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Ageing, health and retirement in the EU What have we learned from the AGIR Project

Ageing, health and retirement in the EU What have we learned from the AGIR Project. N. Ahn, R. Génova, J. A. Herce and J. Pereira ENEPRI – European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes FEDEA – Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada www.enepri.org – www.fedea.es herce@fedea.es

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Ageing, health and retirement in the EU What have we learned from the AGIR Project

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  1. Ageing, health and retirement in the EUWhat have we learned from the AGIR Project N. Ahn, R. Génova, J. A. Herce and J. Pereira ENEPRI – European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes FEDEA – Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada www.enepri.org – www.fedea.es herce@fedea.es 10th March 2005 Are we living longer and in better health? The AGIR project - WP1 The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  2. Structure of the presentation: • Population, births and mortality since 1950 • Longevity • Lifecourses • Health and disability • Ageing and health • Concluding comments The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  3. 1. Population I The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  4. 1. Population II The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  5. 1. Births I The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  6. 1. Births II The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  7. 1. Mortality I The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  8. 1. Mortality II The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  9. 1. Mortality III The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  10. 2. Longevity I The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  11. 2. Longevity II The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  12. 2. Longevity III Jeanne Calment (1997) The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  13. 2. Longevity IV The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  14. 3. Lifecourses The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  15. 4. Health and disability I Problems with self assessed health status The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  16. 4. Health and disability II The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  17. 4. Health and disability III The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  18. 4. Health and disability IV The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  19. 4. Health and disability V The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  20. 4. Health and disability VI The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  21. 4. Health and disability VII The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  22. 4. Health and disability VIII The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  23. 5. Ageing and health I The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  24. 5. Ageing and health II Predicting LEGH trhough LE? (Males at 15) The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  25. 5. Ageing and health III Predicting LEGH trhough LE? (Females at 15) The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  26. 5. Ageing and health IV • Two scenarios for Adjusted LEs: • CRM or “Constant Relative Morbidity: It implies keeping constant the ratio of years lived in good health (or bad health or free of disability) to the number of years lived (Stable weights) • CAM or “Constant Absolute Morbidity: It implies equating any gain in life expectancy (in years) to an equal number of years lived in good health (or free of disability) (Compression Hypothesis) The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  27. 5. Ageing and health V The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  28. 5. Ageing and health VI The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  29. 6. Concluding comments • European populations have been ageing since the first demographic transition ended before mid of XX century. The “second demographic transition” has made ageing more apparent. Survival has increased considerably and will be the leading driver of future ageing. • Longevity has been the result of compressed mortality rather than of extended limit to human life. Whether life endurance increases steadily, survivors ratios at extreme ages have increased manifold in last decades. • Lifecourses have evolved thus that number of working years is becoming closer to number of years after leaving activity. This heralds a much distorted future balance between “assets” and “liabilities”, or resources and needs of any kind (pensions, health, dependency) both at individual and aggregate levels. The AGIR Conference - Brussels

  30. 6. Concluding comments • Assessing health status is a puzzle. Countries compare badly and time trends are difficult to discern from either national health surveys or the ECHP. However, there is a general pattern of health (or disability) adjusted life years keeping track with gains in unadjusted life expectancies. • A sophisticated projection of adjusted life expectancies cannot be done on the basis of the data available. Rather what can be done is to build scenarios that do not contradict plainly observed trends. Both CRM or CAM scenarios show that as life expectancy of Europeans increases, few more years free of health or disability impairments could also be at their hand. But that is not granted. The AGIR Conference - Brussels

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