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Step 2: Make a Causal Model. Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. This research was funded by Grant RO1 HL 084767 from the National Heart Blood and Lung Institute. Step 2: Make a Causal Model. This lecture continues from the lecture on making a list of causes. Step 2: Make a Model from Your List.
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Step 2: Make a Causal Model Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. This research was funded by Grant RO1 HL 084767 from the National Heart Blood and Lung Institute.
Step 2: Make a Causal Model This lecture continues from the lecture on making a list of causes
Step 2: Make a Model from Your List • Real world relationships • Visual network of causes & effects • Probability distribution
Combination of Multiple Causes p(Exercise | Ready to bike, Ready to shower at gym, Sleep early)= high p(Exercise | Ready to bike, Ready to shower at gym, Slept late)= Between low and high p(Exercise | Ready to bike, No plans to shower at gym, Sleep early)= Between low and high p(Exercise | No plans to bike, Ready to shower at gym, Sleep early)= Between low and high p(Exercise | Ready to bike, No plans to shower at gym, Slept late)= Between low and high p(Exercise | No plans to bike, Ready to shower at gym, Slept late)= Between low and high p(Exercise | No plans to bike, No plans to shower at gym, Slept late)= Low
Out of Sight, Out of Mind Breakfast time
Probabilistic Independence • If we knew … • P(A|B) = P(A)
Lecture Continues Step 3: Thought Experiments