Planning Strategically Today for a Profoundly Different Tomorrow batiste@nais

Planning Strategically Today for a Profoundly Different Tomorrow batiste@nais.org

0 • The Demographic and Economic Realities, NAIS Diversity Statistics • Social Forces, Globalization, and Workforce Trends • The Shifting Political Scene • Student Perceptions, Aspirations, and Trends

0 • The Demographic and Economic Realities, NAIS Diversity Statistics

What trends, patterns, or realities seem to emerge or exist? • How do we respond to and/or plan for these trends, patterns, or realities? • What other questions should we be asking? • What other actions should we be taking?

Brutal Facts: Changes in School Age Population • After increasing by about one-fifth between 1988 and 2001, enrollments in both public and private schools are expected to increase at slower rates between 2001 and 2013. (excerpted from the Projection of Education Statistics to 2013, National Center for Education Statistics) • Enrollment in kindergarten through grade 8 increased 19% between 1988 and 2001 and is projected to increase 5% between 2001 and 2013. (excerpted from the Projection of Education Statistics to 2013, National Center for Education Statistics) • Enrollment in grades 9-12 increased 17% between 1988 and 2001 and is projected to increase 4% between 2001 and 2013. (excerpted from the Projection of Education Statistics to 2013, National Center for Education Statistics) • Enrollment in private (including independent) elementary and secondary schools increased 18% between 1988 and 2001 and is projected to increase 7% between 2001 and 2013 (as opposed to a projected 4% increase for public schools). (excerpted from the Projection of Education Statistics to 2013, National Center for Education Statistics)

Brutal Facts: Levels of Education and Income • The share of children to be raised in families with college-educated parents is projected to increase from 27% in 1990 to 30% in 2015, including: (excerpted from Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2001, The College Board) -15% of Black/African American children and 13% of Hispanic/Latino children are projected to be raised by college-educated parents, compared to 12% and 10% respectively. -More than half (51%) of Asian/Asian American children are projected to be raised by college-educated parents in 2015, compared to 45% in 1990. -The share of White/European American children raised by college-educated parents is projected to increase from 32% in 1990 to 38% in 2015. • Overall, more than twice as many minority children are projected to be raised by college-educated parents in 2015 than in 1990.

Brutal Facts: The Changing Consumer, Data-Driven Decision Making, and What Attracts Parents to Independent Schools • Independent school leaders cite a growing consumer attitude that is harder and harder to manage. (NAIS’s 2004 Hot Issues Survey) • As tuitions rise, parental expectations for measurable outcomes also grow. They want hard data about outcomes – college graduation rates, job satisfaction levels, etc. (“Trust us” isn’t working anymore. Helicopter Parents, HR Director complaints) • Current independent school parents highlighted the following factors as influential in choosing an independent education: (2003 NAIS Parent Survey) -Academic quality -Small class sizes -More challenging than public school options -Reputation for college admission • One of the top reasons for sending children to independent schools is dissatisfaction with public school systems. (2003 NAIS Parent Survey)

What Attracts Parents to Independent Schools Source: 2003 NAIS Parent Survey

What Attracts Parents to Independent Schools

Brutal Facts: Diversity • About 65% of America’s population growth in the next two decades will be minority, particularly from Hispanic/Latino and Asian immigrants. (Harold Hodgkinson, Center for Demographic Policy) • The 2000 Census allows you to check as many race/ethnicity boxes as you wish, making the resulting statistics difficult to interpret. (Harold Hodgkinson, Center for Demographic Policy) • Diversity is increasingly unevenly distributed. The 65% increase in diverse populations will be adsorbed by only about 230 of U.S. 3,068 counties, with California, Texas, and Florida getting about 3/5 of this increase. (Harold Hodgkinson, Center for Demographic Policy) • White/European Americans will make up only 58% of those in the 0-24 age range by 2015 (compared with 70% in 1990). (excerpted from Projected Social Context for Education of Children, The College Board) • The share of Hispanic/Latino Americans over the same timeframe is expected to nearly double from 12% in 1990 to 21% in 2015. (excerpted from Projected Social Context for Education of Children, The College Board)

0 • Students of Color Stats

Percentage of Students of Color in Independent Schools – 21.1% (106,492) Total Number of Students in Independent Schools – 505,100 1,055 Schools Reporting NAIS StatsOnline 2004 - 2005

