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Bar-EcoRe WP3: Population distributions

Bar-EcoRe WP3: Population distributions. Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution. Objective of WP3: investigate the effects of future climatic conditions and other environmental or human stressors on the spatial distribution of Barents Sea plankton, benthos and fish populations. 2 components:

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Bar-EcoRe WP3: Population distributions

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  1. Bar-EcoReWP3: Population distributions

  2. Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution • Objective of WP3: • investigate the effects of future climatic conditions and other environmental or human stressors on the spatial distribution of Barents Sea plankton, benthos and fish populations. • 2 components: • historical reconstructions and projections of climate scenarios • statistical spatial distribution models for plankton, benthos and fish populations

  3. projecting spatial distributions niche-based models climate forecast/scenario predicted spatial distribution + biological response environment

  4. A general view of the modelling method adapted from Anderson, 2010

  5. Evaluating uncertainties future world adaptation Scale(s)

  6. uncertainties in conceptual models environmental conditions geographical attachment density dependent habitat selection spatial dependency Persistence spatial distribution species interactions demographic structure

  7. Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution Pops. spatial distribution Pops. History (demography, size, etc.) Environmental conditions (climate, habitat, pollution, etc.) Population distribution models (PDMs) Climate Fishing ensemble modelling Model evaluation & selection Environment Pop state PDMs PDMs Pops. spatial distribution Pops. spatial distribution Pops. spatial distribution PAST POSSIBLE FUTURES

  8. Past and Future climate & other stressors Past ocean climate will come from historical Atlas of hydrographic conditions (FishExchange) for the period 1985+ Future climate will be derived from downscaled ocean climate simulations for the period 2051-2065 Other stressors will not be considered explicitely, but through their expected effects on populations (abundance, demographic structure,...)

  9. Activities Year 1: Data & information assembly (past situations). Development of conceptual models. Experiment with existing tool-kits. Year 2: Numerical formulation and coding for few species. Model evaluations and development of ensemble models. Climate model runs for 2051-2065. Year 3: Extension of model development to ‘all’ species. Input of future climate and biological scenarios. Ensemble forecasts.

  10. Feasibility and limitations Feasibility: Statistical models for spatial distribution do exists (mostly terrestrial) and ready-made tools are currently available (ex: BIOMOD) The statistical modelling activity will be carried out by a dedicated post-doc Limitations: Availability of adequate data (climate & biological) Availability of adequate information (e.g. species interactions) to construct the models Time needed for developing and coding models outside existing tools Computing time for complex ensemble modelling

  11. Connections to other WPs WP1: Community structure WP2: Trophic interaction data and concepts WP4: Resilience & Early warning WP3: Population distribution modelled distributions Past climate & climate models

  12. Thank you

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