By Francois Vreÿ Faculty of Military Science Stellenbosch University

1. On Strategic Culture:Some Perspectives on Theory and PracticeSecond Conference on Strategic TheoryOn Strategy: Military Culture and African Armed ForcesWallenberg Conference CentreStellenbosch, 22-23 September 2011 By Francois Vreÿ Faculty of Military Science Stellenbosch University

2. Overview Definitions Wave theory development Critique of strategic culture On Nordic strategic culture Shifting of South African strategic culture Conclusion Scope of presentation 2

3. Overview • The US-Russian connection: Nuclear decision-making • The RAND Corporation: Spotting the difference • A first definition: Snyder (1977) • A later definition: Johnston (1995) • A focussed definition: Klein (1991) • An unfolding debate

4. Klein A military imperative Habits of thought and action and/or the set of attitudes and beliefs held within a military establishment concerning the political objective of war and most effective strategy and operational method of achieving it. Shifting definitions • Snyder • Nuclear doctrine • ... the sum total of ideas conditioned emotional responses and patterns of habitual behaviour that members of a national strategic community have acquired through instruction or imitation and share with each other with regard to nuclear strategy.

5. A working definition • Strategic culture presumes: • ... that individual interests are constructed in the context of temporarily and logically consistent patterns of perceptions about a country’s role in international politics and in the use of military force towards achieving political ends. • Patterns are rooted in historically unique ‘early’ or ‘formative’ experiences of a state (or its predecessor polity or polities). • Influenced by philosophical, political, cultural and cognitive factors as the state and its elites develop through time. 5

6. Three waves of theory • First wave: Strong nuclear focus and rationalist approach – strong emphasis upon how the other side sees matters by linking culture and behaviour to strategic culture that changes slowly over time. (1970s & 1980s) • Second wave: Gramscian views - the declaratory operational void – how elites (political and economic) declare intentions and execution in an attempt to maintain hegemony in a system to use coercion in pursuit of hegemony. (1990s) • Third wave: Entered more variables and sub-cultures that play a role in explaining strategic decisions about whether and how to use coercion. (late 1990’s)

7. Critical stances on strategic culture • Cannot explain all matters strategic. Strategic culture as an opportunistic matter for political and military elites. • Not monolithic & can change. More than one strategic culture is possible. • Major events can effect rapid shifts in strategic culture. Defeat and great shifts in the international system that upset the status quo. • Several influences at play and sub-cultures are important. Borrowing elements that work and particularly during times of crisis. • Stasis not the reigning feature of strategic culture. 7

8. Some formative matters • The role of discourse and practice • Norm transplants: Embracing opportunities • Generational changes: Divergent views • Coexisting strategic cultures: Shared or opposing? • Civil-military relations: Experiences with the military • Military sub-cultures: Unavoidable but influential

9. Nordic strategic culture Drivers Outcomes Denmark: Cosmopolitism, defencism to “activism” Finland: Neutrality & homeland defence to “PfP” Norway: Homeland defence to “international operations” Sweden: Technology and people’s army trade-offs • Geography • Location to Russia / USSR • Invasions • World War 2 • Cold War collapse • Political shifts

10. Shifting South African strategic culture • Pre-1994 • Aggressive first strike • Offensive • Competitive realist • Politico-military lead • National security • Post 1994 • Democratic imperative • Defensive • Cooperative • Regional imperative • International Humanitarian Law

11. 1 • 3 • 2 • 1994 2011 Migrating South African strategic culture … • Embracing the • broader view • External and domestic shocks • New incumbents • Challenge to the status quo • Norm entrepreneurs • Foreign policy shifts • New defence policy • Rejecting apartheid • Introducing democracy • Centrality of human security • Foreign policy for co-operation • The African agenda • Co-operative military futures • Constructive military alternatives

12. Post 2010 – some loose ends ? … • Conceptual: Clarity of defence in a democracy • Sub-cultures: Different military cultures in the SANDF • Preferences: Systems acquired through the arms deal • Gate-keepers: Partially closed & in-house defence update • Ideas: Raising the military profile in South African society • Perceptions: Parliamentary stand-off on defence readiness • Political Elites: Raising defence expenditure

13. Concluding remarks • A migration from nuclear deterrence to regular (conventional) and irregular armed conflicts • Theoretical developments migrated to remain in step through wave theory with a shifting strategic landscape • Strategic culture remains one field to better understand the changing landscape on the utility of armed coercion • South Africa demonstrates the utility of second and third wave theory to explain a particular case, albeit partial • Strategic culture remains one lens to view how elites shift their preferences about the importance and utility of armed coercion

14. Bibliography • Department of Defence, Defence White Paper on National Defence: Defence in a Democracy, (May 1996). • Gray, C. Out of the wilderness: Prime time for strategic culture, Comparative Strategy, 26/1, 2007. • Johnston, A.I. Thinking about strategic culture, International Security, 19/4, 1995. • Kier, E. Culture and military doctrine: France between the wars, International Security, 19/4, 1995. • Lantis, J.S. Strategic culture and national security policy, International Studies Review, 4/3, 2003. • Neumann, I.B. and H. Heikka, Grand strategy, strategic culture, practice, Cooperation and Conflict, 40/5, 2005. • South African Government Information, Speech by L.N. Sisulu, Minister of Defence and Military Veterans, on the occasion of the Department of Defence Budget Vote, Good Hope Chamber, Cape Town, 13 April 2011. • Snyder, J.L. The Soviet Strategic Culture: Implications for Limited nuclear Operations, RAND Corporation, A Project Air Force Report, (September 1977). • Howlett, D. and J. Glenn, Epilogue: Nordic strategic culture, Cooperation and Conflict, 40/121, 2005. • Williams, R. Integration or absorption: The creation of the South African National Defence Force, 1993-1999, African Security Review, 11/2, 2002.