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Winter 2018/19 Review

This report provides an overview of the winter weather conditions, energy demand, and peak loads for the 2018/19 season. It also includes a review of the electric system operations and cold weather operations during this period.

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Winter 2018/19 Review

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  1. Winter 2018/19Review APRIL 25, 2019 / PAC MEETING Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) MarkBabula SYSTEM PLANNING – RESOURCE STUDIES AND ASSESSM ENTS ISO-NEPUBLIC

  2. Table ofContents • Winter 2018/19Review • - Weather, Energy and PeakLoads • - Electric System Operational Review • - Cold Weather Operations • Martin Luther King Holiday: January 20 – 22, 2019 • Second Cold Snap: January 31 – February 2, 2019 • - Natural Gas OperationsReview • Issues and Incidents at Power Stations • Force Majeure & Operational Flow Orders (OFOs) • - Natural Gas Supply-Side Review ISO-NEPUBLIC 1

  3. WINTER 2018/19 WEATHER, ENERGY AND PEAKLOADS ISO-NEPUBLIC ISO-NEPUBLIC 2

  4. Winter 2018/19 Weather, Energy andPeakLoads* • December 2018: Warmer than previousDecember • Monthly Heating Degree Days of 976.3 is 15.9% lowerthanDecember2017 • Energy demand of 10,496 GWh is 5.6% lower than December2017 • Peak load of 18,408 MW is 10.3% lower than December2017 • Peak load occurred on December 18, 2018 at HE 18:00 at 27OF and 10ODWPT • January 2019: Warmer than previousJanuary • Monthly Heating Degree Days of 1,189.9is 1.8% lower than January2018 • Energy demand of 11,033 GWh is 4.4% lower than January2018 • Peak load of 20,740 MW is 0.4% higher than January2018 • Peak load occurred on January 21, 2019at HE 18:00 at 4OF and-9ODWPT • (*) – All data obtained from the ISO-NE Net Energy and Peak Load Report locatedat: • https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/reports/load-and-demand/-/tree/net-ener-peak-load ISO-NEPUBLIC 3

  5. Winter 2018/19 Weather, Energy and PeakLoads* - cont’d • February 2019: Colder than previousFebruary • Monthly Heating Degree Days of 986.2is 19.2% higher than February 2018 • Energy demand of 9,627GWh is 2.6% higherthan February 2018 • Peak load of 18,547MW is 1.3% higherthan February 2018 • Peak load occurred on February 1, 2019at HE 19:00 at 16OF and -3ODWPT • March 2019: Warmer than previousMarch • Monthly Heating Degree Days of 903.5 is 0.33% lower than March 2018 • Energy demand of 9,836 GWh is 1.2% lower than March 2018 • Peak load of 17,837 MW is 5.3% higher than March 2018 • Peak load occurred on March 6, 2019at HE 19:00 at 20OF and -2ODWPT • (*) – All data obtained from the ISO-NE Net Energy and Peak Load Report. ISO-NEPUBLIC 4

  6. ELECTRIC SYSTEM OPERATIONAL REVIEW ISO-NEPUBLIC ISO-NEPUBLIC 5

  7. System Operations – December 2018 Emergency Procedure Events (OP-4, M/LCC 2, Minimum Generation Emergency) NPCC Simultaneous Activation of Reserve Events ** - Preliminary operations data based on EMS Telemetering (non-revenue quality metering)

  8. System Operations – January 2019 Emergency Procedure Events (OP-4, M/LCC 2, Minimum Generation Emergency) NPCC Simultaneous Activation of Reserve Events ** - Preliminary operations data based on EMS Telemetering (non-revenue quality metering)

  9. System Operations – February 2019 Emergency Procedure Events (OP-4, M/LCC 2, Minimum Generation Emergency) NPCC Simultaneous Activation of Reserve Events ** - Preliminary operations data based on EMS Telemetering (non-revenue quality metering)

  10. System Operations – March 2019 Emergency Procedure Events (OP-4, M/LCC 2, Minimum Generation Emergency) ** - Preliminary operations data based on EMS Telemetering (non-revenue quality metering)

  11. COLD WEATHER OPERATIONS Martin Luther King Holiday(January 20 – 22, 2019) ISO-NEPUBLIC ISO-NEPUBLIC 10

  12. Cold Weather Operations - January 20-22, 2019 • New England was affected by a Cold Snap between January 20th and January 22nd • Several major cities in New England had daytime high temperatures that were their coldest on record for Monday January 21st • The 8-city New England mean temperature on January 21st was only 4.4°F, which was 21.2°F below the normal of 25.6°F, resulting in the peak load day of the 2018/19 winter season • In addition, on January 20th a severe winter storm produced heavy inland snow, sleet and ice while coastal areas received heavy flooding rains and high winds

  13. New England Mean Temperatures Compared To Normal January 15-25, 2019

  14. Arctic Cold Snap January 20-22, 2019 - Boston Highlights • In the weeks leading up to the Cold Snap, temperatures in Boston varied from above to below normal. • An Arctic front arrived on 1/20 bringing the coldest air of the 2018/19 winter season. • A strong Nor’easter (Harper) accompanied the Arctic air on the 20th and produced heavy snow and ice in Boston’s western suburbs and much of interior New England. Variable Temps Arctic Air

