O PROJETO PIRATA & sua importância para a previsão climática regional.

1. O PROJETO PIRATA& sua importância para a previsão climática regional. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE IIIX Reunião de Análise Climática do Nordeste/2003 Recife, 4-5 de setembro de 2003 Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE X-ISABP Arraial do Cabo, RJ 23 August 2004

2. The PIRATA Rational • To provide a better description of the two main modes of Tropical Atlantic SST variability, namely the: • Equatorial mode: [interannual] • Meridional mode: [decadal]

3. Brazil INPE/DHN France IRD USA NOAA PIRATA BRAZIL 1st Buoy Moored Natal Fortaleza MOU PPA SWE 1996 1997 2001 2003 2004 2005 1995 The PIRATA PROJECT

4. THE PIRATA BACKBONE

5. Satellite & Coupled O-A Modeling Marine Operations CPTEC/ INPE DHN/CHN Applications FUNCEME IO/USP Education and Training PIRATA BRAZIL

6. Marine Operations

7. PIRATA SATELLITE DATA RELAY

8. PIRATA buoy data available on near-real time on the Internet: TEMPERATURE SOLAR RADIATION 12N 38W 0N 23W AUG 23, 2004

9. ISSCP ISSCP ISSCP ISSCP REANALISES REANALISES REANALISES REANALISES Diagramas de dispersão da série temporal diária de radiação solar à superfície da bóia PIRATA 8ºN 38ºW. Diagramas de dispersão da série temporal diária de radiação solar à superfície da bóia PIRATA 8ºN 38ºW. Diagramas de dispersão da série temporal diária de radiação solar à superfície da bóia PIRATA 8ºN 38ºW. PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA GL 1.2 GL 1.2 GL 1.2 GL 1.2 ERA40 ERA40 ERA40 ERA40 PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA PIRATA Solar Radiation Estimates 0.5 degree resolution 0.04 degree resolution GOES GOES PIRATA 8N-38W PIRATA 8N-38W PIRATA PIRATA

10. Buoy Data Received at CPTEC from GTS within a 24h period.

11. PIRATA BACKBONE & SW EXTENSION Background Map: Long term mean No. SST observations/month (COADS)

12. PIRATA SWE PIRATA ARRAY

13. Objectives • Improving knowledge of ocean-atmospheric interactions over the tropical South Atlantic toward generating skillful SST predictions • Modeling effort to improve coupled o-a models and forecasting tools • Enhancing oceanographic and meteorological observational infrastructure over the tropical South Atlantic

14. Mechanisms to be studied • SITCZ-Cold Tong Complex (Grodsky and Carton, 2002) • Western Atlantic Warm Pool (Huang and Carton, 1995) • Eastern Nordeste seasonal rainfall predictability (Rao and Lima, 1993) • SACZ-SST feedback processes (Chaves and Nobre, 2004; Barreiro and Chang, 2003)

15. An enhanced observational network over the SW Atlantic: Benefits • Both satellite altimetry and tide gauges measurements along the coast and islands are necessary for an effective monitoring of mean sea level. • T-S vertical profiles are needed to estimate the amount of heat stored on the upper ocean.

16. Density Anomaly Advection by the South Equatorial Current

17. SITCZ(Grodsky and Carton, 2002)

18. SACZ SACZ & SSTA : Observations 17-25 NOVEMBER 1999

19. Nobre et al. (2002)

20. Source regions of Subtropical-Tropical Cell waters From: Hazeleger et al. (2003)

21. Anomaly Correlation: NordesteDry Spells Duration & SST

22. Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004

23. Forced Spin up Coupled Forecast AGCM AGCM Atmos FCST daily/hourly SST Tau Heat SST daily OGCM OGCM SFC fluxes IC CPTEC’s Ocean-Atmosphere coupled model suite

24. Coupled GCM for Weather Prediction: The Catarina Phenomenon

25. Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer climate?

26. Ventos & Correntes PIRATA

27. Equatorial Undercurrent Simulation at CPTEC

29. PERSISTENCE MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILL Repelli and Nobre (2004)

30. SIMOC MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILL Repelli and Nobre (2004)

31. SIMOC SSTA FORECAST SKILL DECEMBER NOVEMBER North Atlantic South Atlantic Repelli and Nobre (2004)

33. Nobre et al. (2002)

34. WARM-COLD SST OGCM EXPERIMENTS Chaves (2003)

35. CPTEC’s Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere model suite