22 nd September 2009 City Hall, Cardiff Faith Action on Climate Change ‘What if we do nothing?’

1. 22nd September 2009 City Hall, Cardiff Faith Action on Climate Change ‘What if we do nothing?’ Dr. Alan Netherwood Netherwood Sustainable Futures alan.netherwood@talktalk.net Honorary Research Fellow, Cardiff School of City and Regional Planning, Cardiff University

2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

3. Alternative ‘Adaptation’ Futures known adaptation required to 2040s known mitigation required to 2040s unknown adaptation required after 2040s unknown mitigation required after 2040s

5. observations Medium-High emissions (modelled) Are our systems fit for purpose? European summer temperatures Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre

6. China and India = global equity on carbon emissions? Emissions

7. A decreasing carbon budget? ~ 9% p.a. reduction ….. requiring dramatic annual carbon reductions between 2012-2032 .....if 2°C rise is to be avoided from: Tyndall Centre

8. Supply and 'Business-As-Usual Demand' Gap The effect of “Peak Oil” Unconventional Oil Conventional Oil Source: PostCarbon Institute (2008)

9. where are we going to get our energy from? will cap and trade schemes work (EUETS and CRC)? the role of nuclear energy in an nuclear ‘free’ country? the role of our coal reserves and carbon capture and storage? government intervention on transport choice - road and congestion charging ? carbon reduction bang for buck through microgeneration in households? Severn Barrage contribution to reducing Wales’ footprint peak oil’s affect on carbon reduction? agriculture’s role in capturing carbon in the landscape and food versus biomass? is the system fit for purpose – market v intervention? Wicked issues on Carbon Reduction

10. The long term ‘climate’ forecast for Wales • hotter summers, milder winters • longer growing season • more rain in winter, less in summer • warmer seas • sea level rise of 1 metre (2100) • increase in extreme years • more droughts, heatwaves, flooding • frequent and violent storms/gales • similar to Brittany or Galicia in Spain? • new UKCP09 – provides probablistic data • dual approach of MITIGATION and ADAPTATION

11. Wicked Issues on Climate Adaptation Economy – paying for what needs to be done to adapt Water Resources – ensuring enough water for everyone Health – protecting vulnerable sections of society Flooding – managing risks of sea level rise and river flows Wildlife – helping species to migrate in and out Landscape – balancing needs for food, biofuels and water Agriculture – protecting soils, water and skills Food – security of supply, sustainable production Migrants – providing resources, welcoming communities

12. Perfect storm of scarcity will unleash global turmoil: • The Guardian Thursday 19 March 2009 • A ‘perfect storm of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy resources threaten to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migration as people flee the worst (climate change) affected regions the government’s chief scientist, Professor John Beddington warns today • Our food reserves are at a 50 year low but by 2030 we need to be producing 50% more food, with 50% more energy and 30% more fresh water. There are dramatic problems out there...and they are all intimately connected....We must deal with all of these together A message from our chief scientist.....

13. A final thought..........

14. Thankyou for listeningDiolch yn fawr Dr. Alan Netherwood, WLGA/Netherwood Sustainable Futures alan.netherwood@talktalk.net