried (selection bias)

36. C. Regime Imposition

37. 1. Can Regime Be Imposed? • Clear answer = Yes. Plenty of examples of long-term regime change imposed from outside (Germany and Japan after World War II) • Most wars and interventions do not result in regime change

39. 2. When does regime type imposition occur? • Great power politics – Most regime changes imposed by great powers • Government type defines coalitions – World politics is ordered around domestic institutional choices: Catholic vs. Protestant, Monarchy vs. Republic, Democracy vs. Fascism, Capitalism vs. Communism • Democratization requires decision of conqueror and successful implementation. Example: US military intervention

41. d. Membership in IOs Increases Democratization. Why?

42. D. Modes of Transition: Prospects for Success • Pact: Old elites make deals with new (popular) elites. Examples: Poland and Hungary after Communism • Highest prospects for successful democratization • Tends to produce limited democracy, excluding those without a seat at the table

43. 2. Reform: Government pre-empts revolution with concessions • Unstable: If revolutionaries remain strong, they demand further reforms. If they become weak, government revokes reforms. (19th century monarchies and 1848) • Greatest odds of success = revolutionaries divided into moderate and radical wings AND moderates fear radicals nearly as much as government

44. 3. Revolution: Opposition takes control by force • Can be bloodless – East Germany 1989, Czechoslovakia 1989, Serbia 2000, Georgia 2003 • Often preserves elements of old regime: institutions (Ukraine), officials (Romania) – generally occurs when intra-governmental enemies ally with revolutionaries • On average – more likely to generate retaliation against supporters of autocracy

45. E. Obstacles to Democratization

46. 1. Isolation: States linked to global economy more likely to democratize

47. 2. Authoritarian Learning: Waves of democracy followed by crackdowns • Recent “color revolutions” in Central Asia occurred in semi-autocracies • Autocrats in other countries observed this and shut down civil society  complete autocracy (Belarus, Zimbabwe) • Kyrgystan 2005: President Akayev warns against any “Color Revolution”  represses demonstrators with force, but revolution succeeds (known as Tulip Revolution) • Iran 2009: “Green Revolution” crushed. State remains opposed to crowds, retains military loyalty

48. IV. Obstacles to Democratic Consolidation A. Closed Economies (Isolation)

49. B. Poverty and Inequality