Students of Color as Percentage of Enrollment by Region 1,055 Schools Reporting, 2004-2005 StatOnline East – NJ, NY Mid Atlantic – DE DC, MD, PA, VA Midwest – IL, IN, IA KY, MI, MN, MO, NE OH, SD, WV, WI New England – CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT Southeast – AL, FL, GA, MS, NC, SC, TN Southwest – AZ, AR, CO, KN, LA, NM, OK, TX West – AK, CA, HI, ID, MT, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY West Mid Atlantic New England Southeast East Southwest Midwest National

Almost half of the students of color were African Americans in schools located in the Mid Atlantic. • Schools in the West reported that more than 50 percent of students of color were Asian American. • Schools in the Southwest registered the largest percentage of Hispanic Americans, Middle Eastern Americans, and Native Americans.

Students of Color as Percent of Enrollment by School Type 1,055 School Reporting 2004-2005 StateOnline African Americans tended to be the largest group among student of color for schools with predominantly boarding programs, while Asian Americans constituted the largest group at schools with mainly day programs.

950 Schools ReportingStatsOnline – February 5, 2004

Distribution of Students of Color by Grade 1,013 Schools Reporting, 2004-2005 StatsOnline

Distribution of Students of Color by Grade 1,013 Schools Reporting, 2004-2005 StatsOnline When analyzing the distribution of students of color by grade, it is noticeable that upper school grades had more students of color – on average four percentage points than the percent of students of color in most lower school grades.

950 Schools ReportingStatsOnline – February 5, 2004

Racial/Ethnic Group as Percentage of Total Enrollment 1,055 School Reporting 2004-2005 StatsOnline

Students of Color by Racial/Ethnic Group 1,055 School Reporting 2004-2005 StatsOnline Multiracial Americans have experienced faster growth during the past five years, more than doubling from 1999-2000 (4,333 students) to 2004-2005 (9,202 students) – an increase of 112.4 percent.

0 • Adults of Color and Adults and Gender Stats

Percentage of Adults of Color in Independent Schools 14.2% (14,030) 888 Schools Reporting NAIS StatsOnline February 5, 2004

Staff of Color, Three Years 911 to 1020 Schools Reporting StatsOnline

Percentage Teachers of Color by Region 1,020 Schools Reporting StatsOnline East – NJ, NY Mid Atlantic – DE DC, MD, PA, VA Midwest – IL, IN, IA KY, MI, MN, MO, NE OH, SD, WV, WI New England – CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT Southeast – AL, FL, GA, MS, NC, SC, TN Southwest – AZ, AR, CO, KN, LA, NM, OK, TX West – AK, CA, HI, ID, MT, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY

Heads of School by Gender 1,202 Schools Reporting StatsOnline

Teachers by Gender and School Type 1,202 Schools Reporting StatsOnline

Administrators by Gender and School Type 1,202 Schools Reporting StatsOnline

Planning Strategically Today for a Profoundly Different Tomorrow • What are we doing that we should do more of given these patterns, trends, and realities? • What are we doing that we should do less of given these patterns, trends, and realities? • What aren’t we doing that we should be doing, given these patterns, trends, and realities? • What are we doing that we need to stop doing, given these patterns, trends, and realities? • What other questions should we be asking? • What other actions should we be taking?

0 • Social Forces, Globalization, and Workforce Trends

Brutal Facts: Socioeconomic/Class Issues • Forecasters predict that socioeconomic and class diversity will replace racial/ethnic diversity as a primary concern for independent schools. • “Biases among people are often rooted in class – more so than in race, culture, sexual orientation, religion , or gender.”Dane Peter, head of school, Brooklyn Heights Montessori School (NY), in “Class Bias, the Real Enemy”, Independent School, Fall 1999 • “By the nature of a school’s many diverse constituents, there is inextricably woven within the fabric a class thread which can unravel the prevailing mission to educate children.”Dane Peter, head of school, Brooklyn Heights Montessori School (NY), in “Class Bias, the Real Enemy”, Independent School, Fall 1999 • “It has been a great challenge for us as parents to help our children realize that who they are is so much more important than what they are.” Dane Peter, head of school, Brooklyn Heights Montessori School (NY), in “Class Bias, the Real Enemy”, Independent School, Fall 1999

Brutal Facts: Changing Family Structures • Schools will increasingly have to address the needs of children from very different family situations, as can be seen by the following trend. In 2003, (Bureau of Labor Statistics) -68% of children under the age of 18 lived with two married parents (compared to 77% in 1980) -23% lived only with a mother -5% lived only with a father -4% lived with neither parent • There are currently more single parent and dual-earner households than at any other time in our history. (The Employment Policy Foundation) • 71.1% of mothers with children under the age of 18 are in the labor force. • With many individuals shuffling eldercare and childcare responsibilities, schools will increasingly be called on to provide quality before-schol and after-school care.

