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Quarterly Financial Accounts in Slovak Republic JÁN SEMAN Head of Section on Financial Accounts and IT Support National Bank of Slovakia Prague, 14-15 September 2009. Content. The meaning of QFA Data sources for QFA and compilation process
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Quarterly Financial Accounts in Slovak Republic JÁN SEMAN Head of Section on Financial Accounts and IT Support National Bank of Slovakia Prague, 14-15 September 2009
Content • The meaning of QFA • Data sources for QFA and compilation process • Analysis of QFA in connection with economic crisis • Analysis of QFA in connection with euro adoption in Slovakia Prague 14-15 September 2009
The meaning of QFA • to give exhausted information on financial flows and stocks between institutional sectors and between them and the Rest of the World • analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanism • financial market stability Prague 14-15 September 2009
Data sources for QFA and compilation process • QFA as a compiled statistics - specific data sources for relevant sectors and subsectors of economy - specific data sources for some financial instruments (e.g. securities) • Data coverage - the most available are the data from financial market - the least available are the data for non-financial corporations and households Prague 14-15 September 2009
Data sources for QFA and compilation process • Data consistency - different methodology of data - different period of data revision - different time of recording of transaction - wrong data from data sources Prague 14-15 September 2009
Data sources for QFA and compilation process • Data sources for QFA compilation - internal sources of the National bank of Slovakia: - money and banking statistics - BoP and International Investment Position - Investment funds and asset management companies statistics - statistics of subjects of financial intermediation (leasing, factoring, installment payments) - securities dealers statistics - stock exchange and central depository statistics - balance sheets and statistical data from insurance companies, pension funds and supplementary pension funds and their asset management companies Prague 14-15 September 2009
Data sources for QFA and compilation process • external sources - balance sheets of public sector entities (Ministry of Finance of SR) and QFAGG (Statistical Office of SR) - Final account of state budget (MFSR) - sample surveys of non-financial corporations and households (SOSR) - annual financial accounts (SOSR) Prague 14-15 September 2009
Analysis of QFA in the view of economic crisis • Trade credits and advances of non-financial corporations • development in line with business cycle • in boom the highest share of trade credits and advances on total assets and liabilities • at the beginning of recession more intensive decline of liabilities in comparison with assets – is the reason the tougher payments discipline at purchasing goods in comparison with sale of goods? Prague 14-15 September 2009
Share of trade credits and advances of non-financial corporations on total assets/liabilities Prague 14-15 September 2009
Trade credits and advances of non-financial corporations (4 quarter cumulative sum) Prague 14-15 September 2009
Analysis of QFA in the view of economic crisis • Trade credits and avances of non-financial corporations towards the rest of the world • 1/3 of all trade credits and advances in relationship with the rest of the world • in line with trade balance • in time of better foreign trade balance more dynamic decline of both, active and passive trade credits • in recession common development with trade balance Prague 14-15 September 2009
Trade credits and advances to the rest of the world (4Q cumulative sum) in comparison with export Prague 14-15 September 2009
Trade credits and advances from the rest of the world (4Q cumulative sum) in comparison with import Prague 14-15 September 2009
Analysis of QFA in the view of economic crisis • Net lending(+)/borrowing (-) • it mirrors the current and capital accounts developments • long-term increasing of debt position of Slovakia • main contributors are firms and government • in financial instruments the main contributors are securities and loans • in 1Q09 the development influenced by euro adoption Prague 14-15 September 2009
Net lending (+)/borrowing (-) by sectors Prague 14-15 September 2009
Net lending (+)/borrowing (-) by instruments Prague 14-15 September 2009
Analysis of QFA in the view of economic crisis • Other forms of financing - influence of crisis on financing of non-financial corporations by banks loans was lower in comparison with trade credits - credits from abroad more volatile - the government slowly increases its expenditures - the address is questionable – the data under significant revisions - loans – the main source of households financing - in 2008 movement of money from investment funds to deposits Prague 14-15 September 2009
Non-financial corporations financing by long-term loans (4Q cumulative sum) Prague 14-15 September 2009
Government bonds issue (net change) Prague 14-15 September 2009
Governments investments by financial instruments Prague 14-15 September 2009
Governments investments by sectors Prague 14-15 September 2009
Households investments in mutual funds (4Q cumulative sum) Prague 14-15 September 2009
Analysis of QFA in the view of economic crisis • Revaluations of financial instruments • The only directly available data from banks and NBS • The highest revaluations in derivatives and debt securities of NBS • Increase of loans write-offs in banks portfolio in 4Q 2008 Prague 14-15 September 2009
Financial derivatives revaluation (net value) Prague 14-15 September 2009
Revaluation of loans granted by banks Prague 14-15 September 2009
Analysis of QFA in the view of euro adoption in Slovakia • Euro adoption in Slovakia • sharp increase of deposits of households and non-financial corporations and decline of currency in circulation at the end of 2008 • cancelling of banks sterilization position at the NBS and increase of deposits of banks abroad • significant outflow of foreign entities deposits at domestic banks Prague 14-15 September 2009
Currency in circulation and households deposits Prague 14-15 September 2009
Liabilities of NBS owned by banks Prague 14-15 September 2009
Deposits of non-financial corporations and rest of the world at banks (4Q cumulative sum) Prague 14-15 September 2009
Long-term deposits of banks in rest of the world (4Q cumulative sum) Prague 14-15 September 2009
Thank you for your attention Prague 14-15 September 2009