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Expert Elicitation

Expert Elicitation. A Worked Example. Avoiding Bias. Basing judgement on all knowledge and consider all available relevant evidence; Consider the widest possibilities for a range of values and not be constrained by a particular value or range;

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Expert Elicitation

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  1. Expert Elicitation A Worked Example

  2. Avoiding Bias • Basing judgement on all knowledge and consider all available relevant evidence; • Consider the widest possibilities for a range of values and not be constrained by a particular value or range; • Be prepared to contradict your own previous thinking and statements • Be realistic about your level of confidence or experience of a particular subject; • Avoid decisions that might be biased towards organisational goals.

  3. Emission Parameters a) % that is Solvent based ink 75% b) % Solvent content of ink 60% 10% c) % inks used in unabated plant d) % lost from abated plant 10% a * b * (c + (1-c) * d) = 85.5

  4. Triangular Lognormal Uniform Probability Distribution Functions normal Distribution Types: Max Min Mean

  5. Min Max Uncertainty Mean a) % that is Solvent based ink 75% 74% - 76% -- b) % Solvent content of ink 60% 10% c) % inks used in unabated plant d) % lost from abated plant 10% Sales of Solvent based Inks

  6. Min Max Uncertainty Mean a) % that is Solvent based ink 75% 74% - 76% -- b) % Solvent content of ink 60% 10% c) % inks used in unabated plant d) % lost from abated plant 10% Likely average value range 65% Solvent 55% Solvent 45% Solvent 75% Solvent 60% Solvent Extremes 80% ? 40% ? Solvent Content Assessment 55% - 65% +- 8% Most Likely Least Likely

  7. Min Max Uncertainty Mean a) % that is Solvent based ink 75% 74% - 76% -- b) % Solvent content of ink 60% 55% - 65% +- 8% c) % inks used in unabated plant 10% d) % lost from abated plant 10% Min Max 40% 7% 13% Known level of unabatement Assumed all 11 plant are abated Assumed all 11 plant are unabated Assumed 2 additional unabated plant Of 11 unknown plant % of solvent Ink consumption in unabated plant 7% - 13% +- 30% Most Likely Least Likely

  8. Min Max Uncertainty Mean a) % that is Solvent based ink 75% 74% - 76% -- b) % Solvent content of ink 60% 55% - 65% +- 8% c) % inks used in unabated plant 10% 7% - 13% +- 30% d) % lost from abated plant 10% Min Max 10% 20% 5% 15% Extremes % losses due to Fugitive 5% - 15% +- 50% Most Likely Least Likely

  9. Mean Uncertainty Min Max 74% - 76% -- a) % that is Solvent based ink 75% 55% - 65% +- 8% b) % Solvent content of ink 60% 7% - 13% +- 30% c) % inks used in unabated plant 10% 5% - 15% +- 50% d) % lost from abated plant 10% Combining Uncertainties Approach 1 (Equation) Approach 2 (Monte Carlo) Use Good Practice Guide 85.5kg/tonne ink +- 29% Summary

  10. Elicitation Documentation

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