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Steps to a Sustainable B altic Sea Region Lars Rydén Director

Steps to a Sustainable B altic Sea Region Lars Rydén Director Baltic University Programme Uppsala University www.balticuniv.uu.se. Something N ew Und er the S un John McNeill, 2000. Development 1900 – 2000 global population 4 x global economy 14 x industrial production 40 x

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Steps to a Sustainable B altic Sea Region Lars Rydén Director

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  1. Steps to a Sustainable Baltic Sea Region Lars Rydén Director Baltic University Programme Uppsala University www.balticuniv.uu.se

  2. Something New Under the SunJohn McNeill, 2000 • Development 1900 – 2000 • global population 4 x • global economy 14 x • industrial production 40 x • energy use 16 x • carbon dioxide emissions 17 x • sulphur dioxide emissions 13 x • ocean fishing catches 35 x • number of pigs 9 x • forests 0.8 x • agricultural fields 2 x • blue whale 0.0025 x

  3. The Baltic Sea region development • Energy budget 6-8 x • Fishing in the Baltic Sea 4-6 x ? • Forest production 2-4 x ? TWh Swedish energy budget 1900-2000

  4. Development! From Joachim Spangenberg Sustainable Europe Research Institute 1900 2000 1800

  5. Development! From Wackernagel and Reese authors of the ecolo- gical footprint concept

  6. How much space do we have? • Surface area analysis - footprints • a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed • Material flows analysis • a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed • Energy flows analysis • linked to material flows • But in industrial countries this makes a factor of close to ten !

  7. Do we see changes at the turn of the millennium ? Population Growth rate is decreasing since about 1994 Energy flows Globally a steady increase continues Economic expansion Globally a steady increase continues

  8. International rankings on Sustainability in the world place the Nordic countries in the top 5 and the Baltic States in the top 20. Russia and Poland is lagging behind. How are the countries in the world doing?

  9. The Baltic Sea region has a special possibility to be a leader in the path towards a sustainable future.But there is much left to be done!

  10. The problem of coupling or linking Economy is coupled to material flows In industrial economies GDP is coupled to resources flows. However, in the west a significant increase in GDP/resource flow is seen in since 1970s. But this gain is offset by an increased per capita consumption, the so called rebound effect. In addition98 % of the products in Europe are ending up as waste today. Linear flows dominate.

  11. Resource flow/GDP as CO2 emissions 1970-2000 From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson,Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics EU-15 Sweden

  12. How to achieve decoupling ? The service economy We need to de-materialise the economy The recycling society We have to recycle the resources The solar society We have to de-carbonise the energy flows

  13. How to approach the problem ? 1. Basic – material or energy flows 2. Sectors – industry, agriculture etc, 3. Societal framework – legal framework, governance 4. Personal – lifestyle, ethics

  14. We will look at four problemareas 1. Energy 2. Transport 3. Urbanisation 4. Demography

  15. 1. ENERGY Current developments - Globally - energy consumption is increasing - Baltic Sea Region – slow increase; during periods constant - Energy use is dominated by fossil fuels - Today we use in the west about 100 energy slaves per person Tendencies for the future: • Coal is used less • Gas is used more • Transport sector consumption is increasing No serious efforts to out-phase fossils

  16. Costs of using fossil fuels • Non-renewable resources are used • Climate effect, global warming • Acidification • Eutrophication • Air pollution • Pollution with heavy metals

  17. The carbon content of the energy From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson,Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics

  18. The peak oil dilemma

  19. The peak oil dilemma

  20. Alternative energy developments 1. Housing sector (About 30 % of energy budget) • Energy efficient houses more common • Biomass in increasing • Heat pumps increasing in Sweden • Solar panels slowly increasing • Value of increased efficiency 19 BSEK in Sweden alone

  21. Alternative energy developments 2. Industry sector (About 30 % of energy budget) • Cleaner production approach introduced • Large potential for energy savings • Certification addresses energy • Product policies addresses energy ISO 14001 EMAS

  22. Energy intensity per sector (E/GDP)- Industry- Transport- Service- ResidentialFrom Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics EU-15 Sweden

  23. Sustainable Development dimensions Environmental Addresses the fundamental dilemma of non-renewable resource use and pollution Social Improved health potential Economic Immense economic loss in present regime

  24. 2. TRANSPORT Current developments -Globally – mobility is increasing steeply - Baltic Sea Region – fast increase - Energy use is dominated by fossil fuels - Today we travel on an average 40 km/capita/day Tendencies for the future: -Transport sector consumption is dominated by cars - Up to one car per drivers licence - Tourism increasing - Commuting is increasing No serious efforts to address mobility increase

  25. Mobility developments EU-15 1980-2000 From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson,Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on EEA statistics

  26. Mobility costs • Non-renewable resource use • Infrastructure costs • Increased forced mobility • Health costs: pollution, accidents • Economic costs

  27. Alternative mobility developments 1 Urban and personal transport • Decreased mobility – use of ICT • Decreased mobility – more efficient urban planning • Decreased mobility – shop less far away • Improved public transport • Increased biking in cities • Mobility management initiatives

  28. Alternative mobility developments 2 Technical • Alternative fuels introduced • Energy efficient cars have a large potential • Ecological driving Freight sector • Rail transport increasing • Transport addressed in product policies • Safer ship transport in the Baltic Sea?

