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犯罪心理になれよう 2002 年後期・ 第１回

犯罪心理になれよう 2002 年後期・ 第１回. 行動計量学研究分野　Ｂ３ 松田淑美. 文献. Multivariate Applications in Substance Use Research -New Method for New Questions 1999 Jennifer S.Rose,Laurie Chassin, Clark C.Pression,Steven J.Sherman

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犯罪心理になれよう 2002 年後期・ 第１回

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  1. 犯罪心理になれよう2002年後期・第１回 行動計量学研究分野　Ｂ３ 松田淑美

  2. 文献 Multivariate Applications in Substance Use Research-New Method for New Questions 1999 Jennifer S.Rose,Laurie Chassin, Clark C.Pression,Steven J.Sherman 1. A Latent Curve Framework for the Study of Developmental Trajectories in Adolescent Substance Use Oartrick J.Curran 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  3. 目的 • adolescent substance useの原因 • peer socialization • peer selection • bidirectional influence 　　←peer socialization＋peer selection • conventional statistical model • theoretical modelとstatistical modelのミスマッチ どれ？？ 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  4. つづき • research questionにこたえる • もっとも適したstatistical modelをみつける • 潜在曲線モデル 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  5. six research questions Q1(Q3),What are the characteristics of individual differences in developmental growth trajectories of adolescent(or peer) alcohol use over time? Q2(Q4),Are individual differences in developmental growth trajectories of adolescent(or peer) alcohol use systematically related to the child’s age,gender,or parental alcoholism diagnosis? 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  6. つづき Q5,How are individual differences in developmental trajectories of adlescent alcohol use related to individual differences in developmental trajectories of peer alcohol use? Q6,Are earlier levels of adolescent alcohol use predictive of later development trajectories in peer alcohol use,and are earlier levels of peer alcohol use predictive of later development trajectories of adolescent alcohol use? 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  7. 要するに • Q1&Q3 • 個人差 • Q2&Q4 • 属性による差 • Q5&Q6 • peer alcohol useと adolescent alcohol useの関係 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  8. Description of Data Sets • Adolescent and family Development Project (AFDP) • longitudinal study of a large sample of children and their parents • 両親or片方の親がalcoholicと診断されている子ども・・・children of alcoholics;COAs • 両親とも alcoholicと診断されていない子ども・・・controls;CONs 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  9. つづき • Time1:454 adolescents、10.5～15.5歳(M=12.7,SD=1.45)＆their parents • COAs,N=246 CONs,N=208 • Time2:Time1の99%(449名) • Time3:Time1の98%(445名) ☆97%(442名)は3回とも回答 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  10. つづき　 • どの時点においても自身と仲間の substance use がないと回答した回答者は分析に含めない • 経時変化をみたいので • 最終的にN=363 • 平均年齢(Time1)=12．9歳 • 56%=COAｓ • 48%=女性 • 25%=Hispanic､75%=non-Hispanic Caucasian 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  11. Measures • 年齢 • Time1の時点での • 性別 • 男：１、女：０ • 両親もしくはどちらかのアルコールの乱用or依存 • 有：１、無：0 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  12. つづき ①How many of their friends drank alcohol occasionally ②How many of their friends drank alcohol regularly • 過去12ヶ月に関して • それぞれ0(none)から5(all)の6段階で回答 • ①と②の合計がpeer alcohol use得点 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  13. つづき ① frequency of consumption of 5 or more drinks in a row (？？) ② frequency of consumption of beer/wine ③ frequency of consumption of hard liquor ④frequency of getting drunk • 0(not at all)から7(every day)の8段階 • 合計がadolescent alcohol use得点 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  14. 相関行列 Means,Standard Deviations,Univariate skewness and Zero-Order Correlations for all Predictor and Criterion Variablles Note:Absolute values of correlations greater than r=.19 represent a per-test p<.002 and a familywise p<.10.Statistics based on N=3.63. 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  15. Conventional Fixed Effects Model • まずは，traditionalな方法で分析 • データの概要がつかめる • 潜在曲線モデルとの比較もできるし • auto-regressive,cross-lagged(ARCL)panel model(Dwyer,1983) • 経時変化をみるための(線形)モデル？？ • 重回帰分析、SEM 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  16. Time2 Time3 Time1 つづき • ARCLモデルはthe stability of a construct over timeを推定できる • across time/within-construct predictions =stability coefficients , stabilities • さらに across time/ across-construct =cross-lagged Time1 Time2 Time3 Time1 Time2 Time3

  17. モデル作成 • 年齢,性別,親のalcoholism→peer alcohol use､adolescent alcohol use(Time1) • stabilities • 同一時点ではかったものの間の相関 • 誤差に共分散 • cross-lagged • LM検定 • 年齢→Time2 Peer Alcohol Use • 性別→Time3 Peer Alcohol Use

  18. Time1 Adolescent Alcohol Use Time2 Adolescent Alcohol Use Time3 Adolescent Alcohol Use Time1 Peer Alcohol Use Time2 Peer Alcohol Use Time3 Peer Alcohol Use .53 .59 -.34 Adolescent Age -.14 .50 .17 .23 .14 Adolescent Gender -.17 .24 .17 Parental Alcoholism Diagnosis .17 .48 .41 • χ^2=29.3,df=14,p=.01,TLI=.97,CFI=.99,RMSEA=.055 • 標準解,すべて有意(p<.05) • ☆Covariances among the within time disturbances of the repeated measures are not shown. 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  19. ARCLの限界 • 全ての回答者を単一のパラメータで説明 などなど ⇒（個人の）経時変化の個人差を説明できない • Let’s now consider an alternative analytic approach 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  20. 参考文献 • 狩野裕・三浦麻子 AMOS,EQS,CALISによるグラフィカル多変量解析‐目でみる共分散構造‐第二版 2002現代数学社 • ｢共分散構造分析の基礎と実際｣2002講義資料 犯罪心理になれよう-２００２後期

  21. づづく

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