Challenges and Needs in Research Views of Japan -emerging challenges and policy needs-

1. Dialogue on Research in SBSTA32 (3 June 2010） Challenges and Needs in Research Views of Japan -emerging challenges and policy needs- Hiroki Kondo Advisor to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan

2. Prioritized Subjectsas research needsinclimate change research area Selected important subjects in climate change research areaunder Environment ―Satelliteobservationof greenhouse gases and land surface layer GOSAT (launched in 2009), etc. (= Global Greenhouse Gas Observation by Satellite) ―Climate change projection for 21st century by climate modeling （Science & technology to project climate change in the 21st century by using the supercomputer as a sound base for Post-Kyoto policy) ―Climate change risk assessment & adaptation, and the scenarios and pathways toward low carbon societies Besides National Core Technology： ―Next generation supercomputer ―Observation and Ocean Exploration System（includingData Integration and Analysis System（DIAS) ）、

3. Research Challenges from the IPCC/WG1/ AR4 • “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, ….” • “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likelydue to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations12.” 12 Consideration of remaining uncertainty is based on current methodologies. • “Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty.” • “Assessed upper ranges for temperature projections are larger than in the TAR (see Table SPM-3) mainly because the broader range of models now available suggests stronger climate-carbon cycle feed backs.” • “It is very likelythat hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.” 　　・・・・・・・・・・・・・ Strong concerns about global warming and its impacts on natural disasters, in particular,from policy makers Increasing challenges for further reliable projection

4. Research challenges related to climate change projection to be addressed • Better simulation of physical and biogeochemical processes sufficiently reflecting feedbacks A)Advancing climate modeling and projection • Addressing uncertainties in climate model projection B) Quantification and reduction of uncertainty • Impact assessment on natural disasters by extreme events through sufficiently high resolution projection C) Application of regional projection to natural disasters

5. Research needs for policy andprojection targets to meet them Needs of better scientific basis for long-term stability issues in mitigation, etc. Long-term global environmental projection using an earth system model Needs of climate information in the near future for adaptation and other policy measures Near-term climate projection (or prediction) using a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM Needs of regionally detail projection of extremes for regionally reliable adaptation in vulnerable countries Projection of extremes in the future using a super-high resolution atmospheric model Related areas to be coordinated: Advanced Re-analysis system for model verification

6. Climate change projection using theEarth Simulator(ES) (MEXT) Close Coordination Long-Term Global Change Projection (~2300) Advancing Climate Modeling and Projection Near-Term Climate Prediction (20~30 years prediction) Impact Assessment Studies (MOE) Extreme Event Projection (Typhoons, Hurricanes, Heavy rain, etc.) Quantification and reduction of uncertainty Cloud Resolvable Modeling Application of Regional Projections to Natural Disasters Parameterization of Marine Microphysics Model output Adaptation Studies Contribution to IPCC AR5 Scientific Basis for Policymakers Ongoing Coordination toaddress challenges and needs in research (Japan)

7. Increasing needs for closer coordination climate change projection outcomes with finer temporal and spatial resolution with Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) studies and then specifically with risk assessment and adaptation and scenarios and pathways toward low carbon societies at local and regional levels

8. New research project on impact and adaptation (FY2010 – 2014) • Quantitative assessment of climate change impacts at the national and local levels • Development of impact assessment and adaptation policy tools for local governments and developing countries • Contributions to IPCC AR5 and other international initiatives Fine resolution climate prediction AP Adaptation Network Theme 2 Study on adaptation policy measures to be mainstreamed into local government development policies Theme 1 Study on finer resolution qualitative assessment of climate change impacts in Japan at the national and local levels Theme 3 Study on indicators for vulnerability assessment and measuring the effect of adaptation in developing countries Forest Health Food Disaster Contribution to policy making processes 8