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NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era

NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era. Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services November 15, 2005. Climate. Atmosphere. Land. Oceans. Space Environment. Overview. NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era.

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NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era

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  1. NWS & IAEMPartnership in the Digital Era Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services November 15, 2005 “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  2. Climate Atmosphere Land Oceans Space Environment Overview NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era • The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water • 2005 (YTD) in Review • The Future: Action for America • Strategic Initiatives “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  3. The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water A Typical Year Brings: • 6 Hurricanes • 1,000 Tornadoes • 5,000 Floods • 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms • Drought Conditions • 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; $14 Billion in Losses • Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life andproperty and enhance the economy • 76 billion observations • 1.5 million forecasts • 50,000 warnings “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  4. The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water Information Technology Observations Products & Services Dissemination Research Research to Operations Action Data Assimilation and Modeling “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  5. The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water 2005 in Review (YTD) “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  6. The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water Atlantic Tropical Cyclones since 1886 “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  7. Forecast for The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water 2005 in Review (YTD) 000 WWUS74 KLIX 281550 NPWLIX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED.... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITYOF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BEUNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TOCOMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA…EVEN STRONGER…HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER… AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS… LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES… CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION.PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWNAND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN.LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! Advisory 23 Issued Hurricane Katrina “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  8. The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water Hurricane KatrinaCostly Human and Societal Effects 2005 in Review (YTD) Photos by AP “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  9. Record YTD The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water 2005 in Review (YTD) “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  10. The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water 2005 in Review (YTD) Indiana & Kentucky Tornadoes (Nov. 6) AP Photos “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  11. The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water 2005 in Review (YTD) Cheshire County Floods Oct. 17 “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  12. The Future Action for America “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  13. The Future Action for America Community Preparedness & Safety “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  14. The Future Action for America Successful Community Preparedness • Van Wert, Ohio is StormReady • Preparedness in Place • Threat Detected • Warning Issued • Warning Understood • Action Taken • LIVES SAVED Photo credit: Todd Campbell “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  15. The Future Action for America Air Quality Forecasts Current Radar Upgraded Radar Integrating and Improving Skills & Tools • Know and Anticipate Customer Needs • Research to Operations • Balanced Skill Mix • Infuse Proven Science and Technology • Grow National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) • Better Radar IFPS Gridded Forecast Database TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  16. The Future Action for America Total Environmental Awareness Atmosphere SpaceWeather Snow Pack Air Quality TerrestrialWeather Ocean FreshWater Estuaries Soil Moisture “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  17. The Future Action for America More weather data Higher resolution forecasts Visual displays of probability User-defined products create business opportunities TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%. Radio stations & public read text forecasts Commercial weather companies & emergency managers use grids to generate tailored products The public, emergency managers and city planners use WWW. graphic products for detailed forecasts Digital Services (NDFD) Different Products for Different Customers “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  18. The Future Action for America Polygon Warnings & Demographic Data Polygon Eliminates False Alarm Area “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  19. The Future Action for America • Advances • Observations • Data Assimilation • Models • Forecasting Techniques • Information Technology • Dissemination Methods Results Improved Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts Improved Tornado and Flash Flood Forecasts Improved Aviation, Fire, Marine, and Space Weather Forecasts Improved Flood, River, and Ocean Predictions Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc. “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  20. The Future Action for America Three Strategic Initiatives • Develop an organization-wide concept of operations • Consolidate data-level IT management • Provide Aviation Products and Services “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  21. The Future Action for America Strategic Initiatives Develop an Organization-Wide Concept of Operations “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  22. The Future Action for America Integrative Communication Model NOAA NWS PARTNERS END USERS “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

  23. NWS & IAEMPartnership in the Digital Era Academic/ Research Broadcasters Emergency Managers Protect Life and Property & Enhance U.S.A Economy NOAA NWS Private Sector “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

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