Scientific Grand Challenges for Global Climate Research addressing Societies Needs

1. Scientific Grand Challenges for Global Climate Research addressing Societies Needs Martin Visbeck Gino Cassassa, James Hurrell, Thomas Peter, Theodore Shepherd, Kevin Trenberth and Howard Wheater

2. Outline Brief History Climate Information Grand ChallengesBuild Capacity

3. World Climate Conferences First World Climate Conference 1979: • World Climate Programme“Climate and its role in society” • World Climate Research Programme“Facilitate Global Climate Research” • Provided context for the foundation in 1988 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Assess Climate Change Science Knowledge”

4. Brief History Major WCRP projects have been successfully completed in the last decade. The Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project (1985–1994) established the physical basis for the understanding and prediction of El Niño temperature signals and associated changes in global climate. This led to a major breakthrough in operational seasonal climate forecasting. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) (1982–2002), the biggest and most successful global ocean research programme to date, collected observations of the world’s oceans of unprecedented quality and coverage and led to the development of important new ocean observing techniques and improved understanding of physical processes in the ocean.

5. TOGA Major WCRP projects have been successfully completed in the last decade. The Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project (1985–1994) established the physical basis for the understanding and prediction of El Niño temperature signals and associated changes in global climate. This led to a major breakthrough in operational seasonal climate forecasting. Led to improved understanding of tropicalocean-atmosphere climate interactions. Established seasonal climate predictability.

6. WOCE Major WCRP projects have been successfully completed in the last decade. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) (1982–2002), the biggest and most successful global ocean research programme to date, collected observations of the world’s oceans of unprecedented quality and coverage and led to the development of important new ocean observing techniques and improved understanding of physical processes in the ocean. First complete baseline observation of the global ocean and its circulation. Established sustained global ocean observations.

7. World Climate Conferences Second World Climate Conference 1992 • Global Climate Observing System“Design, Implement and Sustain global Observations” • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change“Develop Instruments for Mitigation and Adaptation to Global Climate Change ”

8. ACSYS Three major WCRP projects have been successfully completed in the last decade. The Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) (1985–1994) Project established the physical basis for the understanding and prediction of El Niño temperature signals and associated changes in global climate. This led to a major breakthrough in operational seasonal climate forecasting. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) (1982–2002), the biggest and most successful global ocean research programme to date, collected observations of the world’s oceans of unprecedented quality and coverage and led to the development of important new ocean observing techniques and improved understanding of physical processes in the ocean. The Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) (1994–2003) examined the complex and interrelated pieces of the Arctic climate system to ascertain its role in the global climate system.

9. ACSYS Three major WCRP projects have been successfully completed in the last decade. The Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) (1994–2003) examined the complex and interrelated pieces of the Arctic climate system to ascertain Its role in the global climate system. Established the role and sensitivity of the Arctic in the global climate system.

10. WCRP today Today the WCRP consists of four major core projects: • Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)since 1995 • Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX)since 1979 • Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)since 1992 • Climate and Cryosphere (CliC)since 2000

11. The Climate System

12. The Earth System

13. WCRP – Human Dimension Global Climate Research addressing Societies Needs ?

14. Human Dimension Millennium Development Goals Vigorous adaptation actions on the basis of: • climate scenarios and economic impact assessments; • financial needs assessments; • capacity building and risk management strategies; • integration of adaptation actions into sectoral and national planning; • the development of risk management and risk reduction strategies; including insurance, and disaster reduction strategies; • support to design of policies that are appropriate for a world of uncertainty, change and surprise. and participation.

15. Human Dimension In order to mitigate the most severe development-related impacts of climate change, new approaches must be adopted: Vigorous adaptation actions on the basis of: • climate scenarios and economic impact assessments; • financial needs assessments; • capacity building and risk management strategies; • integration of adaptation actions into sectoral and national planning; • the development of risk management and risk reduction strategies; including insurance, and disaster reduction strategies; • support to design of policies that are appropriate for a world of uncertainty, change and surprise. and participation. Mainstreaming climate (change) adaptation and mitigation through greater focus on local adaptive capacity and community engagement. What is the role of WCRP?

16. World Climate Conferences Third World Climate Conference 2009 • Global Framework for Climate Services“Provide timely climate information on global and regional scales to all people”

17. Climate Services Provide reliable, well documented, science based, authoritative and easily used climate information and develop the most effective approaches to climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Develop sustained, nationally and regionally-based interactions with users in different societal and economic sectors.

18. Elements of Climate Service The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to climate data; The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate relevant research initiatives. Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of products, including sector-oriented information to support adaptation activities; Climate user interface mechanisms focussed on building linkages and integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and users of climate services; and Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training, and strengthened outreach and communication.

