MAKING SENSE OF OUR TIMES:

1. MAKING SENSE OF OUR TIMES: Tracking the Economic and Demographic Changes Through 28 Years of Houston Surveys STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG The Latest Findings from the Houston Area Survey July 2009

2. HOUSTON, FROM 1900 TO 1982 • This city was essentially a “one-horse” industrial town, focused on refining hydrocarbons into gasoline and petrochemicals and servicing the oil and gas industry (Thomas and Murray 1991). • Houston was the energy capital of the world, the “Golden Buckle of the Sun Belt,” the bastion of laissez-faire capitalism. Houstonians proclaimed themselves to be the epitome of what Americans can achieve when left unfettered by zoning, excessive taxation, or government regulations (Kaplan 1983). • “The ideological thrust in Houston has been anti-government, anti-regulation, anti-planning, anti-taxes, anti-anything that seemed to represent, in fact or fantasy, an expansion of the public sector or a limitation on the economic prerogatives and activities of the city’s business community” (Fisher 1990).

3. THE HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2009) • Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, the annual surveys have interviewed 28 scientifically selected successive representative samples of Harris County residents. • In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston Area Sur- vey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed. • The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of . . . • a restructured economy and • a demographic revolution. • These are the same transformations that have refashioned American society itself in the past quarter-century. For 28 years, the Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.

4. FIGURE 1: POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPOR-TUNITIES IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1982-2009)

5. FIGURE 2: NEGATIVE RATINGS OF JOB OP-PORTUNITIES IN RELATION TO THE OFFI- CIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (1982-2009)

6. FIGURE 3: “WHAT IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY?” (1982-2009)

7. FIGURE 4: EVIDENCE OF INCREASING HUNGER IN THE MIDST OF RECESSION (2002-2009)

8. FIGURE 5: HOUSTON AS A PLACE TO LIVE, COMPARED WITH OTHER CITIES (2005-2009)

9. THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY • The “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which this city was so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a new high-tech, knowledge-based, fully worldwide marketplace. • The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared. Almost all the good-paying jobs today re- quire high levels of technical skills and educational credentials. • In 2008, 74% of the survey respondents disagreed that, “A high school education is enough to get a good job.” In the 2007 survey,61% agreedthat, “There are very few good jobs in today’s economyfor people without a college education.” • In this increasingly unequal, hourglass economy, “What you earn,” as the saying goes, “depends on what you’ve learned.”

10. FIGURE 6: TWO CONTRASTING QUARTER-CENTURIES SINCE WORLD WAR II

11. SOME PROVOCATIVE QUOTATIONS • “Gone forever are the days when a high school graduate could go to work on an assembly line and expect to earn a middle-class standard of living. Students who leave high school today without skills and unprepared for further learn- ing are unlikely to ever earn enough to raise a family. They are being sentenced to a lifetime of poverty. A generation’s future is at stake” (Tony Wagner, Making the Grade, 2002). • “No country in the world, without undergoing military defeat or internal revolution, has ever experienced such a sharp re- distribution of earnings as the U.S. has seen in the last gen- eration” (Lester Thurow, MIT School of Management, 1995). • “We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few. We cannot have both” (Louis D. Brandeis, Supreme Court Justice).

12. FIGURE 7: CONCERNS ABOUT UNFAIRNESS AND SUPPORT FOR PUBLIC PROGRAMS (1996-2009)

13. THE NEW IMPORTANCE OF “QUALITY-OF-PLACE” CONSIDERATIONS • Houston's prospects will now increasingly depend on the city’s ability to attract and retain the nation’s most skilled and creative “knowledge workers” and high tech companies. • This will require continued significant improvements in . . . • the region’s mobility and transportation systems • the revitalization and preservation of its urban centers • the excellence of its venues for sports, arts, and culture • the enhancement of its green spaces, trees, and bayous • the richness of its hiking, boating, and birding areas • the healthfulness of its air and water quality • Its overall physical attractiveness and aesthetic appeal • The public’s support for new initiatives along these lines has remained firm or grown stronger across the years of surveys.

14. FIGURE 8: CONCERNS ABOUT AIR POLLU-TION IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1995-2009)

15. FIGURE 9: ASSESSMENTS OF TRAFFIC IN THE HOUSTON AREA AND OF THREE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS (2005-2009)

16. FIGURE 10: THE IMPORTANCE OF A MUCH IMPROVED MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM AND OF INCLUDING A RAIL COMPONENT (1991-2008)

17. FIGURE 11: ATTITUDES TOWARDPOPULATION GROWTH AND URBAN PLANNING (2007-2009)

18. FIGURE 12: HOW WORRIED ABOUT BECOM-ING THE VICTIM OF A CRIME? (1995-2009)

19. U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY BEFORE AND AFTER THE REFORM ACT OF 1965 • Between 1492 and 1965, 82 percent of all the people in the world who came to American shores came from Europe. • Under the notorious 1924 “National Origins Quota Act,” U.S. immigration was dramatically reduced, and newcomers were restricted almost entirely to the “Nordics” of Western Europe. • In 1965, the “Hart-Celler Act” for the first time accepted large numbers of non-Europeans, with preferences based primarily on family reunification, professional skills, or refugee status. • As a result, major new immigrant flows — non-European and of striking socioeconomic diversity — are rapidly transforming the composition of the Houston, and American, populations.

