Systems Thinking Part 2

1. Systems Thinking Part 2 Louis Rowitz, PhD Director Mid-America Regional Public Health Leadership Institute

2. Systems thinking creates a new language for communicating about complexities and interdependencies.

3. Assessment X Assurance Policy Development Z Y Systems thinking language is circular rather then linear, focusing on closed interdependencies. =

4. Systems thinkers use visual language in diagram from which is a powerful means of communication because it distills the essence of a problem into a format that can be easily remembered.

5. Within the framework of systems thinking, “us” and “them” are part of the same system and thus responsible for both the problems and their solutions.

6. Levels of Understanding Shared Vision Generative Future What are the stated or unstated visions that generate the structures? Creative What are the mental or organizational structures that create the patterns? Systemic Structure Adaptive What kinds of trends or patterns of events seem to be recurring? Patterns of Events Reactive Present Events What is the fastest way to react to this event NOW?

7. Four Systems Thinking Tools • Brainstorming Tools • Dynamic Thinking Tools • Structural Thinking Tools • Computer-Based Tools

8. Reinforcing and balancing loops are the building blocks of complex social systems. • Reinforcing loop produces growth and decay – compound change in one direction with even more change • Balancing loop generate the realities associated with change- factors that resist further increases in a given direction

9. Brainstorming Tools

10. The Double Q DiagramQualitative and Quantitative Hard Factors (Quantitative) The Issue Soft Factors (Qualitative) Visual Map of the Key Factor Related to an Issue

11. Dynamic Thinking ToolsDynamic relationships between variables • Behavior Over Time • Causal Loops • Systems Archetypes

12. A Performance Level B Time Behavior Over Time

13. Behavior Over Time Supportive Behavior Performance Level Unsupportive Behavior Time Example

14. B B R C A Causal Loop R= Reinforcing B= Balancing

15. Guidelines to Causal Loops • Select a clear theme • Determination of time dimension • Behavior over time charts • Set boundaries around the theme • Level of aggregation-patterns of events • Significant delay factors

16. Causal Loop R= Reinforcing B= Balancing Stress Alcohol Use B1 R2 Productivity Health

17. System ArchetypeAid in the Recognition of common system behavior • Drifting Goals • Escalation • Fixes that Fail • Growth and Underinvestment • Limits to Success • Shifting the Burden • Success to be Successful • Tragedy of the Commons

18. Drifting Goals Goal o Pressure to Lower Goal B2 s s Gap o s Actual B1 Corrective Action Delay s

19. A’s Result B’s Result s s s o Quality of A’s Position Relative to B’s Activity by A Activity by B B1 B2 s Threat to B Threat to A s s o Escalation

20. Fixes that Fail s Fix Problem Symptom B1 o s R2 Delay Unintended Consequence s

21. Growth and Underinvestment s s Growth Effort R1 Demand B2 Performance Standard s o Performance s s o Capacity B3 Perceived Need to Invest s Delay Investment in Capacity Delay s

22. Limits to Success Constraint s o s R1 B2 Efforts Performance Limiting Action s s

23. Shifting the Burden/Addiction Symptomatic Solution s B1 R3 s Problem Symptom Side-Effect o o s B2 Delay Fundamental Solution s o

24. Success of A Success of B s s s o s Allocation to A Instead of B R1 R2 Resources to A Resources to B s o Success to the Successful

25. Tragedy of Commons s Net Gains for A Resource Limit s R1 B5 A’s Activity s o s R3 Total Activity Gain per Individual Activity Delay s o R4 B’s Activity o s s B6 R2 Net Gains for B s s