AO Forum 9 th May 2013 Milton Hill House Hotel, Oxford

1. AO Forum 9th May 2013Milton Hill House Hotel, Oxford ‘Future shock’ for AOs – the only constant – change!

2. “Future shock”: • “The shattering stress and disorientation • that we induce in individuals by subjecting • them to too much change in too short a time, • the dizzying disorientation brought on by • The premature arrival of the future!” • Alvin Tofler 1970

3. Aims for this session: • Review the current AO environment • Brief analysis of core issues • Identifying key strengths/opportunities • Some predictions! • Discussion!

4. Our regulated environment: • 176 recognised AOs • 10 surrendered recognition in 2012 • 2 more AOs were in process of • surrendering at end of 2012 • Robust entry criteria • 1 accepted in May 2012 • 2 more through the first phase of • submission

5. Benefits of regulation: • Quality assured products – confidence for • learners & employers • Regulated products meet high standards • Listing of all qualifications on the register • Enhanced standing of qualifications in • potential overseas markets

6. ‘Where are we now?’- PEST/LEID Analysis: • Political • Economic • Social • Technology • + • Legal • Environmental • International • Demographic

7. Politics!

8. Some current issues – impact: Qualifications for 16-19 Richard review of Apprenticeships Heseltine Review Skills funding Whitehead Review

9. Qualifications for 16-19: • New programmes from Sept 2013 • Funding to follow learner • English, Maths, ‘A’ level or ‘substantial’ VQ • DfE currently consulting on which VQs will be • performance tables (min 150 GLH) • 3 types: ‘Academic’, ‘Applied General’ • & ‘Occupational’ • FAB responding

10. Richard Review of Apprenticeships: • HMGs response now out – generally supportive • Agreed that: • Employers take a primary role • Ensure all apprenticeships are rigorous • & responsive to employers’ needs • Consultation needed on how to turn • vision to reality – respond by 22 May • FAB draft now out – respond by 17 May

11. Heseltine Report – ‘No stone unturned’: • HMG now accepted almost all recommendations • LEPs best placed to decide funding priorities • for skills • Local needs must be paramount for FE • Single Local Growth Fund – watch out for the • next spending review announcements!

12. Skills Funding: • Revised funding proposals – sometimes at short • notice • Withdrawal of funding for qualifications with low • or zero enrolments • Common AO interests represented by FAB/JCQ

13. UKCES Whitehead Review of Adult Qualifications in England: “For individuals the aim is that vocational qualifications will be valued as a passport into and through a career; and for employers, the aim is for vocational qualifications to be a recognised brand” Matthew Hancock, MP, Minister for Skills, BIS

14. Whitehead aims: • Vision for adult qualifications? • How to achieve it? • Perceived issues: • Unused/underused qualifications • Links to Labour market • Development times & flexibility of design • Reducing public funding – increasing need for • employers to invest directly

15. Whitehead process: • April – Consultation and review of data • May – Focus groups and on-line survey • June – initial report to Minister • August – final report published

16. Whitehead AO action: • FAB is on the case – watch out for • consultation events • Important that individual AOs & professional bodies • give their feedback • Direct to UKCES to Tom.Martin@ukces.org.uk • Before the 31 May

17. ECONOMIC • Avoiding the triple-dip – just! • Services – led • Austerity v infrastructure spend?

18. SOCIAL • Employment, employment, employment!

19. TECHNOLOGY • Vital business enabler • ‘lifeblood’ of AO business • Regulatory, RITS, ULN • Highly significant investment • High customer impact • Key differentiator

20. ‘The next big thing?’ – MOOCs? • ‘Massive On-line Open Courses’ • Accessible any time • Free • Open content • HE-led at present • High initial volumes • Low completion rates – so far • Future impact ?

21. MOOCs development stages:

22. LEGAL: • AOs operate in highly regulated market – high stakes game! • Ofqual sees itself more like an ATC service not the AAIB! • Ofqual’s four cornerstones: • Guidance • Sanctions • Monitoring • Entry to the regulated market

23. ENVIRONMENTAL • Good business sense! • Reduction in adverse foot-print • Impact of technology • Impact on customers

24. INTERNATIONAL: • Opportunities! – e.g.: • Kazakhstan • India • China • Brazil • Worldwide English language tests – . min 2,400 tests pa in at least 40 countries

25. INTERNATIONAL: • Key priorities: • Research, research, research! • Use existing supports/resources, eg: British Council/FAB • Within powers & scope? • Single entity? • Joint venture/partnership? • Realistic legal & accounting advice • Ability to manage long distance & long-term investment • CARE!

26. DEMOGRAPHIC • Youth priorities • Unrealistic expectations • Quality of careers advice/LMI • Ageing population profile • 4 country dynamic

27. Dakota Sioux tribal wisdom: “When you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount”

28. Dealing with dead horses, more common approaches in the UK: • Buy a bigger whip • Change riders • Form a committee to study the dead horse • Arrange visits to other sites to see how they do it • Spend more on training to improve our riding skills • Harness several dead horses together for increased speed • Provide additional funding to increase horse performance • Hire contractors to ride the horse more cheaply • Appoint a consultant! • Revisit the performance requirements for dead horses • Sell the dead horse to Tesco’s • Promote the dead horse

29. Remember FAB! • Annual Conference: • 11th & 12th November 2013 • Chesford Grange, near Warwick

30. Thanks for listening! John Mac • mobile: 07879 477448 • e-mail: jmcna16@aol.com