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BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts:

BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts:. Overview and Recent Research Activities. Robert L. Brown Understanding Regional Economic Data for Policy and Planning Dallas, Texas September 8, 2006. BEA’s Regional Accounts Data. Personal income State, quarterly and annual Local area, annual

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BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts:

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  1. BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts: Overview and Recent Research Activities Robert L. Brown Understanding Regional Economic Data for Policy and Planning Dallas, Texas September 8, 2006

  2. BEA’s Regional Accounts Data • Personal income • State, quarterly and annual • Local area, annual • Counties, metro areas, BEA economic areas • Gross State Product (GSP) by industry • Annual for 81 industries • Regional input-output multipliers • RIMS II • For user defined regions

  3. Uses of BEA’s Regional Accounts • To distribute over $215 billion in Federal grants to states • Revenue and expenditure forecasts • Economic development planning • New business location and expansion decisions • Assessment of local impacts of development or disaster • Econometric forecasting models

  4. BEA’s Regional Accounts Initiatives • Accelerated estimates • New statistics • Improved estimates • Other research

  5. Accelerated estimates • Metropolitan area personal income • From 16 to 9 months after the end of the year • 2005 released September 6 • Gross State Product • From 17 to 6 months after the end of the year • June 6 release for 2005 total GSP • October 26 release for 2005 GSP by industry • Compensation of employees by industry and county • From 13 to 12 months after the end of the year • 2004 released December 30, 2005

  6. New Statistics: Local Area Data • Metro area disposable personal income • Researching the estimation of personal current taxes for metro areas • Subtracted from personal income to derive DPI • Some results… • Bridgeport, CT per capita personal current taxes 16,150—26.1% of personal income • McAllen, TX per capita personal current taxes 1,082—7.4 % of personal income

  7. New Statistics: More Local Area Data • Gross metro product (GMP) • Initial estimates—top-down approach: • Allocate GSP by local area earnings data • Research into bottom-up approach for non-labor part of GMP • Taxes and gross operating surplus • Research using sub-state Census Bureau data

  8. New Statistics: Longer Time Series • Carry time series back in time on a NAICS basis • Annual State earnings back to 1990 • In September 2006 • Will evaluate extent of BLS suppressions of W&S for counties • GSP back to 1992 • Requires back-casting Census Bureau data at Center for Economic Studies • Historical GSP on SIC basis • GSP now released (in April) for 1963 forward

  9. New Statistics: Interarea Prices • Indexes that permit place to place comparisons correcting for price level differences • Jointly with the BLS, using CPI microdata • Intermediate goal: produce indexes for 38 urban areas • Covers 87 percent of US population • CPI covers urban areas, so state indexes require additional data • BEA Advisory Committee presentation and Working Paper in 2005 • Article scheduled for September Monthly Labor Review

  10. New Statistics: Alternative Estimates of Regional Income and Product • Develop alternative household income measures that better meet user needs to: • Measure spending capacity • Track tax base • Develop alternative GSP methodology to estimate gross output and intermediate expenses

  11. Improved Estimates: Regional Multipliers • Improve methods to “regionalize” the national input-output accounts • Capture interregional flows of goods and people • Produce value-added multipliers • In addition to gross output multipliers currently produced • Much of this research will be undertaken with Commodity Flow Survey microdata • At the Census Bureau’s Center for Economic Studies

  12. Improved Estimates: New Source Data • IRS Information Returns data • Potential information on • Pension disbursements and roll-overs to aid in estimating alternative income measures • Non-filers who receive information returns but don’t need to file tax returns • Information to reconcile state personal income with adjusted gross income • Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data for estimating employers’ contributions to health insurance • Provide better interarea variation on health insurance contributions

  13. Other Research • Intra-industry Trade among states • The American Community Survey (ACS) and the Local Employment Dynamics (LED) datasets as substitutes for the decennial Census long-form • Interactive Web-based state and county personal income mapping

  14. Regional Working Papers and Presentations in One Location • Go To: BEA Home • Regional • Articles Tool Bar • Regional Working Papers and Presentations

  15. Questions? • Contact: • Robert L, Brown • 202.606.9246 • Robert.brown@bea.gov

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