North Korea Case Study

1. North Korea Case Study

2. Informative Data • GDP: 40 Billion US$ • GDP per Capita: 1,700 US$. Ranked comparison to the world: 191 (approximately 193 countries in the world) • Economy is centralized and focused on self-sufficiency • Defense Budget: 5.5 billion US$ • Percentage of GDP: 12.5% • Up to 3 million deaths due to famine between 1995 - 1998 • Exports: 1.684 billion US$ (world ranking in exports: 137) • Export partners: South Korea 45%, China 35%, Thailand 5% • Highest percentage of military personnel per capita in the world, and the 5th largest army in the world.

3. National Interests • General Goals • Economic self-sufficiency and growth (linked to Juche ideology) • Maintaining sovereignty • Strengthening military power and thus security (Songun ideology: military as the supreme power) • Remaining true to communist ideology • Being open to diplomatic talks on issues and improving international standing (Six Party Talks) • Reunification with South Korea (on their terms of no foreign intervention) • Specific Strategies • Developing nuclear weapon program, and appearing to possess nuclear weapon strike capability (nuclear reactors capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium and ballistic missile programs) • Maintaining Kim Jong-Il’s personality cult, as well as finding a feasibly way to find an eventual successor to maintain stability in the country. • Keeping ties with China, mainly because of economic support and China’s large influence and power in the Asia-Pacific. Important to note China supplies the DPRK with 70-80% of its fuel. • Farming opium to then produce heroin which is sold illegally overseas, bringing revenue for the government

4. Nature of Power North Korea’s power lies within their unpredictable nature, and this promotes fear among the international community as the DPRK is willing to do anything to survive, and Kim Jong-Il will hold onto power by any means necessary. The fact that they have the capability for a nuclear bomb and then coupled with the ability to deliver that payload using a ballistic missile, poses a major threat to states such as Japan, South Korea and the US. Because of this, the DPRK can use brinkmanship as an instrument of power to achieve their goals. This shows the DPRK’s considerable political and military power, and how they use both in conjunction to assert themselves in the international community. In addition to their nuclear capability, North Korea has a considerably large military, as much of the government spending (12.5% of their relatively small GDP) is focused on this sector. However the effectiveness of their forces is limited due to their economic weakness and lack of resources, such as fuel.

5. Nature of Power continued… The secretive nature of North Korea is maintained via its tight control over its society and who enters or leaves. This means external influence is limited within the countries borders, making political stability easy to sustain within the nation. This also creates difficulties for states dealing with the DPRK as they must only deal with the North Korea Government, all controlled by Kim Jong-Il himself. Kim Jong-Il is known for regularly rejecting agreements or even pulling out after agreeing earlier, such as their withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Additionally, the DPRK’s isolationist policies means they are not apart of many multilateral forums and do not have very close relations with many states. In export rates, they are currently ranked 137 in world, and only have trade partnerships with 3 countries, showing they have very few connections and a low flow of capital outside their borders. In conclusion, North Korea’s power lies within the difficulty to bring them to the negotiating table as it is incredibly hard to influence them through subtle forms of power, and their unpredictable nature requires caution when dealing with them, especially so because they have the capacity for nuclear weapons.

6. Security and Survival North Korea’s current situation of an economy which is crumbling and the resulting humanitarian crisis does not bode well for their future. Millions of people are starving and live in poor conditions. Fuel and electricity is in short supply meaning black outs are common even in the capital Pyongyang and cars are rarely seen. The collapse of the Soviet Union left North Korea without a major ally who was giving them substantial resources to prop up the communist country. This collapse followed by devastating floods led to widespread famine and up to 3 million deaths between 1995 and 1998. Only North Korea’s neighbour, China, is the major communist power left in the Asia Pacific. China has successfully integrated itself into the capitalist-dominated world economy, and grown exponentially. However, North Korea has failed to do this and remained isolated, leading them to a point where they cannot support their own population adequately. Along with these very real issues for North Korea is the fear of Western influence impacting upon their sovereignty or even a direct invasion and removal of Kim Jong-Il’s government by the US. As a communist nation, North Korea feels threatened by the capitalist neighbors of South Korea and Japan and their US ties. This combination of the need for resources to bring North Korea out of economic ruin and the fear of US influence and possible compromise of security has led to the DPRK’s recent actions attracting criticism from the international community.

7. Strategies, instruments and foreign policies promoting the national interest To survive in the Post-Cold War period, North Korea has developed it’s own nuclear weapons program. Beginning with the construction of two nuclear reactors, North Korea started to produce weapons-grade plutonium. These moves were made soon after the complete collapse of the Soviet Union, as North Korea felt they needed to establish themselves in the changing political landscape and protect their interests. The nuclear weapons program is a safeguard for North Korea, negating the chance for any state to use direct military force, such as invasion by the United States. This invasion fear is warranted by North Korea as President Bush declared them apart of the ‘axis of evil’ and have since invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. In 1994, North Korea’s intentions became apparent when they agreed to the aid-for-disarmament agreement. This meant that the DPRK were using, and still are today, the development of nuclear weapons as a tool to receive aid such as fuel and light-water nuclear reactors to produce electricity. Publicizing nuclear tests as well as long range missile tests further reinforces the fact to the international community that they can create nuclear weapons. This reinforcement provokes fear in the international community and in turn states like the US approach North Korea to stop the program, and the DPRK responds by demanding aid. This strategy using the nuclear weapon program at its centre, combines military, political and economic instruments of power to achieve its aims. Interestingly, this strategy North Korea has adopted goes against there strong nationalist ideology of ‘Juche’, that is, self-reliance in many forms, including the economy.

8. Annotated timeline of events and prediction of future events in the DPRK nuclear crisis. See Word doc “DPRK Nuclear Timeline”