1 / 21

Global energy 2010

Global energy 2010. On the base of GEM-10R model. Filippov S.P., Savin V.V., Beresentsev M.M., Marchenko O.V., Solomin S.V., Lebedev A.V., Tropanets V.V. Content. Description of the GEM-10R model Preliminary results for 2010. Preliminary Remarks.

cala
Download Presentation

Global energy 2010

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Global energy 2010 On thebaseofGEM-10R model Filippov S.P., Savin V.V., Beresentsev M.M., Marchenko O.V.,Solomin S.V., Lebedev A.V., Tropanets V.V.

  2. Content • Description ofthe GEM-10R model • Preliminaryresultsfor 2010

  3. PreliminaryRemarks • The purpose of the model development was / is to understand the current situation of the global energy and to develop forecasts of the future energy developments • Global energystudiesareoftenmadebecauseenergyeconomicssciencetriestounderstand: • how fast thedepletionof non-renewableenergyresources will be; • how territorial disparities in availabilityofenergyresources, whichcouldbe potential reasonsforeconomicandpoliticalconflicts, manifest themselves in global energysystem; • whatkindofinterdependenciesbetweenenergysystemsofstatesandgrossraumsleador not totransferofenergyresourcesandenergytechnologiesacrosstheglobe. • GEM-10R modeltriestogiveanswers on all ofthesequestions

  4. ModelGEM-10R World energymodelasmodeledby GEM-10R consistsof: • a setofnodes– R={1,…, ru}; • a setofenergyresources(primary, secondary), final energy (heat, chemical, electrical, andmechanical) and non-energyfactors (forexample, investments)– I={1,…,iu}; • a set of polluting substances (SOx, CO2, NOx and Ash) – P={1,…,pu}; • a set of technologies working with energy, for example, energy extraction, energy conversion, energy transport etc.– J={1,…,ju}.

  5. GEM-10R (a set of nodes) World f. Soviet Union North America Europe Japan & Korea Middle East China South America South Asia Africa Australasia 10 mega-regions+ world

  6. Hierarchy of energy resources and final energies Primary energy resources:- non-renewable organic (oil, gas, coal)- nuclear (uran 235, uran 238)- renewable organic (biomass)- renewable non-organic (hydro energy, wind energy, solar energy, geothermal energy,space energy) Secondary energy resources:- oil rest- gasoline- methanole- hydrogen Final energies:- chemical - electrical- mechanical- heat

  7. Set of technologies - 1 • extraction of energy resources (6types of technologies), • conversion of one type of energy resource into another type of energy resource(22 types of technologies), • import-export of energy resources from/to world energy market(18 types of technologies) and direct import-export of energy resources between regions (19 types of technologies), • generation of chemical energy(3types of technologies), • generation of electricity(30types of technologies), • generation of heat energy(8types of technologies), • generation of mechanical energy(5types of technologies), • removing of polluting substances(9 types of technologies).

  8. Set of technologies - 2 mega-region (SU, … - at all 10) Each technology j from the set J in mega-region rRin time tTis described by: • installed capacity- xtrj; • technological and ecological characteristics– atrij; • economiccharacteristics – ctrj; • minimum (btrj(min)) and maximum (btrj(max)) constraints. Technology group (Chem, Conv, Elec, … - at all 8 for mega-region) Type of technology (different number of types) Technology (5 - 8 technologies in every technology type)

  9. The ideaofthe GEM-10R Foreach region rR(and for each time period) tTexogeneous development constraints are given. For example, • needs for final energy consumption (btri); • resource constraints (btri); • financial constraints(btri); • ecological constraints (btrp). On the base of these constraints a set of scenarios is formedS={1,…,su}. For each scenario a linear programming problem is solved: to find such an global (mega-regional) energy structure (xopt) that minimizes the goal function Z. Goal function – sum of technology costs through mega-regions for functioning of the world (mega-regional) energy system.

  10. Set ofscenarios strong • „Realistic“ scenario • „Notechnologyconstraints“ scenario • „Pollution does not matter“scenario • „Ressource abundance“ scenario • „Nofinancialconstraints“ scenario • „Drop in demography“ scenario weak

  11. Mathematicsof GEM-10R Constraints Global Regional - extractions constraints for primary energy - balance equations for primary energy - balance equations for secondary energy - final energy production constraints - electricity production constraints (installedcapacityconstraints) - electricity consumption balance - pollution constraints - investments constraints - lower and upper bound constraints - global constraint for CO2 - balance constraints for import and export of primary andsecondary energy resources and investments

  12. Preliminaryresults 2010

  13. Feasiblesolutionsforthesetofscenarios strong • „Realistic“ scenario (SU, AZ, LA, ME, AF, World) • „Notechnologyconstraints“ scenario (NA) • „Pollution does not matter“scenario (CH, EU) • „Ressource abundance“ scenario (AS, JK) - ! • „Nofinancialconstraints“ scenario • „Drop in demography“ scenario weak

  14. Comparisonofresults2010(onlyformerSoviet Union) 56,149 All Energy (Production) -49,596 All Energy (Consumption)

  15. Comparisonofresults2010(all 10 mega-regions) 129,101 All Energy (Production) -42,288 All Energy (Consumption)

  16. Comparisonofresults2010(onlyformerSoviet Union vs. all 10 mega-regions) Primary EnergyProduction(alone - 56,14 mln TJ/y; withtheworld- 129,10 mln TJ/y) Primary EnergyConsumption(alone - -49,596 mln TJ/y; withtheworld- -42,287 mln TJ/y)

  17. Comparisonofresults2010(model vs. realityfor SU) Primary EnergyProduction(alone - 56,14 mln TJ/y; withtheworld- 129,10 mln TJ/y; BP data – 65,53 mln TJ/y) **consumption Primary EnergyConsumption(alone - -49,596 mln TJ/y; withtheworld- -42,287 mln TJ/y; BP data- -33,77986515 mln TJ/y) *SU = Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan(all BP data are from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2011)

  18. World energystructure** coal export U235 export oil, gas and U235 export oil, and gas export * Production + Consumption + Import/Export ~= 0 because of efficiency losses etc. ** Upper limit for technologies is 1095 GW of installed capacity

  19. Pollution RealityModel

  20. Conclusions • 5 mega-regions (NA, CH, EU, JK, AS) do not have a feasibleenergystructurewithouttheworld in „realistic“ scenario, so they „need“ world • Interdependenciesinfluencethe mega-regional energystructure (shown on theexampleofthe SU) • Thereissome non-coincidencebetweenthemodelresultsandthe real world -> needforimprovement

  21. ThankYouforYourattention ACNOWLEDGEMENT This research project is carried out under the financial grant of Russian Foundation for Basic Research, №10-06-00538-a(PrincipalInvestigators: Corr.-Acad. Prof. Dr. Sergey FilippovandDr. Dr. VladislavSavin)

More Related