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Qualitative Forecasting

Qualitative Forecasting. Fire duration/size/impacts? multiple fire starts close together* acres burned per day above some threshold* valley topography with inversion potential type I team mobilization*: fire fighters that deal with more complex fires proximity to population centers.

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Qualitative Forecasting

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  1. Qualitative Forecasting • Fire duration/size/impacts? • multiple fire starts close together* • acres burned per day above some threshold* • valley topography with inversion potential • type I team mobilization*: fire fighters that deal with more complex fires • proximity to population centers *available from National Interagency Fire Center

  2. Quanitative Forecasting • Near-term forecasts (several hour): e.g. will currently measured smoke at high elevation drain into lower areas? • Longer term forecasts (days to weeks): e.g. extending prescribed burning models to wildfires

  3. Monitoring • PM2.5 is the target parameter • Continuous Monitors • TEOMS: not easily moved; pricey; measures mass conc.; issues associated with heated • Nephelometers: portable, inexpensive, simple to operatre, measures light scattering; issues with RH; needs site-specific calibration

  4. Monitoring • Monitoring Plans • State and Local Air Agency Responsibility with support from others • Recommend using as a template: “Wildfire Emergency Action Plan Guidance Document” (prepared for WESTAR, available on our web site)

  5. Monitoring • Data Interpretation for Health Advisories • State/Local AQ agencies; County/State Health Departments, Federal EPA will interpret data for public

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