Walid Saleh, Ph.D , PEng Head, MENA Regional Programme Mukhtar Hashemi , Ph.D , PEng

1. Walid Saleh, Ph.D, PEng Head, MENA Regional Programme MukhtarHashemi, Ph.D, PEng Associated Researcher Newcastle Institute for Research on Sustainability, NIReS THE SCIENCE-WATER POLICY INTERFACE

2. introduction: why relevant? • Throughout the WANA region water scarcity is a common theme. • Low aridity index and high population growth rates; • Both projected to get worse due to climate change; • Also so-called “youth bulge” in the WANA region coming to fore; • And the so-called “Arab Spring” led by the youth; • Therefore, addressing the water scarcity challenge will be central to successfully achieving sustainable economic growth.

3. introduction: why relevant? • Water resources management policies and institutions at a national level show mixed effectiveness. • The laws and legislations present in the WANA region are commonly lacking key elements of contemporary integrated water resources management (IWRM) principles; • Inadequate implementation and enforcement of existing legislation; • Lack of information and capacity; • Successful implementation of legislative require significant investments in capacity development, particularly creation and strengthening of policy-focused institutions.

4. introduction: why relevant? • Water resources management policies at regional scale are non-existent. • While there are numerous efforts to initiate dialogue both at the level of the Arab League and smaller sub-regions (e.g., the GCC region); • There are few existing tangible examples of cooperative and cohesive policy formulation that would trickle down from regional to national and sub-national scales; • No effective supranational framework exists today that would tackle issues at regional or sub-regional scale and provide substantive inputs.

5. introduction: why relevant? • Lack of regional policies to deal with water resources, in the face of increasing stresses, could open the door to water insecurity. • The consequences of the lack of water security could include a direct threat to food and energy security; • Food production, as the largest fraction of water consumption in the WANA region, which represents for example 78% of water usage in the GCC countries, would be directly impacted as water availability further reduces; • It is often argued that food insecurity, coupled with water insecurity, could also contribute to large-scale political unrest – numerous examples of public protests in 2011 over rising food prices are a case in point. • However, the notion of all-out wars over water resources alone remains a very unlikely prospect; as no historic assessment or present research has been able to substantiate the prospects of the so-called “water wars”.

6. introduction: why relevant? • Multilevel Water Scarcity: The need for A Science-Water Policy Interface • One of the main obstacles to implementing IWRM is institutional inadequacy; • In other words, a lack of workable policies in addition to inadequate consideration for ethical and cultural dimensions in policymaking process. • In the WANA region, where water scarcity is a fact of life, the national water institutions need to be re-oriented to cater for the needs of changing supply-demand and quantity-quality relationships in the emerging realities.

7. introduction: why relevant? • Multilevel Water Scarcity: The need for A Science-Water Policy Interface • There is a need for an interface to link scientific knowledge systems and policy making decisions. An interface is defined as a mechanism of framework to link to systems; be able to exchange, use or process the information. Water scarcity in the WANA region is multilevel (World Bank, 2007) including: • Governance level: lack of transparency in decision-making • Organizational capacity level: inability of organizations to effectively manage water resources • Physical resource level (water shortage, water stress conditions, temporal and seasonal

8. introduction: why relevant? Water scarcity in the WANA region is characterized by dynamic socio-economic and political, climatic, technological and resource availability changes. Finding a science–water policy interface is vital therefore to enhance the policymaking process in the region. Policymakers have to consciously change their assumptions. Hence, a single water policy cannot deal effectively with the multilevel water scarcity issues and hence there is a need for integrated enabling assessment tools to achieve adequate policy decision outcomes i.e linking scientific and technical evidences with policymaking appraisal tools.

9. introduction: why relevant? A science-water policy interface defines points of interaction, interplay and inter linkage between technical and social or non technical frameworks. This process is required to harmonize scientific evidences in policymaking decision. This can be achieved by linking socio-political and technical assessment frameworks by using different theories and frameworks to form a single conceptual framework

10. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH • First, we need to consider the meaning of the framework and differentiate it from theory and model. • Secondly, there is a need to appreciate the implications (and advantages) of the use of different theories and frameworks to form a single conceptual framework. • Some might criticize this approach of combining various theoretical frameworks in a single conceptual methodological framework to be “an internally contradictory and messy approach, with a limited explanatory capacity”. • However, we need to appreciate that these frameworks are non-mutually exclusive and there are interfaces or points of contacts between them; hence they can be conceptually linked to each other.

11. Components of the Integrated Methodological Framework Figure 1: integrated methodological approach to attain science-water policy interface

12. Components of the Integrated Methodological Framework The integrated methodological framework (Figure 1) consists of the following components: Perspective framework: • Polices to deal with water scarcity in WANA region are influenced by cultural and ethical aspects which represent a dimension of the community attributes which has to be considered in any policy analysis exercise. • On the above basis, it is argued that it is vital to incorporate ethical perspectives into integrated institutional and technical frameworks for better water resources management under water scarcity. • The ethical aspects of decision/policymaking have two elements: first, the human elements of ethics that deals with human perspectives and second, a cultural context of ethics.

13. Components of the Integrated Methodological Framework The latter relates to the environment in which decision making takes place. Human perspectives (theoretical, economic, atheistic, social, political and religious)are not mutually exclusive and so a man can have multiple perspectives at the same time (Spranger, 1928). Usually, simple questions have no or very difficult answers such as ‘how much water should be allocated to the environment?’ They are simple in linguistic form but very hard to answer and require many negotiated deliberations and often decision makers make mistakes on these types of simple-looking questions. The perspective framework acts like a mental model has an important role and can have inputs into both analytical and conceptual frameworks by measuring cultural and ethical influences on policy-making decisions.

