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Mysoltani.ir سایت

Mysoltani.ir سایت. فیلم روشهای مشارکتی. Technology Foresight. Foresight is about preparing for the future. It is about deploying resources in the best way possible – for competitive advantage, for enhanced quality of life and for sustainable

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Mysoltani.ir سایت

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  1. Mysoltani.irسایت

  2. فیلم روشهای مشارکتی

  3. Technology Foresight • Foresight is about preparing for the future. It is about deploying resources in the best way • possible – for competitive advantage, for enhanced quality of life and for sustainable • development. Foresight makes possible the identification of the opportunities and challenges • in the future, and what Government, scientists and engineers should be doing to meet them. • In doing so, it brings together the diverse players on the national science, engineering and technology ‘team’

  4. Although the future is unpredictable, some developments can be foreseen and alternatives • explored. Therefore, there is the possibility of preparing for the future (within limitations) • or to try to shape it directly.6 Foresight is neither prophecy nor prediction, but ‘invites us • to consider the future as something that we can create or build rather than as something • already decided. … The philosophy behind the procedure is that the future is a realm of • freedom, of power and of will.

  5. Foresight assumes that there are numerous possible futures, any of which can be created • through the actions we choose to take today. It is not so much concerned with predicting • as with inventing or shaping a chosen future from the infinite range of possibilities. • Foresight is not only understanding the system and looking into the future, it is also a • collective learning process with a view to long-term strategic decision making. It • therefore covers activities aimed at thinking about, debating and shaping the future.

  6. What is Technology Foresight • Technology Foresight is the process for bringing together in partnership scientists, engineers, industrialists, Government officials and others to identify areas of strategic research and the emerging technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefit.

  7. The foresight process involves four stages. It starts with defining the problem, choosing • the time horizon, setting the organizational framework and choosing experts. The second • stage consists of constructing the system, identifying key variables, gathering data and • drafting hypotheses. This stage is followed by an exploration of possible futures and • scenario writing with the help of tree structures. The final stage involves outlining • strategic choices, disseminating results and recommending a strategy

  8. In the Technology Foresight process the participants develop consensus on research • priorities, creating a shared vision of the future they would like to achieve. The process is • concerned with constructing a desirable but achievable long term future for the country and • with identifying the critical strategic decisions which must be taken now to make the • achievement of this vision more probable

  9. Why Technology Foresight? • Global, national, regional and societal trends all influence the way we live and the way we do business. • increasing rate of change of technologies and the cost and risk of R&D activities • This means that Governments and business must concentrate available resources and focus on areas of strategic research to underpin important national sectors and areas of opportunity.

  10. Governments and enterprises in the major industrialised countries have in recent years been trying to formalise their discussion of future prospects and current choices concerning science, technology, the economy and society, in order to assist them in prioritising their investments. Technology Foresight is widely recognised as a useful contributing activity to such discussions. It provides one set of useful inputs to the decision making process. It offers governments and firms a set of options, which can be the basis of strategic choices.

  11. At the centre of the process is the interplay between anticipation, appropriation or collective mobilization, and action or strategic will.9 For the participants, the foresight process can have a number of benefits, formulated as ‘the 5Cs’: • 1. Communication – among firms, industrial sectors, government and academia. • 2. Concentration on the longer term – normally, day-to-day pressures force us to focus • on the short-term, on ‘firefighting’ immediate problems, rather than contemplating • what the world might (or could) be like 10-20 years hence. • 3. Coordination – organizations can find out about what others are planning to do, and • hence can coordinate their strategies more effectively. • 4. Consensus – generating a shared vision of what sort of world we would like to • create in the longer term. • 5. Commitment – by involving knowledgeable and enthusiastic individuals in the • foresight process, one can foster their commitment to convert new ideas into action.

  12. Technology Foresight Process • A panel : industry, the higher education sector, research institutes and the public sector (20 ) • The participants made use of • ‘scenarios’, or pictures of where future markets and technological opportunities might lie. • Scenario-planning is a tool used in Technology Foresight exercises to test the strategies being proposed for each sector for their relative robustness in the face of any combination of future uncertainties

  13. The use of scenario-building is an important feature of the Foresight process. It facilitates large companies, smaller enterprises, the public sector partners and researchers to break out of the constraints of thinking about the future based only on current experience and trends. The systematic process of Technology Foresight can, therefore, be of immense value in fostering a new shared mindset amongst the partners.

  14. The Technology Foresight experience in other countries was that important benefits emerge from the exercise, such as better communication, interaction and mutual understanding between scientific communities, industry and Government departments

  15. Technology Foresight does not forecast the future but the process can ensure that the startegicchoices made now regarding the prioritisation of national S&T expenditure are 'future proofed'.

  16. Government should request all its departments and agencies to fully utilise the findings of the Technology Foresight Panel reports in all future and operational matters

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