The NSF Science and Technology Centers Program in Perspective

1. The NSF Science and TechnologyCenters Program in Perspective Kelvin K. DroegemeierProfessor, School of Meteorology and Director, Center for Analysis and Prediction of StormsUniversity of Oklahoma

2. Looking Back to 1987 • The web didn’t exist • NSFnet was in its infancy (56K connections) • The “fast” computer was the Cray X-MP • Universities and K-12 education. Are you serious? • “Interdisciplinary” was an emerging paradigm • Global competition in science/technology was rising • Perceived weakening in and exodus from US national laboratories • Lack of a clear path in the US from basic research to practical economic and societal benefits

3. The STC Concept • Create well-funded, long-term centers exclusively at universities (though involving other entities) • Attack fundamental science problems that are beyond a single investigator and require multidisciplinary approaches • Weave education and knowledge transfer throughout the center’s activities • Encourage linkages with industry to effectuate practical utilization as well as research • Sunset law -- seed fund (plant) and let others water!

4. Your Starting Point • The STC Program helped bring about or solidify many things we know as common today • Interdisciplinary research is well established • University participation in K-12 education is well established • Commercialization of intellectual property is growing and IP issues are being dealt with • University partnerships with the private sector are common • Virtual collaboration is available (important for centers involving multiple institutions) • Accountability is now a major issue • Tangible benefits to society have been demonstrated • Science impacts are being communicated to Congress (e.g., Ehlers report), but more work is needed

5. The CAPS Problem: Numerical Prediction of High-Impact Local Weather

6. What Do Operational Weather Models Predict?

7. What Do Forecasters Deal With? • Individual thunderstorms and squall lines • Lake effect snow storms • Down-slope wind storms • Convective initiation • Seabreeze convection • Stratocumulus decks off the coast • Cold air damming • Post-frontal rainbands

8. Can We Predict Local High-Impact Weather Explicitly Using Numerical Models??? • Theoretical viability • Computing and data needed • Practical implementation • Economic and societal value • Commercial potential

9. The Consequences and Need • Local high-impact weather causes economic losses in the US that average $300 M per week • Over 10% of the $7 trillion US economy is impacted each year • Commercial aviation losses are $1-2 B per year (one diverted flight costs $150K) • Agriculture losses exceed $10 B/year • Other industries (power utilities, surface transport) • About 50% of the loss is preventable! Pielke Jr. (1997)

10. More than the National Weather Service • General and commercial aviation • Power and communication utilities • Surface transportation • Agriculture • Defense and space flight • Construction • Insurance • Weather derivatives and commodities • Recreation • Toxic release • Hydrology

11. NEXRAD Doppler Radar Data

12. CAPS Numerical Forecasts of the May 3 Tornadic Storms 7:00 pm - 2 hour Forecast NEXRAD Radar Observations ARPS Prediction Model (2 hour forecast)

13. Moore, OK Tornadic Storm Moore, OK Tornadic Storm NEXRAD Radar Observations 2-Hour CAPS Computer Forecast Down to the Scale of Counties 12-hour NWS Forecast (unable to represent individual thunderstorms) Comparison With Current Operational Model

14. The Early Years • Early organization is absolutely critical • Take proposal and reviews and come up with a work plan • Everyone needs to see where they fit, especially students • Regular meetings of center leadership are important • Need to balance the “freedom” of a university setting with the organization of a private company • A good associate director and other administrative staff! • Specific goals for individual thrust areas -- good to have a common target that everyone is working toward • PERT and GANTT charts if you can stomach them!!

