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WHAT IS PROBABILITY?

WHAT IS PROBABILITY?. CLIL project Class II C. ACTIVITIES. CLIL project Class II C. likely. probable. coin. outcome. sample space. Jack. King. probability. set. event. Gambing. CLASSICAL DEFINITION. FREQUENTIST DEFINITION. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY.

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WHAT IS PROBABILITY?

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  1. WHAT IS PROBABILITY? CLIL project Class II C

  2. ACTIVITIES CLIL project Class II C

  3. likely probable coin outcome sample space Jack King probability set event Gambing

  4. CLASSICAL DEFINITION FREQUENTIST DEFINITION SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY Bruno De Finetti proposed the subjective theory of Probability and he worked in Triest in the first half of the XX century (University, Assicurazioni Generali) favourable possible probability divided outcomes favourable cases 3/6 = 1/2 3/10 4/10 12/90 =6/45 2/5 X 0 X 0 X 1 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 1 X 0 X 1 X 1

  5. J A C K A SE TO SS N E P OBABI LI TY F R E Q U N T I T L P L ACE D R A W F V O R A B L E F I NE TT I L K E L Y H E D C R T A I N C O N AR D Z E O

  6. P(blue)=3/9=1/3 P(not blue)= 1 – 1/3=2/3 P(jack)=4/40=1/10 P(not jack)= 1 – 1/10=9/10 P(>75)=15/90=1/6 P(not >75)= 1 – 1/6=5/6 P(odd)=3/6=1/2 P(even: not odd)= 1 – 1/2=1/2 P (your birthday)=1/365 P(not your birthday)= 1 – 1/365=364/365 P(good)=3/8 P(bad: not good)= 1 – 3/8=5/8 P(I complete)=0,23 P(I don’t complete)= 1 – 0,23 = 0,77 P(wins)=0,73 P(loses: doesn’t win)= 1 – 0,73 = 0,27 P(7)=0 P(not 7)= 1 – 0 = 1

  7. x x x x x x x x x 4/52 4/51 dependent P=4/52  4/51=16/2652 4/52 4/52 independent P=4/52  4/52=16/2704 1/37 1/37 independent P=1/37  1/37=1/1369

  8. N T ER SE C T I ON I N D I P E N D E N T M U L I P L I C A T I O N O M U T U L L Y D S JO I T X C L U S I V E A D D T I O N A D V E N N X X X X X X X X

  9. III) Find the probability of the events formed by the following couples of disjoint events: 1/6 1/6 1/6 + 1/6 =2/6 1/4 1/4 1/4 + 1/4 =1/2 1/37 0/37 1/37 + 0/37 =1/37 7/90 9/90 7/90 + 9/90 =16/90 0,45+0,15 =0,60 6/14 5/14 6/14 + 5/14 =11/14

  10. Name and Surname______________________________ • ACTIVITY 6. TOTAL PROBABILITY and REVIEW • Find the probability of the events formed by the following couples of not disjoint events: 13/52 12/52 3/52 13/52+12/52-3/52 7/90 9/90 1/90 7/90+9/90-1/90=15/90 14/25 11/25 6/25 14/25+11/25-6/25=19/25

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