Brutal Facts: Globalization • Technological advances, increased mobility and networking among people, and the liberation of trade and investment policies will lead to an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world. (The Trend Letter: www.trendletter.com) • Educators predict that in the next 25 years, more international students will come to U.S. schools, but more U.S. students will also seek educational experiences in other countries. (The Trend Letter: www.trendletter.com) • Schools will be called on to provide more globally-based curricula, as well as build educational partnerships with schools and organizations around the world (not just relief efforts). • Academic and language competitiveness – U.S. vs. the rest of the world. • More jobs and workers to move globally. • Online school, based throughout the world, may offer viable (and more cost effective) alternatives to more traditional schools. (The Trend Letter: www.trendletter.com) • “While English currently is the language of choice for much global business and international diplomacy, Spanish and Chinese are also widely spoken. In fact, in Asia, people now study Chinese as a more comfortable option to English for communication with other Asians.” (The Trend Letter: www.trendletter.com)

Brutal Facts: Workforce Trends • Flexible Employment will gain Popularity – As more people work flexible hours, work from home, and use technology to work for employers in distant locations, the traditional workday and workweek will further erode. Part of this movement will be driven by parents/guardians who want to spend more time with their children. (Excerpted from the Herman Trend Alert) • The Role of Women in Work will Transform – More women will rise to significant positions of leadership at the same time that other women are opting out of the workforce. (Excerpted from the Herman Trend Alert) • Telecommuting – Mothers and fathers will telecommute or “telework”, providing them with greater opportunities to support their children. • Traditional Retirement will Continue its Metamorphosis – Retirees will move into jobs in other fields, start their own businesses, and engage in other activities to remain busy and productive. Aging workers will explore lifestyle changes rather than stop working. (Excerpted from the Herman Trend Alert) • More Jobs and Workers will move Globally – Economic issues and skilled labor shortages will stimulate the movement of jobs and workers across political boundaries. Offshoring will become more of a global phenomenon. However, employers will discover that some situations are unsatisfactory and jobs will return to their home countries. (Excerpted from the Herman Trend Alert)

0 • The Shifting Political Scene

Brutal Facts: Political Forecasts and School Choice • Government, opinion leaders, the public, and independent school consumers will demand greater accountability and transparency from independent schools. • Growing options for school choice will put unprecedented demands on schools to demonstrate the “valued-added”. • Trust in the media will erode (consolidation of media ownership and recent press scandals) leading consumers to seek other information outlets. • Forecasters predict that the school choice movement will continue to grow and gain popularity.

Brutal Facts: Political Forecasts and School Choice -The percentage of children enrolled in public, assigned schools decreased from 80% in 1993 to 76% in 1999. This decrease was almost completely offset by an increase from 11 % to 14% in public, chosen school enrollment. Increasing, parents are able to find the choice they want within the public school system. (Trends in the Use of School Choice) -Public magnet schools in direct competition with independent schools (Greensboro marketing) -Home schooling may also have a significant impact on independent school enrollments. Home schoolers more resemble private school families than public school families, with the exception that they tend to be from lower income families. (National Center for Educational Statistics) -Virtually every state will have to enact at least some form of choice into the school system by 2020. -D.C. (Private) Schools That Take Vouchers Found to be Less Racially Isolated by Erik W. Robelen, Education Week (from January 25, 2006)"A new study of the federal voucher program in the District of Columbia finds that private schools that accept students using the government tuition aid have more racial integration than the city's public schools."

0 • Highlights – Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) 2005 NAIS Special Report

Students’ Perceptions, Aspirations, and Trends • What trends, patterns, or realities seem to emerge or exist? • How do we respond to and/or plan for these trends, patterns, or realities? • What other questions should we be asking? • What other actions should we be taking?

Number of Respondents

Planning Strategically Today for a Profoundly Different Tomorrow batiste@nais