Science Pub, February 11th, Cosmic Pizza Weird Science: Knowledge and Intuition at the Fringe

1. Science Pub, February 11th, Cosmic PizzaWeird Science: Knowledge and Intuition at the Fringe “teaching students to use uncommon sense to evaluate knowledge claims...” John Donovan CAMCOR (Center for Materials Characterization in Oregon) donovan@uoregon.edu (541) 346-4632

2. What’s wrong with intuition? "One Galileo in two thousand years is enough."-- Pope Pius XII Galileo Galilei ?

3. Intuition of Falling Objects Demonstration of Falling Objects!

4. Perceptual Intuitions... • Evolution of accurate, reliable (economical) behavior, although imperfect and fallible... • Cognition is faulty (much more than we’d like to believe)...

6. Audio Pattern Seeking Original Reversed We ask no one, baby oh babe, yeah… sleep with me, I’m not too young!

7. pareidolia a psychological phenomenon involving a vague and random stimulus (often an image or sound) being perceived as significant

8. Good Clean Fun? Thatcher

9. Are you paying attention?

10. Case Study: Homeopathy • First proposed by German physician Samuel Hahnemann in 1796 • “Like Cures Like” (he observed that cinchona bark, used as a treatment for malaria, produced symptoms similar to malaria when ingested) • What does homeopathy claim to cure diaper rash? • 8X (or 10-8) is allowable concentration of arsenic in US water • 12X (or 10-12) is “a pinch of salt in the Atlantic Ocean” • 24X (or 10-24) has a 60% chance of containing one molecule per mole • 33X (or 10-33) dilution commonly seen in pharmacies and stores • 60X (or 10-60) Hahnemann recommended as “standard dose” • 100X (or 10-100) dilution for poison ivy “dose” (1080 atoms in universe) • 400X (or 10-400) dilution for popular flu remedy “Oscillococcinum” “Claims of homeopathy's efficacy beyond the placebo effect are unsupported by the collective weight of scientific and clinical evidence.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeopathy

11. So What’s Wrong With Being Wrong? • Over the last 15 years 90% of the rhinos have been killed by poachers who sell their horns on the black market. • 600 Black bears were killed in the Great Smoky Mountains during the last three years and their gall bladders exported to Korea. “The Lancet today finally retracted the paper that sparked a crisis in MMR vaccination across the UK, following the General Medical Council's decision that its lead author, Andrew Wakefield, had been dishonest.” http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/feb/02/lancet-retracts-mmr-paper CDC estimates that 463 children have died in the US from not being MMR vaccinated in the last 3 years

12. ATSC (UK) Ltd ‘ADE "Advanced Detection Equipment" is said by its makers to be able to detect "all known drug and explosive based substances", using "non-vapour"methods. A simple plastic holder is fitted with a special piece of cardboard which has been prepared using "the proprietary process of electrostatic matching of the ionic charge and structure of the substance" to be detected. There is no power source or electronics - the device is said to be "charged" by the body of the user.’ http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/01/22/dowsing_rod_bomb_detector_bust/ ‘The device works “on the same principle as a Ouija board” - the power of suggestion - said a retired United States Air Force officer, Lt. Col. Hal Bidlack, The Iraqi government has purchased more than 1,500 of the devices, known as the ADE 651, at costs from $16,500 to $60,000 each. Nearly every police checkpoint, and many Iraqi military checkpoints, have one of the devices, which are now normally used in place of physical inspections of vehicles.’ http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/04/world/middleeast/04sensors.html

13. “Uncommon Sense” Knowledge: Justified belief or belief based on evidence • Useful (science, technology, medicine, etc.) • Fruitful (improved understanding, insight, avoidance of undesirable outcomes) • Valuable (advantage of information, get paid for your knowledge) • Beautiful (complexity of universe, diversity of life, interconnectedness of systems)

14. Sources of Knowledge • Perception/memory (sensory, cognitive, psychological, intuition (instinctual behavior) • Personal learned experience (contingent experience) • Revelation or introspection • Tradition/authority (culture, law, religion) • Scholarly (scientific, historical, legal, medical, etc.)

