The Future of Air Transportation: Congestion, Challenges & Needs

1. The Future of Air Transportation: Congestion, Challenges & Needs 1st International Conference on Research in Air Transportation [ICRAT 2004] Zilina, Slovakia George L. Donohue, Ph.D. Professor, Systems Engineering and Operations Research Director, Center for Air Transportation Systems Research November 22-24, 2004

2. Challenges for the Future • Major Airports in the USA are Scheduling (and Operating) Beyond An Acceptable Level of Congestion for a Predictable Transportation Network • New Runways (if Possible) can Help Increase Capacity but there are Usually Diminishing Returns beyond 3-4 Parallel RWs • New WV Separation Standards (and a Wake Hazard Warning System) Must be Developed to Provide VMC Capacity Safely under IMC conditions • Congestion Management Policies can solve Over-Scheduling Congestion and Safety Pressure at Capacitated Airports • RW Arrival Time Slot Auctions could help Align Airline, Airport and CAA Business Models toward Financial Stability • New CNS/ATM Technology and Airspace Design can Increase ATC Productivity When & IF Implemented

3. National Air Transportation System Elements Airports (Runways, Taxiways, ILS, Gates, etc.) Airlines (Schedules, A/C Gage, A/C Equipage, etc.) Aircraft (Performance, Avionics) Airspace Design (safety, workload, efficiency) ATM (safety, productivity, accuracy, equity, etc.) ATC (safety, productivity, accuracy, priority, etc.) What are the NAS Network Elements?

4. The Existing ATC Paradigm is Obsolete – We just have not Informed the Public Yet • Sept 14, 2004 17:00 the FAA Center Primary and Secondary Communication System (VSCS and BUEC) failed due to a software and HF maintenance error • 400 High Altitude En-route aircraft at Palmdale Center lost all ATC contact for a Significant time • No aircraft collisions occurred due to TCAS on the aircraft flight-deck • Newly Installed ATC computers are at their Half life in only 3 years!

5. Relationship Between Elements • Network Controls MUST be Designed For • A Network that is Highly Non-Linear (NL) • Network Elements that are Highly Adaptive • Existing ATM/ATC System largely IGNORES these factors • All operational data is reported by Individual Airport, Center, Country, etc. • Propagated Delays are not well Understood • Flight Cancellations are not considered as Serious as Delays • GDP delays are considered as Inevitable and Optimum for Aircraft Fuel Savings without consideration for Loss of Schedule Predictability • NL Network Theory tells us that continuing the existing paradigm will NEVER IMPROVE the System Performance • Deregulated Market Forces WILL NOT Solve this Problem • Overgrazing of the Commons • Prisoners Dilemma • Nash Equilibrium

6. Runways Alone Cannot Fix the Problem: Runway-Taxiway Interactions Ops/RW/Hr 50 30

7. LGA Arrival - Departure IMC 37,37 Slottery FAA Capacity Benchmark Report 2001

8. O’Hare: A Hub Maximum Capacity Airport Departure/Arrival Pareto Trade-off: Runway layout:

9. ORD in Dec 2003 From Benchmark Report From ASPM 130 more flights 42% delayed (from 18% in 2002) 13 mishaps (from 3 in 2002)

10. Scheduled Arrival Rate for Different Airlines at ORD in Nov. and Dec. in 2003 Scheduled Arrival Rate (15 min time block) Time (15 min time block) # of scheduled arrivals • The data is from BTS which only includes domestic flight data for 15 certificated airlines • The red line = 21 arr. /15 min, which is the upper-bound of real AR at ORD in Nov. and Dec. 2003 • The blue line = 25 arr./15 min, which is the optimal AR from FAA Benchmark Report for all arrivals at ORD

11. Data Indicates Loss of Separation Increases at High Capacity Fraction • Over-scheduling causes accident pre-cursor events and potentially compromises safety Statistics at ATL, BWI, DCA and LGA airports (Haynie)