  15. High Temperatures on January 21, 2019 were Record Cold - Worcester Registered a Record Low for the Date

  16. Generator and Transmission Performance • Overall good performance from generation fleet and transmission system • No emergency events • Peak generation on January 21, 2019 fuel mix as shown • Approximate peak generation: • 1,700 MW from oil • 8,500 MW from natural gas

  17. COLD WEATHER OPERATIONSSecond Cold Snap (January 31 – February 2, 2019)

  18. Second Cold Snap January 31 - February 2, 2019 • New England was affected by a second brief cold snap of the winter from January 31st through February 2nd • The 8-city, New England mean temperature on January 31st was 6.5°F, 19.0°F below the normal of 25.5°F • On February 1st the New England mean temperature was 11.1°F, 14.5°F below the normal of 25.6°F • On February 2ndthe New England mean temperature was 16.2°F, 9.5°F below the normal of 25.7°F

  19. New England Mean Temperatures Compared To Normal January 28 - February 3, 2019

  20. Natural Gas Demand and LNG Supply • High gas demand on three days • Scheduled deliveries of gas for 1/30, 1/31, 2/1 • 1/30/19: ~4.408 Bcf/d • 1/31/19: ~4.686 Bcf/d • 2/01/19: ~4.503 Bcf/d • Includes both gas LDC consumption and power generation scheduled gas

  21. Weekly Generator Oil Burn

  22. Fuel Diversity Pie Chart Summary

  23. NATURAL GAS OPERATIONSREVIEW ISO-NEPUBLIC ISO-NEPUBLIC 22

  24. Natural Gas Operations Review –Issues andIncidents at Power Stations • December2018: • 2gas system issues and 2incidents at generatingstations • January2019: • 5 gas system issues and 6 incidents at generatingstations • February 2019: • 2 gas system issues and 2 incidents at generatingstations • March 2019: • 16 gas system issues and 2 incidents at generatingstations • Total Winter Period (December 2018 – March 2019): • 25gas system issues and 12incident at generatingstations ISO-NEPUBLIC

  25. Natural Gas Operations Review –Declarations of Force Majeure &OFOs • Algonquin Gas Transmission (AGT) ForceMajeure:None • AGT OFOs: Nine (9) • 2018: Dec 3-7, Dec 7-14, Dec 17-20, Dec 24-28, Dec 29-31 • 2019: Jan 6-Feb 2, Feb 6-Mar 8, Mar 9-Mar 14, Mar 21-Mar 28 • Iroquois Gas Transmission System (IGTS) ForceMajeure:None • IGTS OFOs: Eight (8) • 2018: Dec 9-11, Dec 11-14, Dec 18-20 • 2019: Jan 10-14, Jan19-22, Jan 26-Feb 2, Feb 26-27, Mar 5-7 • Portland Natural Gas Transmission System(PNGTS) Force Majeureand OFOs: None ISO-NEPUBLIC

  26. Natural Gas Operations Review –Declarations of Force Majeure & OFOs –cont’d • Maritimes & Northeast (M&N) Pipeline Force Majeure:None • M&NOFOs:Four (4) • 2018: Dec 3-20, Dec 24-26 • 2019: Jan16-Feb 2, Feb 8-Mar 9 • Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) ForceMajeure: None • TGP OFOs (Alltypes): Nine (9) • 2018: Dec 7-14, Dec 18-19 • 2019: Jan 10-14,Jan 17-23,Jan 24-Feb 3, Feb 9-13, Feb 17-21, Feb 26- Mar 9, Mar 4-9. One Meter Specific OFO on a powergenerator in January 2019. ISO-NEPUBLIC

  27. Natural Gas Supply-Side Review • Effective December 31, 2018, Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) completed their permanent production shutdown. • Deep Panuke supply shut down around May 8, 2018 and entered a permanent production shutdown on May 18, 2018. • There are no remaining significant sources of Atlantic-Basin gas-supply on the M&N Canada pipeline. • The majority of onshore supply of natural gas to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia will be via the M&N pipeline and will be metered at Baileyville, ME. ISO-NEPUBLIC 26

  28. Natural Gas Supply-Side Review – cont’d • Well timed deliveries of LNG helped keep natural gas prices from skyrocketing during high demand periods*** • - The Canaport LNG Terminal sendout averaged: • 0.69 Bcf/d from January 20-21, 2019 • 0.77 Bcf/d from January 30-31, 2019 • - The combined sendout from Northeast Gateway and Distrigas averaged: • 0.58 Bcf/d from January 20-22, 2019 • 0.72 Bcf/d from January 30-31, 2019 • A record sendout of 0.83 Bcf/d on February 1, 2019 • *** - All information obtained from the US EIA ISO-NEPUBLIC 27

  29. ISO-NEPUBLIC 28

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