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Estimated Prices Screen

Estimated Prices Screen. Clark Cheng, Jeff Chung, Tara Ellwanger & JungWoo Yang. Hypothesis. Betting with the experts will produce winning results. Data Selection. Used IBES Data from 1983 – 1992 Did “Mean Estimate” go up from previous month? Tracked # “ups” in previous 6 mo period.

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Estimated Prices Screen

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  1. Estimated Prices Screen Clark Cheng, Jeff Chung, Tara Ellwanger & JungWoo Yang

  2. Hypothesis Betting with the experts will produce winning results

  3. Data Selection • Used IBES Data from 1983 – 1992 • Did “Mean Estimate” go up from previous month? • Tracked # “ups” in previous 6 mo period

  4. Fractile Selection Methodology • Select stocks with most and least up movements for previous 6mo period • Sort those stocks based on returns for same 6mo period • Calculate return at end of each 6mo period

  5. Post Game Analysis

  6. Lessons Learned • Consistent upward adjustments in estimated earnings are not necessarily indicative of future positive returns • Be wary of the experts • Contrarian viewpoint may prove to be successful

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