16. The Early Years • Early organization is absolutely critical • Take proposal and reviews and come up with a work plan • Everyone needs to see where they fit, especially students • Regular meetings of center leadership are important early in the process (and ongoing) • Need to balance the “freedom” of a university setting with the organization of a private company • Clear lines of authority and responsibility • A good associate director and other administrative staff! • Specific goals for individual thrust areas -- good to have a common target that everyone is working toward • PERT and GANTT charts if you can stomach them!! • Establish a strong External Advisory Panel • Maintain strong ties with your program director and quickly deal with problems as they arise

17. The Early Years • Some good early decisions • Worked with the “end users” as soon as possible • Developed a vision for the practical benefits and kept them in mind • Developed something that would live beyond the center and the people who developed it • Not only “did science” but looked toward commercialization from day one • Excellent linkages with university administration • Early struggles • Education and outreach • Dealing with reporting procedures (data base) - NSF was learning right along with us • Lots of reviews (13 formal reviews in 9 years)

18. The Mature Phase • Try to stay focused and avoid the temptation of broadening your goals too quickly • Staff turnover unavoidable -- try to cross-train • STC director meetings will be valuable • Make visits to the Hill • Professional development: scientists need to learn how to write proposals, etc • Be creative • undergraduate fellows programs • REU and related opportunities • visiting scientist programs • international linkages

19. The Ramp Down and Transition • Plan to lose your funding - that’s the way it should be! • Start cultivating linkages with the private sector and other communities • Think carefully whether certain efforts should continue • Difficult to sustain a single scientific problem beyond a decade • Does it make sense to continue? • CAPS created a transition team • Responded to opportunities • Created our own opportunities (this is critical since your work will be very novel) -- do it all along the way • Plan for efforts to slow a bit if transition funding is uncertain -- write papers! • Private company/commercialization

20. CAPS in Perspective Basic R&D Operational Applications & Testing Commercialization 1989-1992 +++ 0 0 1993-1996 +++ + 0 1997-1998 ++ ++ + 1999-2000 + ++ ++ 2001-2003 ++ + +++ 2003-2005 +++ + ++++ WDT

21. Some Suggestions • Track your intellectual property from day one and work closely with your Research or IP Office • Track the careers of your students and post-docs • Assign a competent staff member to the data base • Have weekly informal scientific discussions for all center personnel, including students • Rehearse site visits and EAP meetings • Think out of the box -- you’re the NSF’s premiere activity!

22. Because CAPS was an STC...

23. CAPS Numerical Forecasts of the May 3 Tornadic Storms 7:00 pm - 2 hour Forecast NEXRAD Radar Observations ARPS Prediction Model (2 hour forecast)

25. Project Hub-CAPS • $1 million, 3-year R&D project with American Airlines • Built and now operate for AA acustomized numerical predictionsystem • Led to an endowed professorship • Helped initiate a private company • Possibly an AA-Weather Channel equitypartnership

26. Abilene + NEXRAD

27. Operational Version of ARPS in Korea (1999) 15-h Accumulated Precipitation Valid 03Z on 1 August 1999 (400 Station AWS Mesonet) ARPS 12-h 9 km Forecast Valid 03Z on 1 August 1999

28. Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. WDT

29. When the Book is Written on CAPS... • We would like to be remembered for the fact that we • Did our best and did not squander the S&T Center opportunity • Learned from our mistakes and listened to advice (and sometimes even followed it!) • Produced new scientific knowledge of the highest quality and moved the field forward more quickly than otherwise would have been the case • Led major national initiatives that otherwise would not have happened • Were good stewards of the funding entrusted to us and held ourselves to the highest standards of professional ethics • Had the interests of the community in mind for every decision made • Recognized that our work was made possible by the efforts of those who preceded us

30. Finally… • The STC program is one of NSF’s crowning achievements • The STC experience will no doubt be the highlight of your career • Have a great time. Congratulations!!

31. CAPS Contact Information • Visit CAPS on the web at http://caps.ou.edu • Real time forecasts are at http://caps.ou.edu/wx • For more information, contact Prof. Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Director Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms University of Oklahoma Sarkeys Energy Center, Suite 1110 100 East Boyd Street Norman, OK 73019 Email: kkd@ou.edu Phone: 405-325-0453 Fax: 405-325-7614