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Recent Developments in the Community Emissions Model CONCEPT

Recent Developments in the Community Emissions Model CONCEPT. 5 th Annual CMAS Model User Conference Tuesday October 17, 2006 Mark Janssen LADCO. Background. CONsolidated Community Emissions Processing Tool - CONCEPT. PostgreSQL, Perl, PostGIS. Some fortran for M6, Nonroad, CMAQ

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Recent Developments in the Community Emissions Model CONCEPT

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  1. Recent Developments in the Community Emissions Model CONCEPT 5th Annual CMAS Model User Conference Tuesday October 17, 2006 Mark Janssen LADCO

  2. Background • CONsolidated Community Emissions Processing Tool - CONCEPT. • PostgreSQL, Perl, PostGIS. Some fortran for M6, Nonroad, CMAQ • Build with a community in mind: easy to read/modify and customize QA. • Now operational and will be part of LADCO/MWRPO SIP.

  3. Models in CONCEPTAnd what makes them different • Industrial Point- advanced temporal • Area- advanced temporal • Nonroad- integrated NONROAD, day specific meteorology • Biogenics – BEIS2/BEIS3/MEGAN • NH3- Processed based model (NAS recommendation) • Onroad- Complex temporal, Link Based

  4. If you want a modeling system that needs extensive and flexible QA and is foundation community model

  5. Onroad Motor Vehicle • Link based onroad model with embeded version of mobile6. • T3 – Conversion tool reads many travel demand models makes them usable by CONCEPT • Handle very complex temporal(month, day, hour, ) by road and vehicle type for VMT, Speed, Mix. • Adjust speed based on volume after temporalization • Flexible speed, temperature bins for accelerated M6 Processing • Toxics being added by USEPA

  6. LADCO 2002 Networks Data Processed

  7. Example of Complex Temporal

  8. Example Vehicle Mix Temporal Profile

  9. LADCO NetworksAll of region 5

  10. EGU Temporal based on CEM • Gold Standard in Emissions, Direct measurement • Use the Hourly CEM Data to derive more represenative EGU inventories. • Automated tool other users can use not a one-off analysis. Create complex NIF3.0 • Need profiles because actual hourly not usable in future years.

  11. EGU Temporal based on CEMContinued… • Build hourly weekday, Saturday, Sunday for each month. • Why Not use: Large Data, What is Typical, Matching CEM to the NEI. • CEM Analysis tool will ship with CONCEPT v.66 • Use CONCEPT’s temporal processor that can use the complex temporal NIF allows.

  12. Ratio of July weekday EGU NOx with and without CEM based temporal allocation

  13. July 12, 2002 hourly NOx for Georgia EGUs

  14. July 12, 2002 hourly NOx for Illinois EGUs

  15. Significant weekday/weekend variation is apparent with CEM based temporal allocation

  16. July 3, 2002 episode day Total emissions (TPD) from: EMS/BIOME (BEIS3) and CONCEPT/MEGAN models Less Isoprene using MEGAN model Biogenic Emissions: MEGAN

  17. Isoprene:Difference plot of BIOME(BEIS3) – MEGAN Hourly isoprene emissions (right)

  18. CAMx SOA pre-cursor species: CG3, SQT, and TRP The application of a BEIS post-processor to “estimate” SOA pre-cursor species are shown in the table on the right in bold Much higher PM SOA pre-cursor emissions using MEGAN Common Hybrid Approach

  19. Agricultural Ammonia • Processed based NH3 model based on recommendations from National Academy of Science. • Model runs every farm and requires complex input data like N content of feed, barn color.

  20. What We are Trying to Model?

  21. EPA State Animal Populations EPA County Animal Population Distributions EPA State-Level MMT Distributions Default Data Tables Actual Farm Data Customized MMT Data County-Level Fertilizer Data Combined Real and Synthetic Farms by Grid Cell Fertilizer Data by Grid Cell Animal Allocation Processor (AAP) Farm Emissions Model (FEM) Farm Emissions Model Output

  22. Ammonia Emission Rate from Swine Housing (two days in February)

  23. NH3-Next Steps • Poultry Housing Model science not complete • May years of validation work because there are limited field measurements. • Model too slow to be operational( months to run 7 days nationally. • Speed up the model. C, perl, fortran • PC single facility version so people doing validation studies can test tool.

  24. Performance Problems • We have a model that works, but is slow • Link based networks, biogenics, nh3 model. • Projects underway to improve them. • Example is CAMX/CMAQ writer that used to take 12 hours, now runs in 67 seconds. • Opinion: Better to have a transparent model that is slow than a fast black box. Can fix speed problems where needed. • If speed was a primary concern we would all be running CAMX not CMAQ.

  25. Thanks to Community! • Environ (Pollack, Haasbeek, Shepard, et al) Onroad Networks • Alpine Geophysics(Wilkinson) MEGAN • NCAR(Alex Guenther) MEGAN • LADCO(Baker) - MEGAN • MI-DEQ(Edick) – CEM/EGU • UC-Davis(Zhang, et al) NH3 Model • UC- Riverside(Wang, et al) NH3 Model • Users who make sure the model works

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