  29. 3. URBANISATION Current developments - Cities as classical unhealthy environments less serious - Ecological footprints of cities very large - Globally – urbanisation increasing, now passed 50 % - Baltic Sea Region – urbanisation increasing - Some mega cities – uneven development Tendencies for the future: - Urbanisation continues - Urban transport problems critical - Air pollution still problematic No serious efforts to address urbanisation

  30. Alternative urban developments 1 Improved personal life • How people want to live – improved housing • Rebuilding slab house areas • Urban integrative planning • Cities for people, not cars

  31. Alternative urban developments 2 Improved urban management • Improved energy management – district heating • Improved traffic planning – safer streets • Improved waste management • Greener cities • The factor five city is possible Rural and urban cooperation • Economic alternatives to agriculture • Making town and rural life attractive

  32. 4. DEMOGRAPHY Current developments - Globally – population growth is decreasing - Baltic Sea Region – population growth is levelling off - Population “collapse” in East is decreasing - Population is ageing (LE increases 3 months/year!) Tendencies for the future -Population will stabilise - Public social care in crisis - Public income and social care in crisis No serious efforts to address age challenge

  33. The welfare state • The welfare tasks – child care, education, elderly care, health care • Division of duties between the public, the family and other actors • The responsibility of the individual

  34. Compare GDP with Social Progress Indicators (Source www.nnn.org)

  35. Another approach – to study development as such • Different development types • Different actors • The role of incentives and policies • Practical “frames”

  36. Different types of development • Business as usual the market will fix it • Technological optimism the technology will fix it • Environmental modernisation Business will fix it • Rio and Agenda 21 development Civil society and democracy will fix it • Structural change We will have to build a new infrastructure • Deep ecology Ethics will fix it

  37. Who are the actors?

  38. Frames for practical work 1. Brundtland Commission, 1987 Safeguarding possibilities for future generations 2. Rio Conference, UNCED, 1992 The 40 chapters in Agenda 21 3. The natural Step Foundation Four systems conditions for sustainable development 4. Eco-design wheel Eight steps to sustainable products and services 5. Alan Atiksson approach The compass, the pyramid 6. Finland’s Future Studies Academy Forecasting, back casting, visioning

  39. Business "Business leaders who align their business strategy and technical development with sustainability and social accountability will deliver superior long-term results to shareholders." - Al Gore - Baltic Sea region based companies adjusting their business policy towards Sustainable Development and Corporate Social Responsibility include IKEA, Ericsson, and Kesko Corporation; companies implementing EMS certification and GRI reporting are increasing.

  40. Something New Under the Sun, John McNeill, 2000The long term perspective 1 20th Century priorities - International security and military might - Economic growth - Nationalism - From Totalitarian governance to Democracy

  41. Armed conflicts, 1946–2003(Source: Eriksson & Wallensteen, 2003)

  42. The ‘waves’ of democratization(Source: Gleditsch, Ward & Ward, 2004) 1990s 1960s 1930s % states % population

  43. Development From Wackernagel and Reese authors of the ecolo- gical footprint concept

  44. The long term perspective 2 A crisis to get through? (in line with Johannesburg 2002) - Safeguarding Biological productivity (e.g. in Baltic Sea) - Safeguarding Water - Safeguarding Biodiversity - Decoupling economic growth and material flows

  45. The long term perspective 3 21st Century priorities - Implementing a new energy regime with large consequences for both the transport sector and urban development - A stabilised population - Developing democracy sustainability strategies accepted in society

  46. In the Baltic Sea region • Population is stable • Social progress is part of the Nordic model • Democratic regimes are stable • Regional cooperation is strong • Renewable energy resources are rich We need to • Uncouple economic growth from environmental impact • Favour innovation and entrepreneurship • Recycle resources

  47. GovernmentsChangedpriorities Economic growth has to be replaced by sustainable development as an overriding goal to - support a healthy economic development, - achieve general welfare, - save the environment, and - safeguard natural resources

  48. The role of universities Education/Information The policy of education for sustainable development is gaining support on many levels Research All countries in the Baltic Sea region have a long academic tradition Cooperation with other actors Universities have an important role in offering education and projects for other actors, in particular companies and local authorities.

  49. Go Regional - Baltic Sea Region! www.balticuniv.uu.se

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