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ASSESSMENT OF THE NEW GREAT LAKES WATERSPOUT FORECAST SYSTEM

ASSESSMENT OF THE NEW GREAT LAKES WATERSPOUT FORECAST SYSTEM. 2013 Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Victor Chung & Wade Szilagyi Meteorological Service of Canada April 9, 2013. Introduction – The Great Lakes Waterspout Forecast System (GLWFS).

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ASSESSMENT OF THE NEW GREAT LAKES WATERSPOUT FORECAST SYSTEM

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  1. ASSESSMENT OF THE NEW GREAT LAKES WATERSPOUT FORECAST SYSTEM 2013 Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Victor Chung & Wade Szilagyi Meteorological Service of Canada April 9, 2013

  2. Introduction – The Great Lakes Waterspout Forecast System (GLWFS) • Experimental tool → potential for waterspouts over the Great Lakes • Output → Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI), 0-48 hrs • Automation of the Waterspout Nomogram • Used for the first time in 2012 at the OSPC

  3. Verification - Methodology

  4. Verification Considerations -Seasonal Period • Peak of waterspout season (August - September) chosen

  5. Verification Considerations - Diurnal Time Period • Daytime only (12-18Z, 18-24Z)

  6. Verification Considerations – Areal Coverage • Half lake resolution (marine forecast sub-zones)

  7. Verification - Database • 13,180 entries

  8. Verification - Database • Date (Aug. – Sept.) • Time (12-18Z, 18-24Z) • Location (i.e. western Lake Erie) • Forecast/Observed/Possible Waterspouts (Yes/No) • Forecast SWI (<0, 0, 1,…,10) • SWI Percent Coverage (0, 25, 50, 75,100%) • Forecast/Observation Location Correlation (Yes/No) • Lead Time (0-48 hrs)

  9. Verification - Results • N = 1,318

  10. Verification - Results

  11. Verification - Results • Average Lead Time = 36 hrs! • Forecast/Observation Location Correlation = 92% • Forecast SWI value -waterspout events most frequently associated with forecast SWI ≥ 7 • SWI Percent Coverage -over half of the events occurred when coverage was ≥ 75% → SWI areal coverage is a factor to consider when forecasting waterspouts

  12. Case Study –Waterspout Outbreak (Aug. 9-13, 2012)

  13. 1500Z, Aug 09, 2012 1604z 1542z A few waterspouts 1601z

  14. 1800Z, Aug 09, 2012 1700z 1710z Funnels and 2 waterspouts 1700z A few waterspouts 1710-1735z Multiple waterspouts 1926z

  15. 2100Z, Aug 09, 2012 2137z Multiple waterspouts 2145z

  16. 0600Z, Aug 10, 2012 0524z

  17. 1200Z, Aug 10, 2012 1242-1248z 2 waterspouts

  18. 0000Z, Aug 11, 2012 Early evening 2 funnels

  19. 1200Z, Aug 11, 2012 1330z

  20. 1500Z, Aug 11, 2012 1630z

  21. 2100Z, Aug 11, 2012 2000z

  22. 0000Z, Aug 12, 2012 2325z

  23. 1200Z, Aug 12, 2012 1506z 1510-1525z 2+ waterspouts

  24. Conclusion The Waterspout Forecast System: • Has a very good lead time • Has excellent rare event skill score • Has good non-rare event skill scores

  25. Future Work • Include surface convergence (SWI → ESWI) • Higher resolution model output (horizontal and vertical) • Distinguish between “Severe Wx” vs “Fair Wx” waterspouts • Expand to other marine areas: Atlantic/Pacific coasts, globally • Experimental → Operational • Investigate use as a landspout forecast tool

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