Where are we? Where have we been? Where do we go from here?

1. Where are we? Where have we been? Where do we go from here?

2. Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for managing impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ecosystems (aka the Saginaw Bay Multiple Stressors Project) 5 year, $3.76 million grant NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Michigan State University University of Michigan University of Akron Limno-Tech, Inc. Western Michigan University Michigan Department of Natural Resources Michigan Department of Environmental Quality Also featuring Wayne State Purdue Case Western Duke Eastern MI Michigan Department of Natural Resources and the Environment

3. And now, a word from your sponsor Beth Turner – your friendly neighborhood program manager Taking over from Larry Pugh, enjoying a well-earned retirement Also managing Ecological Forecasting program in Lake Erie

5. CSCOR Reporting Requirements • Greater emphasis on reporting both researchoutputsand management outcomes • CSCOR compiles annual report that draws on all projects and their outputs and outcomes • Forms at http://www.cop.noaa.gov/opportunities/grants/reporting_requirements.html • Explanation at http://www.cop.noaa.gov/opportunities/grants/outcomes.html

6. Research Outputs • Outputs are “typical” results of research • New fundamental or applied knowledge • Scientific publications • Patents • New methods and technology • New or advanced tools such as models, biomarkers, etc. • Workshops • Presentations • Outreach products (e.g. website or newsletter articles)

7. Research Outcomes • Outcomes are utilization or adoption of outputs • Management application or adoption of: • New fundamental or applied knowledge • New or improved skills • Information from publications, workshops, seminars, outreach products • New or improved methods or technology • New or advanced tools • Societal condition improved due to management action resulting from output: • Improved water quality • Lower frequency of harmful algal blooms • Reduced hypoxic zone area • Improved sustainability of fisheries

8. Help Me Help You(please!) • Talk to me – I’m very nosy! • Upcoming meetings, workshops, presentations • Publications (pub numbers?) • Interactions with managers or stakeholders • Visit DC • NOAA seminar series • Elizabeth.turner@noaa.gov • 603-862-4680 THANK YOU!

9. 5 Year Project First funding ~ July 2007 First PI meeting December 2007 Organization, Modeling, Light field year – 2008 First “real” field year – 2009 Second field year – 2010 Last funding ~ spring 2011 $$$ This is where we are, approximately…

10. Fishery Notes from First PI Meeting …we also recognized that while our project involves a number of researchers and spans five years, there is still some limit to aspects which we can explore. Thus, our work will continue to focus on (but not be limited to) the two species constituting the historically most important fisheries in Saginaw Bay, walleye and yellow perch. • …it is not only important for management agencies to establish predictive links between particular actions and fish production. Rather, it is also beneficial for management agencies to be equipped with a qualitative understanding of processes affecting fish productions. As such, we plan to structure our field and modeling efforts to facilitate both prediction and understanding.

11. Water Quality Notes from First PI Meeting We want to look at stressors for which we have predictive capabilities and management options, P load is the most obvious stressor to fit this description. The hypothesis is that total chlorophyll a is the same for Sag Bay, but there has been a shift from pelagic to benthic due to dreissenids (making more P available, diverting it to nearshore). … we are concerned about HABs both because they produce toxins (human health issue) and are unpalatable to grazers. … phytoplankton composition is also important because certain phytoplankton groups will be better food for zooplankton and thus have an impact on fish production. • We may be able to predict muck on shoreline well if we have data on light …, temperature …, wind and currents …, and water level • We are still struggling with how to quantify benthic algae as well as muck – no one in our group has done it. Divers, towed benthic camera, a “flying fish” …, flyovers if water clarity is sufficient.

12. Where Have We Been? • Dreissenid dominated system • P shunted, routed to benthic algae • Cladophora? Spirogyra? • Phytoplankton shift to cyanobacteria • Alewife↓ Walleye, Yellow Perch↑, Growth↓ • GLWQA P targets met? Relevant?

15. Mussels ↓ Data courtesy of Tom Nalepa

16. Saginaw River Annual TP Loads Partial-pooling across years using a Bayesian hierarchical model Prepared by Yoonkyung Cha – Duke University

17. P ( annual load > 440 metric tons / yr )

18. Inner Saginaw Bay Annual TP Budget (tonnes/yr) pre-control (1968-1978, orange), post- control (1979-1990, blue), post-invasion (1991-2008, green)

19. Saginaw Bay 'dead zone' may explain muck problems Thursday, July 23, 2009, 8:20 AM Bay City Times Dead Zone? But there's a spot that's just a few feet deeper, which fishermen know well. They call it the Black Hole. Is it the dead zone, or is the oxygen-deprived water somewhere else, caused by an eddy in the bay's currents? Mlive.com

20. Site of interest: Saginaw Bay Outer Inner • Eutrophic • Shallow: mean depth 5m • Horizontally well-mixed by strong winds (Skubinna et al., 1995) • Vertically Isothermal (Vanderploeg et al., 2008) Nathan Hawley 2009

21. Saginaw Bay Recon Buoy Bottom Conditions 11.6 m depth

22. Goals (where do we go from here?) • Comprehensive update from project participants • Data inventory and comprehensive data base • Priorities for work next year • Stakeholder workshop • Engage with managers and develop list of modeling scenarios that will support management decisions. • Discuss the AIF that was a goal of this project in terms of successes, failures, lessons learned • Communication into the future

23. AIF – Good Communication

24. Leftover logistics Dinner Heidi – visit Other things to cover?