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Cheol Oh, Ph.D., cheolo@koti.re.kr Korean Pedestrian Working Group and

Economic Appraisal for Technical Regulation on Pedestrian Protection (I): focused on head protection. Cheol Oh, Ph.D., cheolo@koti.re.kr Korean Pedestrian Working Group and Center for Advanced Transportation Research Center The Korea Transport Institute. Estimation of Target Population.

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Cheol Oh, Ph.D., cheolo@koti.re.kr Korean Pedestrian Working Group and

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  1. Economic Appraisal for Technical Regulation on Pedestrian Protection (I):focused on head protection Cheol Oh, Ph.D., cheolo@koti.re.kr Korean Pedestrian Working Group and Center for Advanced Transportation Research Center The Korea Transport Institute

  2. Estimation of Target Population • Pedestrian accident study in Korea • 128 pedestrian-vehicle collisions (data collected by the end of March, 2005, on-going) • Fatalities • develop ‘probabilistic pedestrian fatality model ’ • Apply logistic regression technique • Injuries: • Korean accident statistics • IHRA ratios (adults and child )

  3. Target Population Estimation-Fatalities Total Fatalities Pedestrian Fatalities Collision speed 40kph No. of Accident for Vehicle Type No. of Accident for Crash Speed Group No of Fatalities per Crash Speed Group HIC 1000 Potential Decrease in Fatalities for Given HIC Standard 175 persons Decrease in Fatalities for HIC Standard

  4. Fatality reduction by regulation Total number of pedestrian fatalities Ratio of head injuries Ratio of vehicle types Ratio of collision speed less than a given CS threshold Pedestrian fatality probability with a given CS Pedestrian survival probability with a given HIC Pedestrian Fatality Reduction

  5. Modeling of Pedestrian Fatality • Logistic Regression

  6. Example: 40kph, HIC 1000

  7. Fatality Reduction Fatality Reduction (persons) HIC Collision Speed

  8. Decrease in Serious Injuries - Children 348,184 Total Injuries Total Pedestrian Injuries 60,354 Korean statistics Children Pedestrian Injuries 12,071 4,949 Head Injuries Apply IHRA ratios Decrease in Serious Injuries 3,259

  9. Decrease in Serious Injuries - Adults 348,184 Total Injuries Total Pedestrian Injuries 60,354 Korean statistics Adults Pedestrian Injuries 48,282 Adults Head Injuries 14,002 Apply IHRA ratios Decrease in Serious Injuries 13,036

  10. Benefit Estimation $1=1,050won Decrease in Serious Injured Decrease in Fatalities 175 16,295 Social Cost Per Fatalities (thousand won) Social Cost Saving Per Serious Injured (thousand won) 72,109 20,962 Social Benefit Of Fatalities Decrease (million won) Social Benefit Of Serious Injured Decrease (million won) 12,619 341,576 Annual Total Benefit (million won) 358,377

  11. Benefit Cost Ratio Additional Repair Cost Per Accident when Equipped with Pedestrian Protection System B/C Ratio \500,000 (Total 177,637,000,000) 1.93 \700,000 (Total 248,691,800,000) 1.37 \900,000 (Total \319,746,600,000) 1.07

  12. Closing Remarks • More extensive study with accident data is still on-going • Attempts to develop a new way of estimating target population with statistical modeling approaches • More statistically significant results are expected

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