Conflict and Cooperation in Northern Europe: Strategies for Small States in the EU

1. Patterns of Conflict and Cooperation in Northern Europe Prof. Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas Vytautas Magnus University (Kaunas)

2. Plan • Small states • What can a small state do in the EU? • The role of regions in the EU • Conflict and Cooperation in Northern Europe

3. What is a small state?

4. Conceptions of Small States • Treaty of Vienna • 19th Century (1815-1915) • Small states are all that are not considered 6 Great Powers (Germany, Great Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, Italy) • 20th Century • Number of states kept rising • Small states were all those states that were not great powers and that were not consistently insisting on being referred to as middle powers (Australia, Canada)

5. Traditionalist view of small states • 1) are not able to preserve their own autonomy in the face of force; • 2) have a narrow range of action; • 3) have little to say about which games are being played and how; • 4) have only a small stake in the system and are unable to act for its sake.

6. What makes a small state? • The problems looming for each nation are determined by objective factors of territory size, geography, climate and habitat; but also by political features of the neighbourhood and larger region, the level and direction of economic development, and human and societal factors including population movements and tourism

7. Small states are defined in relational terms • Being a small state is tied to a specific historical and geographic context, not a general characteristic of the state. • Small state is not defined by indicators such as its absolute population size or size of GDP. • a small state is defined by being the weak part in an asymmetric relationship. • small states in Europe share features involving the small scale of material and human resources, and thus limited options in both military and non-military security provision.

8. What do small states usually do? • How the small state can best hope to protect its territorial integrity, political sovereignty, national identity and freedom of action? • 3 dimensions: military/strategic, economic, and non-military • Two broad strategic options: a defensive posture focused on autonomy and avoiding trouble, as neutrality; or a proactive posture: cooperative schemes (national and international partnerships, organizations, regional and global activism) • small state is prima facie more prone than the average to seek solutions through external engagement and partnership

9. Determining the Size of a State • Traditional Criteria: • Population • Territory • GDP • Military Capacity • New Criteria • Fixed Size • Sovereignty Size • Political Size • Economic Size • Perceptual Size • Preference Size

10. New Criteria • Domestic and International Evaluation • Action Competence • Ability to formulate and implement policies domestically or internationally • Vulnerability • The degree to which a state is domestically or internationally vulnerable

11. New Criteria • Fixed Size • Population Size • Territorial Size • Sovereignty Size • Domestic control and legitimacy • Domestic state structure • Foreign perception of state sovereignty

12. New Criteria • Political Size • Military capability determined by spending and sophistication • Administrative capability: • Size of bureaucracy and foreign service

13. New Criteria • Perceptual Size • Domestic and international actors’ perceptions of the state’s size • Six features: • Views of the domestic political elite • Views of the electorate • The views of domestic actors • Thoughts of other states’ political elite • International organizations’ perceptions (such as IGOs) • Other international perceptions (such as those of NGOs)

14. National Preferences on the EU are Affected by • Left-Right Government • Legacies of World War II • Income from the EU Budget • People’s Attitudes Towards the EU

15. What can a small state to in the EU? Objective and Subjective Factors Objective: Institutional structure, norms and rules, state power (population, size, vallue added, geopolitical location) Subjective: Country’s political, social and economic practices, persuasive ideas, valid demands, reliability, consistency Small states can upload if they employ subjective criteria and find COALITION PARTNERS IN THEIR REGION AND BEYOND

16. Cleavages in the EU No Permanent Coalitions – Depends on Question, still… North-South Big-Small Atlantic-Continental Free Trade-Protectionism Givers-Takers

17. How can one study regions? Inside -out Outside –in Region-building

18. Inside-out approaches highlight possibilities for cooperation. Outside-in approaches are often predicated on the continuous possibilities for conflict within the region.  theorists may combine two approaches without giving a priori preference to any one of them. Inside-out theories tend to postulate a plethora of actors on the societal level. Outside-in theories tend to concentrate on the levels of the system and of states

19. Region building Region – building approach feeds on two specific insights offered by students of genealogies.  First , the focus on the politically constitutive and politically motivated clash of definitions,  which is not a one – off incident, but rather a perpetual process. Secondly the proposed method of enquiry.  Rather than seeing discourse as reflective of some external political reality, these authors see it as politically constitutive.  Region are defined in term of speech acts  they are talked and written into existence.

20. Sub-topics • What is Baltic? • Nordic Identities • Nordic-Baltic Region? • Russia and the Baltics • Eastern Dimension • Baltic Sea Strategy

21. Define Baltic

22. What is “Baltic”? • The location of the Baltic is in fact more a question of awareness than of geography, but that awareness has to be guided and educated. [O]ld legacies continue to dog the states formerly under Soviet domination, whilst new opportunities may undermine the fragile sense of regional community. There is much to be done. Defining the Baltic at the beginning of a new millennium is thus an exciting challenge for all who study the region (Kirby 1999).

23. Baltics in the 21st century • No more ‘Eastern Europe’ • Wanna be Northern Europe – opinion polls, branding • UK-Nordic (Baltic) dimension (EPINE)

24. Regional trajectories in the Baltics • Quantification of narratives • 4 main regions: Baltic, Northern, Baltic sea, Central (and Eastern) Europe

25. Frequencies of regional references in the neutral context before and after 2004

26. State self-affiliation to the region before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement

27. Compatibility of regional images before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement

28. What is Nordic?

29. Summing Up • Nordic: Common denominator: Nordic is defined as a welfare system and a role of the state in public policy. • Baltic: The Baltic region is seen as a different geographical region not; the Baltic states are not mentioned very often, mostly in relation to the Baltic Sea Region.

30. BVP per Capita Relative GDP per capita

31. Find us @ www.tspmi.lt facebook.com/TSPMI

45. Two Groups: Baltics are New Nordic?

46. Similarities, differences and challenges • ‘Go Norden!’ in politics • NB as a means, not goal per se • Baltic as Nordic: UN distribution, historical links, Nordic Assistance, NIB, no historical complexes, NB6(8), Nordpool • Similarities: small, dynamic, norm entrepreneurs, party systems, sound public finances, political economic partnership, FDIs • Differences: Welfare state, Human rights, Underdeveloped West, antiimigration, consensus democracies, euroscepticism, gender equality • Challenges: Financial, lack of knowledge, identity related, modern-postmodern

48. Russia and the Baltic States Russia is essential for the region Russia does not focus on BSR cooperation Desecuritisation is not a Fact yet National identity in Russia focus on the USSR Clash of identities and principles in the BSR

49. Unfriendly countries to Russia, %

50. Fears and Concerns: Russian embargoes of energy and food supplies for many countries (Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Poland, Moldova, Georgia, Czech Republic), cyber attacks, war with Georgia, unresolved homicide abroad (UK) and at home, control of media and elections, violation of human rights, destruction of political opponents and business circles, spread of propaganda and revision of history, Putin 2.0, Pussy Riot. Magnitsky.