19. Structure of Climate Service Global Climate Observing System World Climate Research Programme Climate services information systems Climate user interface mechanisms Enduring capacity building “Build a climate information system and climate service (IPCC is not it)” Kevin Trenberth

20. Societal Benefit Areas

21. Outline Brief History Climate Information Grand ChallengesBuild Capacity

22. ICSU Grand Challenges

23. ICSU Grand Challenges Forecasting — Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people. Observing—Develop, enhance and integrate the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change. Confining—Determine how to anticipate, recognize, avoid and manage disruptive global environmental change. Responding—Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability. Innovating—Encourage innovation (coupled with sound mechanisms for evaluation) in developing technological, policy and social responses to achieve global sustainability.

24. Framing Challenges “Measuring what we must manage” Jacqueline McGladeEuropean Environment Agency

25. Framing Challenges Heide Hackmann “Can science save us: How can we better anticipate the consequences of change?”

26. Framing Challenges META QUESTIONS “How to improve and apply science-based analyses and models to anticipate potential consequences of human actions on the environment and society.And what are the limits to such approaches?” Karen O’Brien

27. Framing Challenges “Understanding how temperatures are increasing around the world, how ice is melting at the poles, and how rain is decreasing in key regions are among the critical issues attracting the attention of the public, scientists, and policymakers worldwide.” Susan Solomon

28. WCRP - Objectives The overarching objectives of the WCRP are: • to determine the predictability of climate • to determine the effect of human activities on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”

29. Develop Grand Challenges Develop and evolve WCRP Grand Challenges around several criteria: • scientific importance • opportunity to make considerable progress • benefit from international coordination • relevant for societal issues Need a champion, interest of funders and the scientific capacity to address them.

30. Exemplary Grand Challenges • The global and regional water cycle • Decadal climate predictability • Atmospheric chemistry and jet stream dynamics • Polar climate predictability • Monsoon variability and change • Dynamics of ocean upwelling system • Droughts • Ice sheet dynamics • Predictability of extreme events • Climate Engineering

31. Exemplary Grand Challenges The global and regional water cycle 31

32. Exemplary Grand Challenges Decadal climate predictability • Clear evidence of decadal variability in ocean and atmosphere, but to what extent is it predictable? • What are the sources of predictability and the processes that give rise to decadal variability? Projected Atlantic SST Change Decadal Variations: • Forced by External • Processes • Generated by Internal Processes • Interactions of Forced and Natural Variability

33. Exemplary Grand Challenges Atmospheric chemistry and jet stream dynamics 850 hPa jet location Edge of Hadley cell Son et al. (2010 JGR) 33

34. Exemplary Grand Challenges Polar climate predictabilityWCRP Workshop on Polar Predictability on Seasonal to Multi‐Decadal Timescales (workshop Bergen, October 2010) Progress in polar predictability will require crossing disciplinary boundaries to understand feedbacks between the troposphere and the stratosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. • The nature of these feedbacks appears to be somewhat different in the two hemispheres, leading to somewhat different “big questions”: – Arctic: How rapidly will the Arctic warm in the future? – Antarctic: How will the ocean, carbon uptake, and the West Antarctic ice shelf respond to circulation changes? • Examples of possible research foci: – Seasonal predictability and seasonality of longterm changes – Forced and unforced components of decadal predictability – Initial state estimates – Extent of potential predictability

35. Exemplary Grand Challenges Droughts • WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate Barcelona, March 2011 • Three Major Recommendations: • Drought Catalogue • Summarizing key drivers of global drought events. • 2. Case Studies • Focusing on large-scale and regional issues in areas where drought is a key issue. • 3. Develop Drought Early Warning System

36. Exemplary Grand Challenges Climate Engineering Feasible? Beneficial?Justifiable? Manageable? To what extent one can rely on modelling studies? How could viable strategies be tested in practice?

37. Exemplary Grand Challenges • The global and regional water cycle • Decadal climate predictability • Atmospheric chemistry and jet stream dynamics • Polar climate predictability • Monsoon variability and change • Dynamics of ocean upwelling system • Droughts • Ice sheet dynamics • Predictability of extreme events • Climate Engineering

38. Build Capacity In order to make progress on any of the Grand Challenges the global community needs adequate scientific capacity: • Improved & sustained global observations. • More realistic global and regional climate (earth system) models & computing power. • Reanalysis, assessments and predictions. • Increased and enduring education in the developed and developing world.

39. Opportunities • Public support because of awareness and real impact of climate change • User-driven needs imply that we do not have to be our own advocates. • Focus on regional climate change (rather than global mean surface temperature) puts emphasis on some fundamental processes. • Improvements in computing power. • New observational data sets (e.g. subsurface ocean observations, soil moisture, sea-ice thickness).

40. Challenges Funding to help coordinate international activities in the face of constrained budgets. Observations: loss, discontinuation, postponement. Fighting the perception that “climate science is done”. Continuing to improve (not just add to) the models. Empowering developing countries. Engaging the next generation of scientists.

41. You can provide input! Monday: The Climate System Components and their Interactions Tuesday: Observation and Analysis of the Climate System Wednesday: Assessing and Improving Model and Predictive Capabilities Thursday: Climate Synthesis and Assessments Friday: Translating Scientific Understanding into Climate Information for Decision Makers Key challenges are: How to handle cross-cutting activities? Development of regional capabilities? Connecting to users