1 / 18

The future of electromobility ?

Vehicle R&D at CEVT. The future of electromobility ?. Dr. Börje Grandin Director Hybrid Technologies. Legislation one driver for new CO 2 technology!. Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact. Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future

brock-snider
Download Presentation

The future of electromobility ?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Vehicle R&D at CEVT The futureofelectromobility? Dr. Börje Grandin Director Hybrid Technologies

  2. Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology! Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future Conclusion: Technology for reaching low CO2 must be adopted to a global market.

  3. Fuel consumption can be reduced in 4 areas – New technology influence all 4 areas positively Fuel consumption reduction, 4 steps Product Planning 2. Using Energy Measures to improve: Reduce energy consumption of the vehicle– friction & losses Improved transmissions Downsizing ICE Test cycle for fuel consumption measurements in China and Europe 3. Energy recovery Measures to improve: • Stop-Start – Smart generator strategy • Hybrids 4. Shift away from oil based fuels Measures to improve: • Plug in Hybrids • Pure Electric vehicles • Fuel cell vehicles 1. Waste of Energy Measures to improve: • Stop-Start – ICE off during vehicle stop • Hybrids

  4. 25% P/T eff. 70g /km legal req. 95g /km legal req. Conventional technology capable… 35% P/T eff. = top performers! Volvo V40 50% P/T eff. =Very unlikely! New Technololgy needed … New technology… Do we need it? 125 100 75 g/km CO2 NED-C 50 25 0 1000 1500 2000 kg Nb! Peak efficiency of an ICE~45%, transmission ~95%  42%...

  5. Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology! Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future Conclusion: Technology for reaching low CO2 must be adopted to a global market. We need to include a shift away from oil based fuels

  6. Could the battery vehicle be mainstream? • Running costs are lower for electric vehicle! • Assumption: • 200 Wh/km for electric vehicle and 5l gasoline per 100km • Example: 15000 km / year • 1:50 SEK / kWh & 15 SEK/l gasoline  • 6750 SEK lower cost for electric vehicle per year • How many years to pay of the battery investment? … 

  7. Could the battery vehicle be mainstream? Investment* for 25kWh: DoE target ~25kSEK 2020+ est. ~50kSEK 2015 cost ~75kSEK Difference in running costs El. Vs Gasoline 15000 km/yr 20000 km/yr *Investment with 3% cost of capital

  8. The battery vehicle as mainstream • If a 2020 DoE target price for batteries will happen it is likely • The customer will decide • However: • Recharging still limits usable range • Volume & weight will limit installed capacity • BEV will be an excellent commuter vehicle

  9. PHEV or Battery vehicle?... Or both? Electric vehicle Battery cost Plug-in Hybrid Cost Conventionell ICE Vehicle Larger tank… Driving distance ?

  10. Sizing the battery for every day driving 50km e-drive covers the daily driving for more than 50% of the population… By providing a charge station during the day, a higher percentage of the population would be covered. Published May 2013 by US NRC

  11. Higherpricedvehicleshave a lower market share Low on-cost solutions will be needed Conventional vehicle HEV vehicle PHEV vehicle Sale volume BEV vehicle Vehicle Price Even Though a PHEV vehicle is a more cost effective way of reducing CO2, Mild hybrids might be needed as it is a lower cost technology

  12. What is needed to get a largeimpact? • Reduce on-cost of electrification • Standards • Infrastructure for charging • Sustainable production of electricity

  13. Reduce on-cost of electrification Technology breakthrough in battery or continuous energy transfer • Target ~1000sek/kWh for 2020 for 10kWh battery pack Integrated solutions to reduced complexity of systems • Combine all power electronics • Combine electric motor & power electronics • Integrated electric motors in transmissions Lower cost system components • Electric distribution system, cables connectors etc.. • Radiators and heat exchangers should be standard • Low cost internal combustion engines Issuer: [Name] [CDS-ID]; [Organisation]; [Name of document]; Security Class: [Proprietary]

  14. Electric vehicle Plug-in Hybrid Cost Conventionell ICE Vehicle Driving distance ? Cost for Future power train? Electric vehicle Battery cost Plug-in Hybrid Cost Conventionell ICE Vehicle Driving distance ? 99010 B. Grandin, VCC EPS Strategy

  15. Conclusions • Costs of electrification will come down • When electrification on-cost is in a range were first owners will have a return of investment, electrification will be mainstream! • PHEV and BEV will have different users • BEV: Short distance commuting • PHEV: Short distance commuting + occasional long distance • We will see both PHEV and BEV in the future

  16. CEVT organisation

  17. Current market situation • Market is increasing! • China is still not moving… • (However strongly motivated) • Japan mature • US rising • EU still lagging..

More Related