12. O’Hare Airport Yearly Throughput 72,610,121 928,691 72,501,988 72,145,489 922,817 911,917 69,508,672 908,989 67,448,064 896,104 896,228 66,565,952 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Flight Operations Passengers Some Airline Micro Economic Models Trend toward use of Smaller Aircraft • Frequency competition reduces seat capacity and increases operating cost

13. Congestion Management Approaches • Administrative • Negotiation-based IATA biannual conferences • Anti-Trust Concerns (Current European Method) • Return to USA CAB Route Approvable Board (i.e. Re-Regulate) • Economic • Weight-based landing fee: No Incentive for Larger aircraft – Inefficient Enplanement Capacity • Time-based congestion pricing: • Hard to Determine the Correct Price • May have a Very Long or Unstable Convergence Time • Airline future Schedule and Marketing Uncertainties • DoT/FAA and EC supervised Market-based Auctionsof Arrival Metering-Fix Time Slots • Hybrid

14. Summary of CM Game Moves

15. Market Based Congestion Pricing Option Won • Congestion Pricing produced 10,000 more passenger seats / day at the same level of congestion as the FAA slot control Rules • Airline Operation fees were increased by $500,000 / day • but a potential for $1,500,000 of increased Revenue was Produced (over what the A/L could achieve under government Access Rules

16. Challenges for New Research Leadership • Understand that the AT Network is a Highly Non-Linear Complex Adaptive System • Exhibits Chaotic Behavior • Consider BOTH the Government and Private Service Provider’s Perspectives in your Research • Consider the Sociology of the Current ATC System’s Resistance to Change • Can Prevent Introduction of Productivity Enhancing Technology and Procedures

17. BACKUP

18. ORD Scheduled Operations (BTS Dec 2003) 1 500 seats/aircraft cumulative seat share 450 0.9 400 0.8 350 0.7 300 0.6 0.5 250 200 0.4 150 0.3 0.2 100 50 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 cumulative flight share Enplanement Capacity is More Important than Operational Capacity • Small aircraft make inefficient use of runway capacity

19. LGA Carrier Mix – 8/2000

20. LGA Equipment Size Dist 8/2000

21. LGA Equipment Dist 8/2000

22. Congestion is coming back Operations are Back but ORD Delays are Worse Air travel is gradually picking up

23. LGA Airport Slot Control AIR-21 “Slottery” 130 more flights 42% delayed (from 18% in 2002) 13 mishaps (from 3 in 2002) Nov 2000 Apr 2000 Jan 2001 Sep 2001 Oct 2001 Over-Scheduling Over-Scheduling 2007 Jun 2002 Jan 2004 June 2004 • Exempted from HDR certain flights to address competition and small market access End of HDR Nov 2003 • Major chokepoint • 300 new daily flights • 25% total network delay FAA-regulated 2.5% reduction by AA and UA HDR removed FAA-ordered 5% reduction by AA and UA DOT’s congestion management

24. Design Approach • Objective: • Obtain Better Utilization of Nation’s Airport Network Infrastructure – Network Load Balancing • Provide an Optimum Fleet Mix at Safe Arrival Capacity • Ensure Fair Market Access Opportunity • Increase Schedule Predictability - reduced queuing delays • Assumptions • Airlines will make optimum use of slots they license • Auction rules:Bidders are ranked using a linear combination of: • monetary offer (combination of A/C equipage credit and cash) • flight OD pair (e.g. international agreements, etc.) • throughput (aircraft size) ? • airline’s prior investment ? • on-time performance ?

25. Simulation Assumptions • General Assumptions: • Aircraft can arrive within allocated slots with Required Time-of-Arrival errors of 20 seconds (using Aircraft RTA Capabilities) • Auction items: Metering Fix Arrival Slots in 76 15-min bins (5:00am till 24:00am) up to 21 arrivals/bin • Input: • Dec 2003 BTS schedule of 2186 flights domestic flights to ORD (80% of total traffic)

26. Current output in good weather condition ORD Domestic Arrivals at ORD (Dec 2003) Mean of Estimated Average Arrival Delay (good weather)