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Odds vs. Probabilities

Odds vs. Probabilities. Odds ratio in SPSS (Exp(B)) is an odds rather than a probability Odds = success/failure Probability = Likelihood of success for any one person. Null model Odds Ratio = 26/24 = 1.0833. Specified Model Odds Ratio = 1.7313 (e .549 where e = 2.718).

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Odds vs. Probabilities

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  1. Odds vs. Probabilities • Odds ratio in SPSS (Exp(B)) is an odds rather than a probability • Odds = success/failure • Probability = Likelihood of success for any one person

  2. Null model Odds Ratio = 26/24 = 1.0833 Specified Model Odds Ratio = 1.7313 (e .549 where e = 2.718) Null vs. Specified Model What are a single person’s odds of passing given a one unit change in Aptitude? = Prior odds of passing x increase due to 1 point aptitude = 1.0833 x 1.7313 = 1.8758

  3. Probability Odds = x/(1-x) where x = probability of occurrence of event (i.e., passing) 1.8758 = x/(1-x) Solve for x, x = .652 Conclusion: A one unit increase in aptitude, increases the probability of being successful from 52% to 65.2%

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