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Recipes for Irrational Decisions

Recipes for Irrational Decisions. Cirrus Design Conference Dr. Warren Jensen UND Aerospace. Decision Bias. Bias is our preference, based on our prior experience. It leads to subconscious assumptions, which can impact the decision process.

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Recipes for Irrational Decisions

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  1. Recipes for Irrational Decisions Cirrus Design Conference Dr. Warren Jensen UND Aerospace

  2. Decision Bias • Bias is our preference, based on our prior experience. • It leads to subconscious assumptions, which can impact the decision process. • As a result, we make decisions that seem reasonable, but are later viewed as Irrational Decisions

  3. Early information is considered more important or accurate. Early impressions have preference …

  4. Humans seek more information than they can absorb in a given time.Humans tend not to extract enough information from sources.

  5. We consider all information to be equally reliable, when it is not. Evaluate your sources for reliability...

  6. We usually consider only three or four options at a time, rather than a larger number.

  7. We only consider only a few critical aspects of the problem.

  8. More information breeds confidence in our decisions, not more accurate decisions. (Spin)

  9. We tend to seek information that confirms our choice and avoid information that counters it. We prefer to be right, like to prove it.

  10. We appear to have less confidence in evaluating and choosing alternatives. Poor options are given the ‘benefit of the doubt’.

  11. What are the implications? • We need to understand and recognize decision bias as it occurs. • ‘What are we talking ourselves into here?’ • How can we overcome bias? • Effective critique • Replay • Reconstruct • Reflect • Redirect

  12. Summary • Human bias in information gathering and decision-making is well known and common. • Awareness of these biases will aid in avoiding poor decisions. • Humans will develop strategies to most comfortably address problems, and these strategies may be inadequate.

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