15. Knowledge at the University • Scholarship: science, history, literature • Medicine: disease causation, treatment, prevention (nutrition, hygiene, etc.) • Law: forensics, criminal justice, social justice, political justice • Life: decision making, deceit detection, advertising, propaganda, risk avoidance, survival

16. Impediments to teaching scholarship and critical evaluation of sources “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool” Richard P. Feynman

17. Allow me to rephrase that... "Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872 "The more important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have all been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the possibility of their ever being supplanted in consequence of new discoveries is exceedingly remote." Albert. A. Michelson, speech at the dedication of Ryerson Physics Lab, U. of Chicago, 1894 "X-rays are a hoax." Lord Kelvin, physicist (c. 1900) "The energy produced by the atom is a very poor kind of thing. Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformation of these atoms is talking moonshine." Ernst Rutherford, 1933 “No one will ever need more than 640K of RAM”, Bill Gates, 1981 “Science advances one funeral at a time”, Max Planck

18. 1. We prefer stories to statistics Units of deaths per billion with one hour of risk exposure: Giving This lecture: < 1 Being vaccinated: 1.3 Living where snakes are present: 3.8 Rail or bus travel in USA: 10.0 Child asleep in crib: 140 Being struck by lightning: 200 Amateur Boxing: 450 Climbing Stairs: 550 Coal Mining: 910 Hunting: 950 Automobile Travel: 1200 Air travel: 1450 Cigarette Smoking: 2600 Small boat boating: 3000 Swimming: 3650 Motorcycle riding: 6280 Serving in Vietnam: 7935 Canoeing: 10000 Motorcycle racing: 35000 Alpine Mountaineering: 40000 Professional Boxing: 70000 Giving Birth: 80000 • We prefer anecdotal/personal information • We evaluate risk non mathematically • We relate to emotional accounts

19. 2. We seek to confirm rather than question our beliefs • Pattern seeking animals • Behavioral biases “If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way.” Bertrand Russell

20. 3. Misunderstanding the role of chance and coincidence • Lottery games • Casino games • Gambler’s fallacy • National Enquirer effect

21. 4. Trusting the reliability of our senses • Distraction and hallucinations are common • Perception is influenced by expectation

22. Are You Hallucinating Yet?

24. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llonA5RtpUM&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llonA5RtpUM&feature=player_embedded

26. Are squares A and B the same shade of gray?

28. 5. Inability to grasp magnitudes/properties outside of evolutionary historical experience • Deep space • Deep time • Deep size

29. 50% of American adults think that the world is around 10,000 years old! How much of an error is that? It’s like believing that the distance from New York to Los Angeles is 30 feet. Assume 13.7 billion years = 1 year, then: January 1st = Big bang 26th = first galaxies form September 1st = Solar system forms 21st = first stirrings of life November 8th = first oxygen atmosphere 30th = first sex by algae December 15th = multi-cell life 19th = algae on land 21st = land animals (millipedes) 25th = dinosaurs 30th = mammals (rodents) 31st 1:00 AM = early apes 10:30 PM = stone tools 11:54 = homo sapiens 11:59:37 = agriculture 11:59:57 = zero invented 11:59:59 = Copernicus

30. Quantum dots

31. 6. We prefer bad explanations to no explanation at all • Natural disasters, floods, storms, earthquakes • Cosmogenic (origins) • Luck, disease, insanity • HAAD (Hyper Active Agency Detection) Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. Bertrand Russell, Unpopular Essays (1950), "Outline of Intellectual Rubbish"

32. Conclusions for All of Us • We must gain awareness of our cognitive biases • We must learn how much we do not know • We must have a skeptical and questioning approach to life • We must understand that we do not require absolute certainty for reliable knowledge “In the discovery of secret things, and in the investigation of hidden causes, stronger reasons are obtained from sure experiments and demonstrated arguments than from probable conjectures and the opinions of philosophical speculators.”William Gilbert - first “modern” scientist, died 1603 Always trust your gut, but never assume it’s enough!