14. Components of the Integrated Methodological Framework • IWRM Conceptual framework can provide interfaces with institutional, socio-economic and physical environment subsystems of the water resources and can be linked to the analytical frameworks; • Analytical frame works: It is recommended to use • DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) socio-technical assessment framework to study change, predict future trends, assess impacts of policies on the water resources systems and provide alternative options • Institutional analysis and Development (IAD) Framework which is a multi-level analysis framework and is useful as it can link local with higher decision levels.

15. Components of the Integrated Methodological Framework • The IAD framework is not a rigid framework and can be used in a variety of situations depending on the stakeholders (actors) and action situations. It can be used to design supranational institutional mechanisms(polices, administrations etc.) • Decision Support systems (DSSs) and tools: The primary role of technical and empirical evidences is to educate the policy-makers about the nature of the problem and provide evidence for policy-making and not to legitimize policy. • These include process, planning and evaluation models and statistical and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDA) tools.

16. Interactive and internet based stakeholder participation platform with DSS performance assessment (uncertainty and risk analysis) tools within a graphical user interface (GUI) shell. All stakeholders should be given a voice and be heard without prejudice and advantage and should be involved in discussing the trade-offs. Participation provides legitimacy for a given policy (Hendriks, 2005) and enhances the ownership and general acceptance of a given policy. Participation platforms should have clear boundary and position rules for the participants.

17. Linking Institutional and Technical components • Need to interlining Institutional and Technical components • Lack of implementation – due to neglect of institutional aspects Example : • Developing governing principles for sustainable land and water (natural resources) governance system

18. Governing Principles Equilibrium Constituted by legitimate governing authority Respect for the Biodiversity Benefit must be greater than its societal costs No harm to nature and no excessive use Avoid causing undue hardship for the people Conservation of Resources Pertaining to the public welfare Foster Sustainable Development Social Justice Balanced Economic Growth Conservation of Resources Environmental Protection • Rule-Obligation-Theory & Islamic Legal Theory • Are Embedded within the Hima Principles

19. Governing Principles The Ethical principles which is based on HDV: Optimal utilization of the resources based on appreciation, i.e. no excessive use Equitable use and distribution based on Justice Environmental integrity based: on condemning aggression, harm, and abuse Environmental sustainability principles Based on reverence for natural resources Institutional principles recognize The role of the state in providing basic needs, The role of the voluntary sector to contribute to socio-economic and non-material development of the community, and The devolution of Hima management within the local community. Good governance Principles Principles provide a framework for the adequate management of the natural resources in Hima zones

20. Acknowledging and understanding rights of each other in terms of nationality • Conflict Resolution should lead to peace Regional Conflict Resolution Model • Ethnic, cultural • Loyalty and kinship • Gender, peaceful existence • Mutual consultation process • Reform: I only desire reform to the best of my ability • Betterment of conditions: The best thing to do is what is for the people reconciliation and good

21. RECOMMENDATIONS Considering ethics in policymaking: Incoherent goals and objectives are sometimes blamed perceptions, belief and culture (Loucks & van Beek, 2005). A Central question in policy appraisal is how to take environmental issues into account in decision making process? Ethical [value-laden, moral, religious] considerations have been the backbone of environmental agenda, (Healy et al, 1994). Ideas such as carrying capacity, ecological footprints and environmental space can relevance for policy (Pearce, 2000). How can we apply equity principles (Millennium Development Goals, MDG) in natural resources decision making? The answer is to integrate ethical aspects (e.g. equity) and socio-political realties (e.g. human needs) into socio-technical and empirical assessment tools to provide one coherent set of procedures for determining human concerns (health, amenity, resource depletion etc.).

22. RECOMMENDATIONS DSSs are not for policymaking: Past research indicates that decision makers are becoming more is a quest for developing comprehensive DSSs; certain end-users expect the so called ‘super’ software which can make decisions with a click of a button i.e. they require instantaneous answers to extremely intricate situations. DSSs are not off-the-shelf software packages but they are interactive multi-stakeholder decision-making platforms. A DSS is not a tool for making-policy but it is a tool to facilitate an informed, transparent and participatory decision-making process.

23. RECOMMENDATIONS • Living with uncertainty: • The Scientific uncertainty of any analytical assessment may limit the authority of scientific knowledge in policy making (Hashemi and O’Connell, 2011) The scientific ambiguity serves both policymakers and scientists: it can be used as an alibi in accounting for a lack of policy effectiveness. However, this should not affect the importance of the scientific knowledge in decision making as uncertainty is a byproduct of analyzing complex issues.

24. RECOMMENDATIONS The way forward: institutional design for Supranational policy options The interface can be employed to evaluate merits of different supranational (regional) cooperation mechanisms or policy options which cannot be a result of ad-hoc processes. Supranational mechanisms should adhere to design principles which characterize “long-enduring institutions for governing sustainable resources” and are a measure of their robustness and ability to “adapt and learn to many social, economic and ecological disturbances” (Ostrom, 2005).

25. RECOMMENDATIONS The way forward: institutional design for Supranational policy options These 8 principles are: 1. Clearly defined boundary and position rules for participation 2. The cost of new polices should feature in the assessment of benefits and costs to the communities in different parts of WANA region 3. Participation platform for those communities affected by a policy to be able to participate to modify it.

26. Design Principles continue 4. A monitoring system is required with executive and enforcement powers to implement policies across the region 5. Graduated sanctioning for non-compliance 6. A conflict resolution mechanism has to be incorporated 7. Minimal recognition of rights to organize referring to Ostrom’s notions of the right of users to devise their own institution and their long term tenure rights 8.Nested enterprises within supranational mechanisms: Polycentric systems (smaller nested enterprises in larger supranational organization) can have a greater robustness. This will blend local knowledge with scientific information and allow for more efficient governance systems

27. Thank You