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International Relations (13) Korean Nuclear Power/Weapons

International Relations (13) Korean Nuclear Power/Weapons. 2009. 12. 1 김 병 구 bkkim9@gmail.com. History of First Nuclear Tests. 1945 USA ( Trinity ) 1949 USSR ( Fat Man , Kazakhstan) 1952 UK (Australia) 1967 China (Sinkiang) 1968 France (S. Pacific)

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International Relations (13) Korean Nuclear Power/Weapons

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  1. International Relations (13)Korean Nuclear Power/Weapons 2009. 12. 1 김 병 구 bkkim9@gmail.com

  2. History of First Nuclear Tests • 1945 USA (Trinity) • 1949 USSR (Fat Man, Kazakhstan) • 1952 UK (Australia) • 1967 China (Sinkiang) • 1968 France (S. Pacific) • 1974 India (Smiling Buddha, Rajasthan) • 1998 Pakistan • 2006 NK (Poonggye)

  3. Nuclear Arms Race (2004 inventory) • Russia : 16,000 • USA : 10,350 • China : 400 • France : 350 • UK : 200 • Israel : 200 • India : 30 ~ 35 • Pakistan : 24 ~ 48 (1987 peak: USSR ~ 40,000, USA ~ 20,000)

  4. US/RUS New Initiatives • “4 Knights” recommendation(2008.1) • Perry/Nunn(Dem), Kissinger/Schultz(Rep) • Obama NW disarmament, highest priority “US first to develop and use, moral obligation” • Accelerated START-2 revision (2009.4.1. Obama/Medvedev Joint State.) • UN Security Council Summit (2009.9.24) UNSCR 1887: World without NW

  5. Goal of a World without NW • Nuclear security summit, April 2010 • Strengthen NM control international regime • US/RUS to lead by example • Prep meeting called, Dec. 3, Tokyo • NPT Review Conference, May-June 2010 • “NW have’s” may gain moral ground • Obama wins 2009 Nobel Peace Prize

  6. Nuclear Weapon Free Zones • Antarctic zone : Antarctic Treaty • Latin America : Treaty of Tlatelolco • ASEAN region : Treaty of Bangkok • Africa continent : Treaty of Pelindaba • S. Pacific region : Treaty of Rarotonga • Central Asia region : Treaty of Almaty • NE Asia region : (Limited NWFZ-NEA?)

  7. Special Case of NK • 1985 Signed NPT • 1992 SG Agreement with IAEA, first crisis • 1994 Agreed Framework, KEDO Project • 2002 IAEA/NPT withdrawal, second crisis • 2006 Nuclear test (Poonggye) • 2007 6-Party Talks, resolution agreed

  8. The Yongbyon nuclear sites White squares are antiaircraft positions

  9. The 5 and the 50 MWe reactors Reactor Fuelstorage

  10. Discharged fuel in baskets

  11. Yongbyon’s reprocessing facilities

  12. Current Status of 6-P Talks (2008-) • Shut-down, dismantle of 5MW cooling tower • Elimination from US terror country list • IAEA inspectors on Yongbyun site • Verification process underway • Heavy oil supplied (half) • First ROK nuclear expert visited Yongbyun (2009.1) • Nuclear brinkmanship continues • NK/US talks under “Grand Bargain”

  13. Bilateral Talks may lead to • Reopening of the 6-Party Talks • Negative security assurance • Diplomatic liaison offices in capitals • Energy assistance to NK • NK moratorium on nuclear/missile tests • IAEA verification, rejoin NPT, etc.

  14. Global Nuclear Renaissance • 439 NPPs in 31 MS in operation (2008) • Delivering 15% of total world electricity • 33 NPPs in 13 MS under construction • 32 NPPs closed down, under decommissioning • Nuclear suppliers global conglomerates • PWR : AREVA (Framatom+Siemens) EPR Westinghouse (Toshiba + ABB-CE) AP-1000 Korea (Doosan + ?) APR-1400 Russia (AEP) VVER-1000

  15. World Nuclear Power Forecast • Installed capacity 1970 15 Gwe 1990 300 Gwe 2010 380 Gwe 2030 570 Gwe (low) 700 Gwe (high) - major growth in Asia, Russia expected -

  16. Nuclear export – Korean Dream • New NPP market • Turnkey project supplier • Components supplier • Existing NPP market • Replacement components supplier • Service contracts • Nuclear fuel market • Reload core, fuel components supplier

  17. Nuclear Export – Korean Dream(2) • Research reactor market • Turnkey, replacement LEU fuel, service • Nuclear medicine market • Cancer diagnosis/treatment, medical cyclotron • Expert consulting service • IAEA peer review missions, etc.

  18. Light/dark contrast in the Peninsula

  19. Summary • New window of opportunity for major NW disarmament • Day and night contrast in Korean peninsula, caused by nuclear • NK nuclear issue – the Achilles tendon • Global nuclear Renaissance is coming • Korean opportunities from experts to exports

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