Welcome to Earthquake Country: Impact of future quakes

1. Welcome to Earthquake Country: Impact of future quakes Mary Lou Zoback, Ph.D. Vice President, Earthquake Risk Applications Risk Management Solutions Newark, CA Joint BARCfirst-BENS-BRMA Infrastructure Symposium June 25th, 2009

2. 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS Available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/1989

3. 1906 M7.9 simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS Available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/1906

4. FORECAST: Major earthquake likely in the next 30 years

5. Major Faults in the San Francisco Bay Area

6. Measuring plate motion directly with GPS

9. Mean Recurrence Past 12 quakes 165 ± 61 yrs Past 9 quakes 151 ± 64 yrs Past 5 quakes 138 ± 58 yrs

10. 18 (1836-1906) 70 ,

11. FORECAST: Major earthquake likely in the next 30 years

12. Past 5 quakes 1906 M7.9 simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGSSilicon Valley perspective Available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/1906

13. Simulation of the 1906 Earthquake (Shawn Larsen, Lawrence Livermore National Lab) Directivity = Energy focused in direction of fault rupture

14. 1906 - The Big One The Bad One (Shawn Larsen, Lawrence Livermore National Lab)

15. California’s Levee Problem • strong shaking causes liquefaction and collapse • Bay salt water rushes in • shuts down drinking water for 2/3 Californians • (20-30% S CA water supply) Sacramento Vulnerable to floods - 1986 Torres et al. (2000) 15

16. Who will pay?

17. $0.0 Quake Scenarios Past Quakes Hurricanes Historic losses from public records, scenario losses from RMS RiskLink 9.0

18. $0.0 Quake Scenarios Past Quakes Hurricanes Historic losses from public records, scenario losses from RMS RiskLink 9.0