20. FIGURE 13: THE NUMBERS OF DOCUMENTED U.S. IMMIGRANTS, BY DECADE (1820-2000) Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov).

21. THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION • Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y.C., and closely following upon Miami, San Francisco, and Chi- cago, Houston is at the forefront of the new diversity that is refashioning the socio-political landscape of urban America. • Throughout all of its history . . . • this was essentially a bi-racial Southern city, • dominated and controlled, in an automatic, taken- for-granted way, by white men. • Today . . . • Houston is one of the most culturally diverse metro-politan areas in the country, and • all of its ethnic communities are now “minorities.”

22. FIGURE 14: THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFOR-MATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2007) Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov); classifications based on Texas State Data Center conventions; total populations are given in parentheses; *from the 2007 Official Population Estimates.

23. FIGURE 15: THEDEMOGRAPHICS OF THE TEN COUNTIES IN HOUSTON’S METRO AREA (2006)

24. INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE • The other demographic revolution: the remarkable “aging,” or “graying,” of the American population. • Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, as are the 76 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964, now aged 45 to 63. In the next 30 years, the numbers over age 65 will double. • The younger cohorts, who will replace the “Baby Boomers,” are disproportionately non-Anglo and far less privileged. • The “aging of America” is thus a division not only by genera- tion, but also by socioeconomic status and ethnic background. • Nowhere is this ongoing transformation more clearly seen than in the age distributions of the Harris County population.

25. FIGURE 16: THE PROPORTIONS IN FOUR AGE GROUPS WHO ARE ANGLO, BLACK, LATINO, AND ASIAN OR OTHER (2004-2009, COMBINED)

26. FIGURE 17: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN FIVE HOUSTON COMMUNITIES (1994-2009)

27. FIGURE 18: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTIN FIVE LATINO COMMUNITIES (1994-2009)

28. THE NEW IMMIGRATION: TWO VIEWS* • The dominant pessimistic story: Immigration is increasing dramatically, and it is producing a rapidly growing population of unassimilable foreigners. English will soon lose its status as the nation’s language. Poverty will grow, placing ever greater pressure on America’s already-overburdened taxpayers. The country is being swamped by a rising tide it cannot absorb. • A different story of the future: After accelerating in the 1990s, immigration has leveled off. The newcomers are moving out of poverty and assimilating at least as rapidly as the earlier immi- grants from Europe. The baby boomers will soon retire, and to- day’s immigrants and their childrenwill be the voters and citi- zens, the workers and taxpayers of America in the new century. • * From: Dowell Myers. 2007. Immigrants and Boomers: Forging a New Social Contract for the • Future of America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

29. FIGURE 19: MEASURES OF SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2009)

30. FIGURE 20: INDICATORS OF ASSIMILATION AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN THE U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2009)

31. FIGURE 21: POSITIVE RATINGS OF “THE RELA-TIONS AMONG ETHNIC GROUPS” (1992-2009)

32. FIGURE 22: CHANGING ATTITUDES TOWARD HOUSTON’S ETHNIC DIVERSITY (1994–2009)

33. FIGURE 23: THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THE KATRINA EVACUEES (2006-2009)

34. FIGURE 24: ATTITUDES TOWARD “ILLEGAL” IMMIGRANTS IN HOUSTON (2007-2009)

35. FIGURE 25: PERSPECTIVES ON ABORTION RIGHTS (FROM 1997 THROUGH 2009)

36. FIGURE 26: SINGLE ISSUE VOTING AMONG “PRO-CHOICE” AND “PRO-LIFE” RESPONDENTS

37. FIGURE 27: BELIEFS ABOUT HOMOSEXUALITY (FROM 1997 THROUGH 2009)

38. FIGURE 28: SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (FROM 1991 THROUGH 2009)

39. FIGURE 29: INTERETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT DISCRIMINATION (2006-2009)

40. FIGURE 30: INTERETHNIC ROMANTIC RELA-TIONSHIPS BY AGE, ANGLOS ONLY (HAS-2007)

41. FIGURE 31: CHANGING PERSPECTIVES ON THE AMERICAN FUTURE (1988-2009)

42. FIGURE 32: PARTY PREFERENCES AMONG HARRIS COUNTY RESIDENTS (1988-2009)

43. CONCLUSIONS: HOUSTON AND AMERICA FACE SOME FORMIDABLE CHALLENGES • This city and nation will need to nurture a far more educated workforce, and fashion policies that can reduce the growing inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass. • To attract the most innovative companies and talented indi- viduals, Houston will need to grow into a more environmen- tally appealing urban destination, and develop the research centers that will fuel the critical drivers of the new economy. • If the region is to flourish in the 21st century, it will need to • develop into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic • society, one in which equality of opportunity is truly made • available to all citizens and all of its communities are invited • to participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.

44. CONTACT INFORMATION The “Urban Research Center of Houston” at Rice University [Tag line: Turning Research into Reality.] Professor Stephen L. Klineberg, Director 713-348-3484 or slk@rice.edu Contact Rice University (at: corrul@rice.edu; or call 713-348-4225) for copies of the following publications: * the report on 24 years of Houston surveys (Public Perceptions in Remarkable Times, 2005) * the report on surveys in the six major sectors of the greater Houston area (Regional Perspectives, 2007) For further information, please visit the Center Web sites, at: www.houstonareasurvey.org or www.urc.rice.edu