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Scenario Construction Via Cross Impact

The Network Nation and Beyond A Festschrift in Honor of Starr Roxanne Hiltz and Murray Turoff. Scenario Construction Via Cross Impact. Prof. Victor A. Bañuls Management Department Pablo de Olavide University Seville, Spain Email: vabansil@upo.es Web: http://webdee.upo.es/vabansil.

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Scenario Construction Via Cross Impact

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  1. The Network Nation and Beyond A Festschrift in Honor of Starr Roxanne Hiltz and Murray Turoff Scenario Construction Via Cross Impact Prof. Victor A. Bañuls Management Department Pablo de Olavide University Seville, Spain Email: vabansil@upo.es Web: http://webdee.upo.es/vabansil Distinguished Prof. Murray Turoff Information Systems Department New Jersey Institute of Technology Newark NJ, USA Email: turoff@njit.edu Web: http://web.njit.edu/~turoff/ NJIT – October 2007

  2. Index • Research motivations • Methodological background • Generating scenarios • Conclusions

  3. Research motivations • Why do we need scenarios? • Strategic decision making (policy, business, etc.) compromise resources in the long term. • We need to think about what will happen tomorrow before acting today. • A scenario is a tool for managing the uncertainty of the future. • Our proposal is aimed at contributing to this goal.

  4. Research motivations • What is the aim of our proposal? • Helping decision makers to manage the uncertainty. • How? • Structuring and sharing the beliefs and the knowledge of the people involved in decision making. • But… how can we do that? • By the structural analysis of the impacts between the atomic events that are relevant to the decision-making problem.

  5. Methodological background • Cross-Impact Method • Events cannot be analyzed in a isolated way. • Alternative cross-impact approach (Turoff, 1972): Inferring impacts between events based on experts’ hypothesis about their occurrence (or not).

  6. Methodological background +/- Impacts between events in the model C43 Cross-Impact Matrix Impacts of the events not included in the model

  7. Methodological background • Interpretive structural modeling • Taking as an input the impacts obtained with the CIM, this methodology will help us to: • Making hypotheses about the occurrence or not of the set of events and analyzed them (to generate scenarios). • Detecting and analyzing the key drivers (critical events).

  8. Methodological background Ei Events Input Pi Sij Rij Set of probabilities (isolated and conditional) CIM Cross-Impact Method Cij Gi Cross-Impact Matrix Output

  9. Methodological background Ei Events Pi Sij Rij Set of probabilities (isolated and conditional) CIM Cross-Impact Method Cij Gi Cross-Impact Matrix Input ISM Interpretive Structural modeling Scenarios Output

  10. Methodological background Scenario Occurring events Non-Occurring events 8 9 10 2 7 3 6 5 1 Key drivers

  11. Generating scenarios • Sensitivity Analysis • Studying the Cij distribution. • Solving the forecasted scenario • Determining the limit of the forecasted scenario. • Solving the alternative scenarios • Determining the limit of the alternative scenarios. • Interpretation of results • Analyzing the information included in each scenario.

  12. Generating scenarios

  13. Generating scenarios

  14. Generating scenarios

  15. Generating scenarios

  16. Conclusions • Aims of the model • Handle complex systems. • Obtain a set of plausible snapshots of the future. • Analyze interaction between events. • Detect critical events. • Application areas • Technology Foresight. • Strategic Management. • Policy Analysis. • Emergency Response. • Etc…

  17. Conclusions • Strong points • A strong theoretical background of the techniques on which the authors proposal in based. • The possibility of working with large sets of events. • Tools for analyzing the key drivers of the scenarios. • Specific software is not needed for making the calculations. • A graphic output that gives a clear representation about the forecast. • It is strongly compatible with other techniques such as the Delphi or multicriteria methods.

  18. Conclusions • Limitations • We cannot kwon the probability of occurrence of a specific scenario if it is not an output of the model. • The estimation of the occurrence or non-occurrence estimation of the scenarios needs the interpretation of the key drivers and sometimes it would be difficult if there is a probability of occurrence close to 0.5.

  19. Thank you for your attention! Scenario Construction Via Cross Impact Prof. Victor A. Bañuls Management Department Pablo de Olavide University Seville, Spain Email: vabansil@upo.es Web: http://webdee.upo.es/vabansil Distinguished Prof. Murray Turoff Information Systems Department New Jersey Institute of Technology Newark NJ, USA Email: turoff@njit.edu Web: http://web.njit.edu/~turoff/

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