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Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games

This study explores the strategies and payoffs involved in the terrorist and smuggling games. It discusses factors considered, probabilities of capture or interception, and the value of different locations. The optimal strategies in special cases are also analyzed.

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Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games

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  1. Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games James G. Taylor OR Department Naval Postgraduate School April 27, 2004

  2. Terrorist Game • Counter-Terrorist Seeks to Minimize His Loss • Factors Considered • Probability Capture Terrorist If Guard • Probability Terrorist Blows Himself Up If Captured • Value of Location • Damage When Terrorist Blows Himself Up • Attack Failing Is Negative for Terrorist Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games

  3. Payoff for Terrorist Game Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games

  4. Payoff in Special Case Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games

  5. Optimal Strategiesin Special Case • Counter-Terrorist Guards Higher-Value Location More • Terrorist Focuses on Attacking Lower-Value Location More (Because It Is Not Defended) Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games

  6. Smuggling Game • Counter-Smuggler Seeks to Maximize Loss of Smuggler • Factors to Be Considered • Value of Shipment • Probability of Intercept If Guard Route • Cost of Sending Shipment on Route Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games

  7. Payoff for Smuggling Game Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games

  8. Payoff in Special Case Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games

  9. Optimal Strategiesin Special Case • Counter-Smuggler Guards Higher-Probability-of-Intercept Location Less (Because Smuggler Avoids It) • Smuggler Focuses on Sending Shipment on Lower-Probability-of-Intercept Location More Investigating the Terrorist and Smuggling Games

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